The Gonzaga Bulldogs are always really good, but no one knew they were going to be this good. Gonzaga is a whopping 13-4 against the spread this year as the books struggle to rate them highly enough. Mark Few's team might be able to make that Final Four run this season. How about the mid-major darling from last year's NCAA Tournament? The MTSU Blue Raiders are 14-5 ATS so far this year.
It's the third straight season for the College Basketball Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks here at Doc's Sports. I'll be looking at schedule spots that could be bad ones for teams throughout the course of the season and then recommending plays based on those spots. We'll track the weekly results throughout the course of the season. For games that don't have a line at the time each article is written, the Bookmaker opening line will be used for grading purposes. All plays will be one-unit plays .
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Last week's selections went 3-2. Nebraska -1 looked like it would be a push until Ohio State made a jumper at the buzzer to win by a point. I attempted to fade Gonzaga coming off their win over St. Mary's, and that didn't work out. Gonzaga just destroyed Santa Clara despite being in a difficult spot. San Francisco covered the number easily over Portland in that selection last Thursday. Sacramento State won outright as a 6.5-point underdog against Montana, so that play worked out very well. Monmouth was a 12.5-point favorite over Fairfield on Sunday, but they won that one by 42 points!
Play #1- Play on Wyoming (Fade UNLV) on Wednesday, January 25
UNLV defeated Wyoming at home by six points on Dec. 31. The Rebels are coming off a double-overtime win at home against Air Force. UNLV isn't a particularly deep team, and the Rebels are extremely inconsistent on offense. I think this is a really bad spot for them at Wyoming on Wednesday night.
Wyoming plays their home games at a high altitude, and that allows them to have a much bigger home-court advantage than the average team. This year the Cowboys are running, which enlarges their advantage at home because the opposition is more likely to wear down. I'll lay the points with the home team in this one.
Play #2- Play on Fort Wayne (Fade IUPUI) on Wednesday, January 25
Fort Wayne lost two games to rival IUPUI last season, and there is some really bad blood here. IUPUI was an underdog in both games last year, and they will be a decent-sized underdog here. I expect Fort Wayne to turn around their recent slide in this game. Fort Wayne has arguably the highest upside of any team in the Summit League, and they showed that with their win over Indiana earlier this year.
Playing with double revenge against your primary rival who has shown you a lot of disrespect in the last year is a great reason to want to pummel a team. Lay the points with Fort Wayne.
Play #3- Play on Santa Clara (Fade BYU) on Thursday, January 26
The BYU Cougars had some really good teams in the last few years. Guys like Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth led the way as BYU impressed on a yearly basis. BYU doesn't have that kind of star power this year. Nick Emery is the Cougars primary ball handler, and he is questionable for this game with an injury. Even with him, I think this is a bad spot for BYU.
BYU just won at Pacific in a sloppy game this past weekend. The Cougars are playing their second straight road game. Santa Clara is playing their third straight contest at home. The Broncos were humiliated at BYU by a score of 89-59. Look for them to exact some revenge here.
Play #4- Play on Ole Miss (Fade Baylor) on Saturday, January 28
Why do the SEC and Big 12 play this challenge in the middle of the conference season? It doesn't make very much sense to me. In this one, Baylor goes to Ole Miss on Saturday before going to Kansas next Wednesday. This is the ultimate look-ahead spot. Baylor shouldn't be very motivated to beat up on Ole Miss when they face the team that wins the Big 12 every single year in their next contest.
Ole Miss gets the shot to pull an upset on their home court and pick up a signature win. I don't think they'll win outright, but I think they cover the number here.
Play #5- Play on Montana State (Fade Eastern Washington) on Saturday, January 29
The Eastern Washington Eagles play at Montana on Thursday night. Montana is one of the best teams in the Big Sky, and Eastern Washington and Montana have had a nice little rivalry in the last few years. That is going to create a tough spot for the Eagles game against Montana State on Saturday whether they win or lose.
If Eastern Washington pulls an upset at Montana, then this is the perfect letdown spot. If they lose in that one, they are on the back end of a tough trip and could easily run out of gas late in this game. Montana State has been playing well in recent games, and the Bobcats are still rated lowly by the oddsmakers based on some bad performances earlier this year.
Play #6- Play on Utah (Fade Oregon State) on Saturday, January 29
The Oregon State Beavers are terrible right now. They are playing without star Tres Tinkle, and this team just doesn't have enough firepower to keep up. Oregon State lost by 26 points against lowly Washington. They lost by 42 points when playing against rival Oregon on the road.
Oregon State plays at Colorado on Thursday night before traveling to Utah to take on the Utes. Both of these games are played at a high altitude, and this is a really tough road trip. It's a trip that can wear down even the best teams, and to me this is a perfect spot for Utah to demolish Oregon State. Lay the big number.
Schedule Spot Fade Picks Record From Last Week: 3 Wins 2 Losses (+$80)
Schedule Spot Fade Picks Record Season to Date: 12 Wins 13 Losses (-$240)
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