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Free NCAA Football Picks Week 11: Under-the-Radar Matchups Provide Great Betting Profits


by Chris Vasile - 11/10/2017

Josh Allen Wyoming Cowboys

If you've ever taken a legitimate writing course or understand what it takes to put together a great content piece, you would know that capturing the reader's attention with a great intro is paramount to being successful. Each week I try to captivate the reader by talking about the most prevalent or meaningful storylines heading into the weekend's football action. This week, I'm going to do something a little different. Sure, I could touch base on the CFP or the dumpster fire that is the Florida Gators or laptops on the sideline or even how "The U" is back for real.

Each one of those topics would make for a great intro and tie in well with what this article is all about. However, sometimes sports are just a good distraction for what's taking place outside of the spots bubble. I'm sure you have already heard, but this past Tuesday, Roy "Doc" Halladay passed away after his single-engine plane crashed into the water as he flew over the Gulf of Mexico. He was only 40. The news of his tragic death sent shockwaves through the entire sports world and hit home with my fellow Canadians the most.

Halladay spent 12 of his 16-year MLB career with my home town Toronto Blue Jays. Growing up in Toronto, during Doc's prime, I had the honor of watching him pitch every five days. He was a role model to every young baseball fan in Canada, and his work ethic was unmatched. To say he was the consummate professional would be an understatement. Halladay was one of the few players I grew up watching that I can say he gave an honest effort every time he stepped on the field. All of his accolades - and there's plenty - are both amazing and unfortunate. It's unfortunate that Halladay spent time on a Blue Jays' team that was mediocre at best. Despite Halladay's best effort and Cy Young win in 2013, he never could get the Blue Jays into the postseason. It crushed me to see him get traded, but if there was ever a player who deserved a title it was Doc. Unfortunately, the peak of Doc's career would be a perfect game in May of 2010 and a no-hitter in his first postseason start in October of the same year. Doc never won a World Series, but he did win the admiration of fans, teammates and opponents. Doc is statistically one of the best pitchers to play the game, and if you ever needed a guy to go the distance then Halladay was the pitcher you would hand the ball too. R.I.P Roy. Thank you for what you did for the Blue Jays and the Toronto community. You will be greatly missed.

With that said, let's use this weekend's college football card as a much-needed distraction. As I'm sure you already know, the purpose of this weekly article to help bettors find those "diamond-in-the-rough" type games with soft lines and increase your edge over the book. The majority of new bettors make the same mistake every week - they get sucked into the media's propaganda and all the "hype up" commercials on television featuring ranked teams. If those commercials are the only thing a new bettor sees, that is likely the game they will bet on. What these square bettors don't know is that the line has very little value left in it, and the books will typically win more often than not.

Tonight's card features three games from three different conferences. To start the night, Temple takes on Cincinnati in a battle of AAC teams. The Owls are currently 2.5-point favorites and the total is set at 47.5. Next up is No. 9 Washington (-6) taking on Stanford and BYU taking on UNLV (-4.5).

From a Top-25 perspective, there are several massive games this weekend involving ranked opponents. No. 12 Michigan State takes on No. 13 Ohio State (-15.5), No. 15 Oklahoma State (-6.5) takes on No. 21 Iowa State, No.1 Georgia (-2.5) tangles with No. 10 Auburn, No. 20 Iowa looks for another marquee win as they take on No. 8 Wisconsin (-12), No. 2 Alabama (-14) takes on No. 16 Mississippi State. The two marquee matchups of the night are No. 3 Notre Dame (-3) taking on No. 7 Miami and No. 6 TCU taking on No. 5 Oklahoma (-6.5). Those two games could essentially play out like postseason elimination games.

It was another close call last week as the winnings could have been more, but we had to settle for a win and a push. This brings my record to 9-8-2 for +2.5 units.

This week I absolutely love these two "under-the-radar" games on Saturday. I will use $100 as my unit of wager and as always, all lines are courtesy of our friends at 5Dimes.

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech (+4.5) Saturday November 11, 3:30 p.m. EST

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it". Or something like that. Last week I decided to fade Louisiana Tech as home favorites against an upstart North Texas team. This week, I am going back to the well and fading LA Tech at home, but this time as home underdogs. There is just something wrong with this team. They can't seem to consistently put together 60 minutes of football, and against their next opponent, FAU, anything short of a 60-minute effort will leave their Bowl game hopes hanging by a thread.

Last week the Bulldogs were outgained by 100 yards to a North Texas team that gave up 804 yards of offense to FAU just two weeks ago. You don't need to be a crazy stats guy to see that if FAU can move the ball with ease on North Texas that they should be able to move the ball with ease against the Bulldogs.

FAU come into this game on the heels of a 30-25 win over Marshall. There was a bit of controversy surrounding the final score and point spread, but at the end of the day Lane Kiffin did what he needed to do in order to secure the team's sixth win and make them Bowl eligible. Some may worry about the Owls being in a letdown spot, but not me. Kiffin will have his team ready to play. He simply has too big of an ego not to run up the score if possible and win as many games possible in order to prove to the masses he is in fact a good football coach.

If you need a little more convincing, the Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after failing to cover the spread and 5-1 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf. The Bulldogs are a measly 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games and 1-5 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

Pick: 3-Unit Play on #179Florida Atlantic (-4.5) -110 .

Wyoming @ Air Force (-3) Saturday November 11, 10:15 p.m EST

For my second selection, I am heading to the Mountain West Conference to find a winner. This matchup between Wyoming and Air Force is a battle of two teams trending in the opposite direction.

To start, Air Force is currently 4-5 overall and was just shut out by their military counterparts, Army, by a score of 21-0. In that game, Army outgained Air Force 392-190 and didn't even attempt a single pass. I'll give you a minute to let that sink in.

I understand Army is a run-first team, and even that is an understatement, but for the Falcons to get shut out by a team that didn't complete a single pass is completely unacceptable. If there is one thing I can guarantee this week it's that Wyoming, with Josh Allen at quarterback, will be able to move the ball through the air with ease and that this game won't even be close.

Wyoming has won two straight games and just became bowl eligible after beating Colorado State last week. For those concerned about a letdown spot, forget it. The Cowboys are smack-dab in the middle of a conference title race, and they sit one game back of Boise State. The Cowboys need to win games like this one in order to take the next step and prove themselves as a legitimate conference contender.

Give me the team with the better offense in this matchup.

Pick: 3-Unit Play on #151 Wyoming (ML) +130

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