NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 2

by Aaron Smith - 9/8/2015

Boise State Broncos wide receiver Thomas Sperbeck

College football is underway! It was a good first week of college football, and I expect the action to just continue to get better on a weekly basis as we get more meaningful games.

The Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks report is back for the third edition. Last year was our first year for this report. Thanks to solid interest and some interesting findings, we wanted to keep this one going again this season.

The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top-ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week.

In our first selections last week, Akron plus the points was a loser as the Zips couldn't get anything going on offense. Western Michigan +18 was a winner. The Broncos looked competitive against a very good Michigan State team. Look for the Broncos to be one of the best in the Mid American Conference this season.

How did the Top 25 overall do in week one? There were 12 against the spread covers by Top 25 teams last week and 11 non-covers by Top 25 teams. We'll be tracking the cumulative result of teams in the Top 25 all year long.

Play #1- BYU +3 (#352) vs. Boise State- Taysom Hill was injured and is out for the year, but I think BYU is in better hands than most people realize. Tanner Mangum was ranked in the Top 10 quarterbacks in the nation in high school. Of course, he won't be as good as Hill right away, but I don't see the drop off being drastic. Mangum led the Cougars on their game-winning drive at Nebraska, and that had to give him more confidence.

Boise State is worthy of a fade getting this much respect. These aren't the same dominant Broncos teams that we saw a few years ago. The Broncos have loads more talent than Washington, and they struggled to hold on to win at home against the Huskies last week. Bryan Harsin still needs to prove that he is an elite coach, while I believe Bronco Mendenhall has shown how good of a coach he is for a long time. Boise State has a good defense, but they have a bunch of question marks on offense. A new starter is at both quarterback and running back, and this is their first game on the road. BYU has a nice home-field advantage, and getting three points with them against an unproven Boise State team is a nice value.

Play #2- Michigan State -3.5 (#392) vs. Oregon- While I would have rather had this number at the -2.5 or -3.0 that it opened at, I still believe this is a good play at -3.5. Oregon gave up 438 yards through the air against Eastern Washington. The Ducks secondary is much weaker than it was a year ago, and Michigan State has a tremendous quarterback in Connor Cook. Cook is the type of guy who can carve up any secondary when he has a bunch of time to throw. Michigan State's offensive line is one of the best in the country.

Vernon Adams arrived with a bunch of expectations. Adams should do very well in this system, but this is his first road game, and it's against a Top-5 team. Marcus Mariota's shoes will be tough to fill. The Spartans no longer have Pat Narduzzi coaching the defense, but Mark Dantonio is a defensive-minded guy, and I fully expect this team to stay very good on this side of the ball.

Michigan State is also hungry for revenge for last year's loss in Oregon. The Spartans have the edge in this one, and I like laying the points here.

Play #3- Fresno State +28.5 (#319) vs. Ole Miss- The Ole Miss Rebels won 76-3 over Tennessee-Martin in Week 1, but a lopsided win against a team like Tennessee-Martin does little to prove you are worthy of being more than a four-touchdown favorite against a respectable team. Ole Miss is a good team, but they have played Fresno State a couple times in the last five years, and both of those games were decided by 17 points or less.

The Rebels defense should still be good, but they aren't as dominant as a year ago since they lost a bunch of key contributors after last season. The Ole Miss offense was inconsistent last year, and they need to prove capable of covering a big number.

Fresno State is never afraid to schedule tough teams on the road, so the Bulldogs are accustomed to tough environments. I don't see the Bulldogs coming close to winning here, but I'll take this many points.

Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 1 Win 1 Loss (-$10)

Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week: 12 Wins 11 Losses

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