Argentina vs. Chile Picks, Predictions Davis Cup Odds 11/19/2019
Argentina vs Chile
5 am EST, 19th November 2019
Hard courts (Indoor)
Last week of the season we'll see a brand new Davis Cup format. For the first time in history, there is a final tournament, where the best 18 teams are divided into 6 groups with 3 teams. Winner of each tie will be decided after two singles matches and one doubles match.
Argentina and Chile are part of group C, alongside Germany. This group looks wide open, so every match could decide the winner in the end. In the first one, we should see No.1's from both teams, Diego Schwartzman and Christian Garin going against each other. They played four times against each other already, each winning two matches. But, all of those were played on clay, a surface that is significantly different from these fast hard courts in Madrid. Both had a very decent second half of the season. Schwartzman played finals in Vienna a couple of weeks ago, while Garin reached quarterfinals of the Paris Masters.
In the second match, Leonardo Mayer is currently listed to take on Nicolas Jarry. If I was talking about success that the other two guys involved in this tie had recently, saying the complete opposite would be more appropriate for these two. Nicolas Jarry was in a massive slump in the second part of the season, while Leonardo Mayer never really was a big fan of anything other than clay courts. The doubles are currently scheduled to be played in these lineups: Pella/Schwartzman vs Garin/Jarry, although I'd be very surprised if those would stand in the end.
It's way more realistic that Argentina fields Maximo Gonzalez (34th doubles player in the world) and pairs him up with a 3rd singles player, who gets left out in the singles. For Chile, Podlipnik-Castillo is the doubles specialist, but unlike Argentina, they will probably be forced to use Jarry twice on the same day, due to lack of a better alternative.
I wouldn't be surprised if Argentina's captain Gaudio throws a curveball in the second singles matchup. Guido Pella was not in the best of form lately, but he still is a better hard court player (and better tennis player overall), compared to Leonardo Mayer. Watching some of the matches today, these conditions are really fast, so it doesn't make sense to put Mayer in there, who doesn't like the pace as much and is more of a point constructor with a solid topspin forehand. Pella as an agile counter-puncher is a way better matchup against out-of-form ball striker like Jarry. He will keep the ball in play and force Nicolas into commiting errors.
Betting odds & prediction
Odds are pretty lopsided in favor of Argentina and I can understand why. Chile is underdog in pretty much every rubber match and needs couple of upsets to somehow tilt this one into their favor. But who can pull it off for them? As I mentioned already, I don't expect much from Jarry, especially if he plays against Pella. In the doubles it will be difficult as well, since their doubles specialist is not even ranked among Top100 doubles players in the world. Christian Garin did way better then expected in fast condtions recently. He has a nice compact swing that allows him to be ready for the shot in these conditions and guide it into the corners nicely. The main problem for him is that his opponent can do some of that as well and is also one of the best players in the world. It's not a sexy pick by any stretch of the imagination, laying the juice with Argentina in this spot, but I really don't see Chile pulling an upset here.
Pick: Argentina -350
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