MLB Totals Betting Trends for Hot Over and Under Teams
The most interesting race of the last month in Major League Baseball should be the National League West. The Diamondbacks lead the division by 1.5 games over Colorado. They are also only two games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers. All of these teams play each other a bunch in the final month of the season, so anything could happen in this division.
September call-ups are almost here, and that brings a bunch of new faces into the league. Be careful when handicapping the last month of the regular season. Some teams have a lot more incentive to win than others. The oddsmakers are going to hang some big numbers on the teams that have to win, though, so it is important to still look for value. I often make fewer bets in September in baseball because there are so many unknowns.
What does the totals picture look like as a whole so far this year? The under is 998-925 (51.93 percent unders) overall. Extra inning games are 96-77 to the under, which is certainly interesting, but not predictable for the future.
The numbers below are for games played from August 17 through August 30.
Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)
1. Detroit Tigers (8-3-1) This one surprises me a lot. For quite some time, the Tigers had the worst batting average in baseball after the All-Star Break. The Tigers have heated up a bit of late, and their starting pitching has been absolutely awful. Detroit has allowed at least six runs in six consecutive games. Nicholas Castellanos has finally heated up nicely for the offense.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (8-4) The Toronto Blue Jays have stayed a little more competitive than I expected. Still, Toronto was somehow swept by the Baltimore Orioles this week, and I won't be surprised if the wheels fall off the rest of the way. Josh Donaldson is close to returning, and Kendrys Morales is hitting the ball really well, so overs might continue to have value here.
3. Washington Nationals (8-4) Washington's bullpen has been a big problem in the past month. There have been a lot of injuries in this bullpen, and the young guys have been no better than mediocre. The Nationals sit at 67-67 on the season, which makes them one of the biggest disappointments of the year thus far. Interestingly, the 'under' is 42-25-3 in their road games so far this year. Their offense has been much better at home.
4. Boston Red Sox (8-4-1) Boston is easily best in the majors against right-handed pitching. The Red Sox have a whopping .348 weighted on-base percentage against right-handers so far this season. The next best team is the Dodgers at .335. Boston ranks only 12th in the majors in weighted on-base average against lefties at .318, so keep that in mind as you bet on Red Sox games down the stretch.
5. Milwaukee Brewers (7-5) Milwaukee was at the top of this list on the last report. They have continued to be a good over team in the last couple weeks. Christian Yelich has played better than even the very best projections for his production this season. The Brewers bullpen that was once elite has been very hittable in the past month. If Milwaukee is going to get into the playoffs, they need the bullpen to get turned back around.
Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)
1. Pittsburgh Pirates (9-3) The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has gone very cold in the last few weeks. In the last 14 days, the Pirates have a team batting average of just .239. Pittsburgh's bullpen is underrated, and they have been a big key to the Pirates being an under team in recent weeks. The Pirates have much more depth in their bullpen than the average team.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (9-3) The managerial change has gone extremely well for the Cardinals so far. The Cardinals are 21-6 in their last 27 games. St. Louis has gotten some extraordinary pitching from youngsters such as Jack Flaherty, Austin Gomber, and Daniel Poncedeleon. Miles Mikolas has been one of the most underrated starters in the majors this year as well. This is a dangerous team.
3. Atlanta Braves (9-4) The Braves have created a little bit of separation in the National League East over the Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta now leads Philadelphia by three games. The Braves have been road warriors this year. They are 39-29 on the road this season. They have some tough home series in the next month. The Braves play the Phillies seven times between now and the end of the season, so the standings could change quite a bit in the coming weeks.
4. San Francisco Giants (9-4) San Francisco ranks dead last in the majors in team batting average in the last 14 days at only .194. The Giants have a miserable on-base percentage of .252 during that time. The second-worst team on-base percentage during that span is the Padres at .286. I continue to see this team as an under team, especially after they traded away Andrew McCutchen.
5. Colorado Rockies (8-4) Coors Field unders have been very profitable to bettors this year. The under is 38-24-2 in the Rockies home contests this season. Kyle Freeland has turned into a star pitcher for the Rockies, and German Marquez has quietly turned in a nice season as well. Colorado hits left-handed pitching very well, but they have been subpar against right-handed pitching. The Rockies have a lot of home games between now and the end of the season, so we'll see if the value on the under at Coors Field continues.
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