MLB Totals Betting Trends for Hot Over and Under Teams
The MLB trade deadline brought a bunch of excitement this year. Chris Archer getting traded to the Pirates was an interesting deal. The Dodgers went all in once again this year as well, and that's a really dangerous team going forward. All of the contenders made at least one move, and I'm interested to see how the new pieces fit. Most teams are somewhere between 107 and 110 games into the season, so we'll have to start paying attention to playoff races before long.
What does the totals picture look like as a whole so far this year? The under is 804-759 (51.44 percent unders) overall. This number was at 52.36 percent in the last report, so the over has done well in recent action.
The numbers below are for games played from July 19 (first game after the All-Star Game) through August 2.
Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)
1. Toronto Blue Jays (10-3) Toronto was a seller at the trade deadline, and reports of the current players not being happy with the situation are all over the place. I'd be concerned about how these team will fare the rest of the way. They are likely overvalued by the oddsmakers right now. The bullpen is an absolute mess. If you are a live bettor, going against Toronto when their bullpen is about to come in should be a winning strategy. Terrible bullpen work is the primary reason this team is at the top of the over list on this report.
2. Baltimore Orioles (9-3) I don't think anyone expected the Orioles to be good this year, but for them to be more than 40 games out of first place at the start of August is wild. Baltimore had a massive sale at the trade deadline and got rid of most of their best players. This team is playing out the string. The problem here is there isn't likely to be any value going against them. I would lean to the over though with their lack of pitching.
3. Texas Rangers (9-4) The Texas Rangers had a good bullpen earlier this year. They no longer have a good bullpen. Getting rid of Keone Kela and Jesse Chavez hurt them quite a bit. They are now relying on Matt Moore and Austin Bibens-Dirkx in middle relief, and that hasn't been working at all. Texas kept their offense intact. The Texas heat has led to some really high scoring games when the Rangers are at home, and that is likely to continue for a while.
4. New York Yankees (7-4-1) The Yankees have had trouble beating the bad teams this year. They are 6-6 against Baltimore, which is unacceptable. The Red Sox lead in the American League East is solely because they have been able to take care of the weak teams on their schedule. New York's offense isn't as good without Aaron Judge healthy, but their pitching staff has been struggling of late. I'm not convinced Lance Lynn will fix their problems either. The bullpen is great, but this rotation is a question mark.
5. San Diego Padres (7-4-1) We're seeing a real trend here. Four of the five teams at the top of the over list on this report have traded away key bullpen pieces. The Padres got rid of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. The Padres have a team ERA of 5.08 in the last two weeks. San Diego isn't a good hitting team, but their totals are so low that decent hitting along with poor pitching can lead to a lot of overs.
Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)
1. Minnesota Twins (9-4) The Twins lineup isn't the same after losing Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar at the trade deadline. Minnesota might be second in the American League Central, but they definitely aren't good enough to challenge Cleveland in any way. The Twins decided to pick up some prospects. Minnesota has been shut out twice in their last four contests.
2. Boston Red Sox (8-4) Boston looks like a prime contender for the World Series this year. The Red Sox have scored 29 more runs on the season than the second place team in runs scored (Yankees). Boston's lineup depth is extremely impressive. Lately though, it has been the pitching staff that has dominated. This is a hard team to get a handle on for totals value.
3. Houston Astros (6-4-1) Houston's lineup isn't the same without Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. The Astros still have the extremely dominant starting rotation, and a very deep bullpen. Though Houston has been slumping a bit lately, I'm still very high on this team. Don't underrate this group. The under might continue to have value while their lineup is weaker. How good is this pitching staff? Houston has a team ERA of 3.08. The second best team ERA in the majors is Boston at 3.49.
4. Cleveland Indians (7-5) Cleveland improved their bullpen quite a bit at the deadline. Andrew Miller just came off the disabled list, and if he returns to his old form, this bullpen will become a strength for Cleveland yet again. Cleveland has played up to its potential this year, but they haven't had to thanks to a terribly weak division. I'll look for value on the under with their much improved bullpen.
5. Seattle Mariners (7-5-1) Seattle is 63-46 on the year, and they have allowed 468 runs and scored only 455 runs. The Mariners have been extremely fortunate to this point in the season. They are a major regression candidate. Seattle starts a brutal schedule on August 9 by going to Houston and Oakland, before hosting the Dodgers and the Astros. That will be the key stretch for this team.
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