We are exactly one month into the 2016 MLB season and there have already been plenty of storylines to go around. We have seen a rookie setting an MLB record for home runs in his first handful of at-bats and a pitcher who has been darn near untouchable and having already recording a no-hitter. We have also seen the NL West division being absolutely terrible up to this point. There will be plenty to watch heading into May, and for me it's time to ramp up the heat and start churning out winners at a better rate.
For the month of April, I was able to keep my head above water and check in with a 12-11-1 on the young season after going 1-1-1 on Thursday. It is always a hair-pulling experience when you bet on the worst teams in any given league, but it was the Braves who pulled through for me like the Cardinals' bats and Marlins' pitching couldn't.
Tuesday's MLB schedule is a full slate of games with all 30 teams in action. I have been looking ahead to this day since my last prop article and I absolutely love what I have come up with for you. Anything less than a 3-0 night will really erk me as I have the utmost confidence in my selections.
For those just tuning in, I have two key first inning props I focus on. The first one is "Will there be a run scored in the first inning?" The second is
"Over/Under" 3 Hits/Runs/Errors. I feel as this is the best way to avoid any bullpen nonsense and make a quick buck after watching six outs, not three
hours of baseball. My final prop selection is a team total, which can be profitable by riding the hot-hitting teams or going against those who couldn't hit
the back side of a barn.
Let's take a look at three of my favorite prop options that are on the board tonight. As always, odds and lines are courtesy of Bovada.
San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds
The Giants offense is clicking right now. If we throw out the 13-1 ass kicking they were handed by the Mets on April 29, the Giants have scored at least five runs in four of their past five games. They also did it against two of the top pitchers in the game in Jacob DeGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Not too shabby.
Now they go up against a Reds team whom they've already put up nine runs against last night.
Today's opposing pitcher is Jon Moscot, who is 0-2 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Not exactly the elite level talent the Giants have had to face recently.
Moscot has allowed at least three runs in each of his three starts and is coming off a start where he was pulled early with soreness in his non-throwing shoulder. This makes my eyes light up.
Take the Giants. Take the team total "Over" the number.
Pick: "Over" 4.5 -110
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Total Hits/Runs/Errors in First inning
"Over" 3+105, "Under" 3 -135
There is no beating around the bush here. I'm a Jays fan and right now this team is playing like complete trash. Whether it is a hangover from actually reaching the playoffs last year or whether it's a bit of bad luck, the bats are missing and the pitching is shaky.
This prop will probably depend on Marco Estrada getting through the first inning unscathed, and I believe he will.
He already silenced the Rangers bats in last year's first round of the postseason to the tune of one run over 6 1/3 innings. It's that kind of pitching that will make this prop a winner.
This season he has pitched very well and is the unlucky victim of poor run support, which is why he has a losing record.
On the flip side, the Jays have been hitting .162 while losing four of six. They have put up a grand total of seven runs - five in one game - during four straight losses in the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.
This team just doesn't have it right now, and until they show me they can produce a little more consistently I will continue to fade their bats.
Pick: Total Hits/Runs/Errors in First Inning "Under" 3 -135
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Will there be a run in the first inning?
"Yes" +115 "No" -145
Before the game even starts, I can almost guarantee you that it is not going to be one of those 2-1 pitching duels that we see from time to time.
Luis Severino goes for the Yankees and sports a 6.86 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. Opposing him is Chris Tillman, who is slightly better in terms of stats. (3.24 and 1.08).
However, this game will see a run in the first inning because both the Yankees and Orioles are somewhat clicking on offense. The Yankees put up a seven spot in their last outing against David Price, and the lineup has seemingly busted out of their slump. The Orioles offense has scored over six runs in three of their past four games.
The Orioles should have no problem putting up runs against Severino, who is almost assured of heading back to the minors should he falter again today. Which he will.
Take the "Yes" option and take the "Over" for the entire game.
Pick: "Yes" +115
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