MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
The Cubs and Brewers appear to be set for quite a battle in the National League Central this year. If the Brewers can continue to get the kind of bullpen work they have gotten so far this year, they should be able to hang around all year. Seattle sits first in the American League West, but hardly anyone expects them to finish in that spot. The Mariners are 21-9 on the season in one-run games. The Astros are 6-12 in one run games. Expect some regression to the mean.
Doc's Sports has done an MLB Totals Trends report in the past, and we'll be doing it again this season. This will be a bi-weekly article here on the site. We'll highlight the Top Five 'Over' and the Top Five 'Under' teams in the last couple weeks. The MLB season is the ultimate long grind, and it is probably the single best sport to try to find a team on a streak and back that trend for a while. Hitting can be contagious both in a good and bad way, and that can lead to some major streaks. We'll try to find some value in the totals market through this report throughout the season.
What does the totals picture look like as a whole so far this year? The under is 489-442 on the season (52.52 percent unders). Interestingly, extra-inning games have gone 46-38 to the under so far this season.
The numbers below are for games played from May 25 through June 11.
Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)
1. Houston Astros (11-4-1) Two things have happened to make the Astros a good over team of late. Houston's pitching staff has had somewhat normalized numbers instead of their ridiculous numbers from earlier in the year. The offense has also started to hit the ball more like they were expected to before the year. If everything starts clicking at the same time, this team could put together a huge winning streak.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (11-4-1) The Dodgers are back above .500, and they are only three games back of the Diamondbacks in the National League West. If this team were healthy, they would be the clear favorite in the division. Clayton Kershaw is the big name on the disabled list for the pitching staff, but he is far from the only important name injured. Rich Hill, Julio Urias, Hyun-Jin Ryu are all out and even Walker Buehler is banged up a bit. The Dodgers are 21st in the majors in quality starts. If Justin Turner can get completely healthy, this offense can continue to improve.
3. Colorado Rockies (9-4-2) The Rockies aren't the same team they have been in past years, but they have had more high-scoring games of late. Why? A beat-up bullpen is definitely part of the cause. Adam Ottavino has been out recently, and he is one of the best bullpen arms in the majors. I like to look for overs with Colorado when they are against lefties, because this team is significantly better at hitting southpaws.
4. Cincinnati Reds (9-5-1) It shouldn't surprise anyone to see the Reds at this spot on the list. Cincinnati's offense is pretty solid with Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Eugenio Suarez all healthy and seeing the ball well. It was just a matter of time before Votto heated up, and Gennett has been amazing all year. The Reds still have a terrible rotation and a questionable bullpen.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (10-6) After underachieving for much of the season, the Diamondbacks offense has been great of late. Arizona has scored at least eight runs in each of their last four games. Paul Goldschmitt has been on fire after a terrible start to the year. Arizona is still second worst in the majors in weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching on the season as a whole.
Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)
1. Baltimore Orioles (12-3) The Baltimore Orioles are a mess. This team wasn't expected to be good, but no one could have imagined them having the worst record in baseball this deep into the season. Manny Machado won't be in Baltimore much longer, and you have to wonder about a lot of the other guys on the roster as well. Baltimore is last in weighted on-base average in the past month at a miserable .277.
2. Washington Nationals (11-4) The Nationals offensive woes are largely thanks to their numerous injuries. Washington has a lot of key guys out of the lineup. Max Scherzer has been as dominant as ever, though, and the Nationals bullpen has been excellent. If this team can get healthy, they would be a dangerous team to meet in the playoffs.
3. New York Yankees (10-4) The Yankees offense is arguably the best in baseball, but their pitching staff is tremendous, too. The bullpen is the most dominant in baseball. The starting rotation was seen as a bit of a weakness, but they have been a really nice surprise. Luis Severino has turned into a top 10 starter in baseball. C.C. Sabathia has been much better than expected as well.
4. Los Angeles Angels (11-5-1) The Angels offense ranks 19th in weighted on-base average against left-handed pitching, but they are fourth against right-handed pitching. Keep that in mind the next time you place a wager on a total in an Angels game. The Angels defense is very underrated. They rank near the top of the majors in defensive runs saved, and that has been a key to their games going under the total so frequently.
5. Chicago White Sox (10-4-3) The White Sox offense ranks fourth in highest strikeout percentage in the majors. They rank fourth lowest in the majors in walk percentage. I don't have to tell you that is a bad sign for the state of this offense. The White Sox team ERA has been right at the league average in the past month, but I don't think this pitching staff can keep up those numbers. I'll look to play some overs with the White Sox if the posted totals get low enough.
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