NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting March 9 Opening Lines

by Alan Matthews - 3/8/2017

I was hugely rooting for Milwaukee to upset Northern Kentucky in the Horizon League title game on Tuesday night as the Panthers were last in the conference in the regular season and their 23 losses would have been the most ever by a team entering the Big Dance. Alas, Northern Kentucky, a new Division I program, reached its first Big Dance with a 59-53 win (covering by a half-point on two late free throws). The Horizon Tournament was broken wide open when co-regular season champ Valparaiso lost star Alec Peters to a season-ending injury before it. Valpo was taken down last weekend by Milwaukee. There has been at least one team with a losing record in the past five NCAA Tournaments. Will that streak continue?

Seton Hall vs. Marquette ( -2.5 )

Big East Tournament game at 2:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1 from Madison Square Garden. Marquette is the No. 4 seed and Seton Hall the No. 5 with the winner almost surely facing No. 1 Villanova on Friday. Seton Hall seems comfortably in the NCAA Tournament and is a projected No. 10 seed in the East. Marquette is among ESPN's "last four byes" so MU needs this one more. It sounds as if the Pirates won't have their defensive stopper in 6-foot-8 junior forward Ismael Sanogo. He originally hurt his right ankle in an overtime win at Georgetown on Feb. 4. He eventually came back but hurt it again, missing the regular-season finale, a 70-64 upset win at No. 13 Butler that likely clinched the Hall's NCAA spot. Sanogo averaged 6.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in two regular-season games against Marquette.

Marquette won four of its final five games, including sweeps of Xavier, so the Golden Eagles should get in before the Musketeers do. MU's Andrew Rowsey was named Big East Sixth Man of the Year. In conference games, Rowsey is second on the team in scoring (12.6 points per game) and ranked among the league leaders free throw percentage (1st, .935), 3-point field goal percentage (2nd, .484) and 3-point field goals per game (4th, 2.4). Since Marquette joined the Big East in 2005-06, it is the only program to have reached at least the quarterfinals of the tournament every year. MU and Seton Hall split two close meetings this year, each winning at home.

Key trends: The Pirates are 1-6 against the spread in their past seven after a win. The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their past five. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine.

I'm leaning: Seton Hall.

New Mexico vs. Fresno State (-3)

Mountain West Tournament game at 5:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network from Las Vegas. Pretty much any school could win this tournament. Fresno State is a No. 4 seed and New Mexico a No. 5. The winner probably faces No. 1 Nevada on Friday. New Mexico's chances of winning the tournament got much better in its regular-season finale when star player Tim Williams returned from a foot injury that was thought to perhaps end his season. Williams played on Saturday as New Mexico ended a three-game losing streak with a 64-59 victory over San Diego State. Williams, in his first game since Jan. 30, played 31 minutes and had 10 points and six rebounds. The senior averages 17.5 points and 7.0 rebounds on the season.

Fresno State closed on a five-game winning streak. Jaron Hopkins was named to the MWC's All-Defensive team. During conference play, Hopkins averaged 13.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists and a Mountain West-best 1.9 steals per game. FSU is the defending Mountain West Tournament champion. Last season, the Bulldogs ended the regular season on a six-game winning streak before winning the tournament. Fresno and New Mexico split in the regular season. The most recent matchup was Feb. 18 and the Bulldogs prevailed 71-61 at home. It was tied 30-all at the half.

Key trends: The Lobos are 2-5 ATS in their past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their past five. UNM is 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings.

I'm leaning: New Mexico.

Indiana vs. Iowa (+2)

Big Ten Tournament game at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 from Washington, D.C. I rather hope Indiana loses as I'm tired of talking about Tom Crean and his future there. There's talk Missouri would love to have him if Indiana wants to dump Crean or if he simply wants out of that situation. I don't see him back in Bloomington. Hoosiers fans are delirious if they think they can get the Celtics' Brad Stevens just because he coached Butler previously. Indiana is the No. 10 seed and Iowa the No. 7, with the winner facing No. 2 Wisconsin on Friday. The way the Badgers have played of late, I might favor the winner of this game in that one. The Hoosiers did close the season with a rare good road performance, winning 96-92 at Ohio State. They have no at-large NCAA chances.

Iowa has played itself on to the NCAA bubble - ESPN has it among "first four out" -- with a four-game winning streak. This is a streaky team. It lost three straight Big Ten games, won three, lost three and then this run. Iowa's Peter Jok was named first-team All-Big Ten and Nicholas Baer the Sixth Man of the Year. Jok leads the Big Ten in averaging 20.2 points per game. He also ranks first in the conference in free throw percentage (.9202, 150-of-163). He could set the conference record in that category (.9206 by Steve Alford). Baer is the only player in the nation to accumulate 225+ points, 35+ blocked shots, 45+ steals, and 40+ 3-pointers. Iowa's four-game winning streak began with a 96-90 OT home win over Indiana on Feb. 21 in the teams' only meeting.

Key trends: The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their past eight Thursday games. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their past four. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

I'm leaning: Iowa.

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