When I wrote my last MLB piece on Thursday, I spoke about how much the ebbs and flows of MLB baseball can affect any handicapper and get them off their game. Luckily for me, I was only affected by it for one night as I returned on Thursday of last week to give you two solid winners that were never in question. The goal now is to continue the upward trend.
As we've seen lately, the Blue Jays seem to be able to hit the ball well, but their bullpen is going to need a ton of work in order to compete for the AL East and ultimately a playoff spot. The bats were able to jump all over starting pitcher Tyler Wilson and the bullpen proceeded to blow the lead. I was right, though, that Marcus Stroman is pitching very poorly, and his outing wasn't the greatest. He was charged with eight hits and four earned runs. Over in Seattle, the "under" I gave you was never in question. Both teams weren't able to get anything going until the last three innings, which ultimately ended up in a Cleveland win.
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Tuesday offers up a full slate of MLB action, with only one afternoon game taking place in my own backyard at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, where the Blue Jays play host to the Phillies. The best game of the night should happen at Fenway Park in Boston when David Price takes the bump against the Orioles' Chris Tillman. Both pitchers come in with stellar records and will be looking get yet another win.
I've had plenty of time this morning to load up and fire away on some sharp plays.
These prop bets are all based on the First 5 Inning lines, and I have the utmost confidence in what I expect to happen. As always, odds and lines are courtesy of 5dimes.
New York Yankees @ Colorado Rockies
The New York Yankees head into Colorado on a two-game losing streak where they were held to only two runs on 10 hits. The prescription to beat that funk is none other than the MLB hitter-heaven, Coors Field. Not only do the Yankees get a pair of games against a mediocre Rockies team, but their first test comes against Jorge De La Rosa, who has been absolutely dreadful so far this season.
De La Rosa was the Rockies opening-day starter but went 1-3 with a 10.18 ERA in five starts and then went on the 15-day DL. He returned for a date with Boston on May 24, where he was shelled for nine hits and seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. With a 1-4 record and an 11.41 ERA at that point, he was demoted to the bullpen, where he had one solid outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Overall, De La Rosa is 2-4 with an 8.81 ERA. My point is, this guy is terrible, and pitching at Coors Field will only do him more harm than good.
Despite losing the last two games to the Tigers, the Yankees have been hitting the ball well, and I foresee them being able to cause some damage in this series.
Taking the mound for the Yankees is Nathan Evoldi, who is quickly becoming one of the aces of the staff. He is 6-2 with a 4.42 ERA. Over is past nine starts, he is 6-0, 3.86, and his last loss was on April 20.
I expect that he will continue to dominate and nip the losing streak in the bud before it reaches three games.
Both these teams have played a lot of baseball over the last month or so. The Rockies just finished a stretch of 27 straight days with a game, where they went 11-15. The Yankees, on the other hand, played 40 games in 21 days, where they went 23-17. Since this bet doesn't usually doesn't rely on the bullpens, I will have to side with the better pitcher no matter what park they are playing at.
Pick: New York Yankees -0.5 - First 5 Innings (+125)
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
This is by far the ugliest game on the board tonight, and while it may reek of poor baseball to most, it reeks of money to me.
The Reds aren't the greatest team in the world, but they have been playing better as of late, going 10-6 after an 11-game losing streak. They come into tonight's game against the Braves having won eight of their past 12 games. They lead the NL with 19 homers in June, and I've seen enough Braves' baseball to know when the weather is right that the ball flies out of Turner Field in a hurry. Cue Julio Teheran.
Teheran is 2-6 on the season and has been prone to giving up the long ball. Of his eight hits surrendered on the Braves' recent road trip, five of them were homeruns. He gave three up to the Dodgers at Dodgers Stadium and two to the Padres at Petco… those aren't exactly hitter-friendly ball parks.
Teheran aside, the rest of the team is playing just about as poorly as possible. They have given up 30 runs while losing their last three games and are only 7-26 at home.
Taking to the mound for the Reds is Brandon Finnegan, who has pitched well recently. He has gone at least 6 1/3 in his past four outings, including a complete game against the Dodgers.
I fully expect him to be able to contain an Atlanta lineup that is ranked dead last in runs per game, third last in hits per game, second to last in batting average and dead last in slugging and OPS. I could go on and on, but I think you get the point. The Braves are terrible, and even worse at home, and tonight they go against a pitcher starting to turn his season around. They have little chance in this game, in my opinion.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -0.5 - First 5 Innings (+155)
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