NCAA Football Odds: Line Movements & Last-Minute News for Week 12

by Alan Matthews - 11/20/2015

LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette

Some interesting scuttlebutt this week that LSU might force out Coach Les Miles if the Tigers lose either this week against Ole Miss or next against Texas A&M. If the Tigers lose out, that would make LSU a mediocre 13-11 in SEC games the past three years. Just a few weeks ago, LSU was No. 2 in the CFP rankings and unbeaten but has since been humbled by Alabama and Arkansas and seen Leonard Fournette's Heisman chances vanish.

The Tigers really haven't been in the same class as Alabama since losing that national title game to the Tide in the 2011 season (after beating Bama in the regular season). Miles' teams have had as much talent as any, but LSU struggles developing quarterbacks. Those Tigers offenses are really a thing of the past -- run, run, run. LSU is passing only 32.4 percent of the time, lowest percentage in the SEC.

Still, Miles is 110-31 with two SEC titles and one national title in his 11 years at LSU. One major problem with getting rid of Miles is money. If Miles is fired before Jan. 1, he would be owed $15 million, payable over eight years (twice the time remaining on his current contract). His assistants would have to be paid roughly an additional $2 million, so that's $17 million total And if you go looking for a big-name college coach to replace Miles, you are looking at several more millions for a buyout. Already you hear the name of Florida State's Jimbo Fisher. Not sure why Fisher would leave the much-easier ACC for the deathtrap that is the SEC West. He was an assistant coach in Baton Rouge from 2000-06.

If I'm a prominent LSU backer, I simply look at Nebraska with what can go wrong in firing a successful coach. The Huskers did that after last season even though Bo Pelini always won nine games. This year under coach Mike Riley, Nebraska is just 5-6 and has to upset unbeaten Iowa next week to make a lower-level bowl game. Be careful what you wish for!

Here are some news, notes and any line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

No. 15 LSU at No. 22 Ole Miss (-6.5): This line has risen two points from its opening. A loss week would mark the Tigers' first three-game skid since 1999. And Fournette might not even get an invite to New York as a Heisman finalist if he struggles here. He has combined for 38 carries and 122 yards in the two-game losing streak. Fournette's lowest rushing total before that was 158 yards vs. South Carolina. The Tigers will catch a bit of a break here in that Ole Miss linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche, brother of the Rebels' excellent defensive tackle Robert, was hospitalized this week with some non-life threatening condition and won't play. Nkemdiche has played in all 10 games for the Rebels and leads the team in tackles with 53.

UCLA at No. 13 Utah (-2): This has dropped one point from its open. The Utes lost control of their own destiny to win the Pac-12 South Division with last week's double-overtime upset loss at Arizona. Now Utah is tied with USC atop the South, with the Trojans holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. UCLA is a game back so if the Bruins win here and USC loses at Oregon it's a jumbled mess. Utah will be without its best player the rest of the season -- he might be able to return for a bowl game -- in running back Devontae Booker as he will miss 4-6 weeks following meniscus surgery on his knee. That loss can't be understated. Booker rushed for 145 yards and a touchdown last week to equal a school record with his 14th career 100-yard game. The senior has 1,261 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns this season. He also has 37 catches for 318 yards receiving. Joe Williams, a junior college transfer who began his career at Connecticut, will start. He has 78 yards on 19 carries this year.

No. 12 Michigan at Penn State (+3.5): This has dropped two points and I love PSU here because Michigan has been pretty lucky in beating Indiana and Minnesota on the road over the past few weeks, and Penn State is unbeaten at home. I also think there's no way that the Wolverines players aren't looking ahead to next week's game with Ohio State, which could be for the Big Ten title depending on what the Buckeyes and Wolverines do Saturday. I'm not a Michigan fan at all, but I have to admit that Jim Harbaugh is entertaining. He absolutely refused this week to say he's rooting for Ohio State against Michigan State even though an OSU win combined with a UM win sets up the Big Ten East title game. "What's the best outcome for us?" Harbaugh said. "What's best for Michigan is what I'll be (rooting for)." No Michigan coach would ever say he is rooting for Ohio State. Michigan hasn't won in Happy Valley since 2006.

No. 10 Baylor at No. 6 Oklahoma State (-1): Bit surprised this line hasn't moved yet because not it's unclear whether Baylor starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham can play. The freshman played through a back injury in last week's loss to Oklahoma and everything was supposedly fine on Monday for him to go here -- just a lot of soreness. When Baylor coach Art Briles updated the media later in the week, he said the recovery wasn't going as well as he had hoped. On the season, Stidham has thrown for 1,007 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has started the past two after Heisman Trophy candidate Seth Russell was lost for the season. Sophomore Chris Johnson, who spent part of this season as a receiver, is Stidham's backup. I love the Pokes here now.

No. 17 North Carolina at Virginia Tech (+5). Line opened at +6. If the Hokies players ever wanted to win one for Coach Frank Beamer, it will be here as it's Beamer's final home game with him retiring after the season. Beamer is 236-120-2 in his 29 seasons at Virginia Tech. He guided the Hokies to four ACC titles, three Big East championships and six appearances in BCS bowl games (one national title game loss). Tech won at least 10 games every year from 2004-11 but has lost a minimum of five every season since. The Hokies have the longest active bowl streak in the nation at 22 straight. At 5-5, they either have to upset the Heels here or win next week at Virginia to keep that going. Tech will wear some very cool all-black uniforms for the first time Saturday. As for red-hot UNC, it earns a spot opposite Clemson in the ACC Championship Game with a win or Pittsburgh loss to Louisville. An upset here wouldn't shock me at all. Virginia Tech has won 10 of its last 11 home finales. Oh, and my predicted Beamer replacement: Rich Rodriguez.

Got free picks? Doc's does. And for new clients we would like to offer you $60 in free member's college football picks from Doc's Sports Advisory Board of college football handicapping experts. Click here to sign up today. We never require a credit card for this offer, and you will never have to deal with a salesman. Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details.

Start:	December 11, 2024 @ 12:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
Free $60 Account Sign Up

Most Recent College Football Handicapping