Free NBA Picks Wednesday, November 27 and Opening Line Report
We've got a 15-game slate before Thanksgiving! Of course, the NBA scheduling made sure to bring Anthony Davis back to New Orleans the day before Thanksgiving. It'll be an interesting night in New Orleans. The belief is that he'll hear many boos. But how mad can Pelicans fans be after drafting Zion Williamson and basically taking all of the quality young talent away from the Lakers?
Magic @ Cavaliers (TBD, TBD)
The Magic are coming off a devastating defeat against the Pistons, losing
by the score of 103-88. They've yet to win on the road this season. The
Cavs recently lost a close battle against the Kyrie-less Nets by two
points. Kevin Love took a seat with a back injury against the Nets. The
Cavs are hopeful he'll return to action against the Magic. Even if Kevin
Love doesn't play, the Cavs should win this one. Plus, if Love is out, the
line will only favor Cleveland more.
Key trends: The Magic are 2-5 (28.6%) against the spread as the away team.
Early lean: Likely Cavs no matter what the line is, Under
Jazz @ Pacers (TBD, TBD)
The Pacers have Brogdon back! The Pacers defeated the Grizzlies 126-114 on Monday as TJ Warren stepped up for 26 points on 11-15 shooting. The Pacers are very deep this year. However, the Jazz are deeper. Utah is coming off a devastating loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in a game in which they led at the half and probably should've won. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 25.6 points per game, while Rudy Gobert is averaging 14 rebounds a contest. I love this Jazz vs. Pacers matchup as a basketball fan.
Key trends: The Jazz are 5-4 (55.6%) against the spread when both teams have equal rest.
Early lean: Jazz, Over
Nets @ Celtics (TBD, TBD)
This should be the last game without Kyrie Irving. It hasn't been so bad without him, though. Thanks to Spencer Dinwiddie, who propelled the Nets over the Cavs on Monday with a couple clutch buckets and some big time assists. The Celtics really haven't been the same since Kemba Walker's injury. The line is delayed due to Kemba's potential return. If he returns, I would assume he would be good to play at least 25 minutes. If that's the case, Kemba should help the Celtics get back to their old ways. After all, the Celtics are 12-4 on the season.
Key trends: The Celtics are 6-3-2 (66.7%) against the spread after a win this season.
Early lean: Celtics, Under
Kings @ 76ers (-9.5, 209)
Joel Embiid had a night to forget on Monday. He scored 0 points on 11 missed field goal attempts as the 76ers took a big loss against the Raptors. The 76ers will get an easier opponent this time around as they'll play home against the Kings . The Kings are traveling all the way to Philadelphia for this one. The 76ers previously crushed the Miami Heat, who are actually playing solid basketball. The Kings have been mediocre this season. Nothing will change against the 76ers. 76ers will blow out the Kings at home. They're angry about Monday.
Key trends: The 76ers are 4-2 (66.7%) vs teams that win 45-55% of games this season.
Early lean: 76ers, Over
Pistons @ Hornets (-3.5, 216.5)
Detroit is dreadful on the road. They've won against the spread once in nine games this season. But you also have an argument for the Hornets. They haven't been so great, either. They've been average at home, winning just around 50 percent of their games against the spread. The Hornets actually came close to beating the Heat on the road. They just came up short in their comeback. I trust the Hornets more in this one.
Key trends: The Pistons are 1-7-1 (12.5%) on the road against the spread.
Early lean: Hornets, Over
Knicks @ Raptors (-10.5, 209.5)
The Knicks are actually staying in games right now. Their most recent loss came against the Nets, where they covered their three-point spread. The Knicks lost to the Spurs by just 7, and before that lost to the 76ers by 5. They're staying in games. But the Raptors have a tendency to blow really bad teams out. They beat the Magic by 20+ and the Hornets by 30+ this season. This game will be no different. The Raptors are coming off a big win against the 76ers. No time to slow down now. The Raptors know it.
The Raptors are 6-1 (85.7%) at home against the spread.
Early lean: Raptors, Over
Hawks @ Bucks (-14.5, 239.5)
This is a massive spread and total. Let's just clear the air for a second. The Hawks are brutal on the road. They get blown out consistently by 20+ points. The Bucks do that to bad teams. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a force this season, scoring 31.1 points per game along with 13.9 rebounds per game. This has all the writings on the wall for a potential blow out. I'm going to wait on this spread to see if it can go any lower than 14.5. But all in all, I'm on the Bucks here.
Key trends: The Hawks are 2-6 (25%) on the road against the spread this season.
Early lean: Bucks, Under
Clippers @ Grizzlies (TBD, TBD)
The Clippers have work to do prior to this article. They'll play the Mavericks and then play the second game of their back-to-back against the Grizzlies. There's currently no line for this game because the Clippers are playing tonight. I tend to stay away from teams on their second game on a back-to-back on the road. Whatever the spread is, the Grizzlies are intriguing here.
Key trends: Clippers games are 12-4 (75%) when the line is over 205 this season.
Early lean: Grizzlies, Over
Heat @ Rockets (-6.5, TBD)
This one could be a high-scoring affair. There's no over/under line just yet for this game. Houston has consistently hit the 120+ point range in their games this season. But the Heat have become one of the best defensive teams in the league. Earlier in the season, the Heat defeated the Rockets 129-100. Westbrook and Harden both played 26 minutes in that one. They were present. No excuses. The Rockets have played much better since their sixth game of the season, but not well enough to take away 6 points from them! I'll take the Heat in this one.
Key trends: The Miami Heat are 12-3-1 (80%) vs teams allowing over 102 points per game.
Early lean: Heat and Over
Timberwolves @ Spurs (-2, 228.5)
The Spurs lost a close one to the Lakers on Monday. Before that contest, the Spurs spent a couple weeks on the road. I've got news for you: it doesn't matter. The Spurs are finally turning over just as we all expected once Kawhi left. The Spurs are 6-12 this season and struggling badly. Minnesota has won three of their last four games. Their lone loss came against the Suns, losing by two points. Minnesota is trending upwards. The Spurs are trending to the top of the draft boards as they look for their next Kawhi or Tim Duncan.
Key trends: The Spurs are 1-6 (14.3%) against the spread as a home favorite this season.
Wizards @ Suns (TBD, TBD)
So, the Suns have come back to Earth. They're now 8-8 and are 1-4 in their last five games. Lucky for the Suns, the Wizards will have to play a back-to-back with both games on the road. The Wizards will be worn out by the Nuggets today and should struggle to score tomorrow. The Suns will cover, whatever the spread will be tomorrow.
Key trends: Wizards are 4-2-1 (66.7%) on the over/under on the road this season.
Early lean: Suns, Over
Lakers @ Pelicans (+6.5, 230.5)
No, Zion Williamson isn't healthy just yet. But Anthony Davis is. Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, and Lonzo Ball are going to be ready for this one, as is Anthony Davis. This was the big blockbuster trade in the offseason! Now they get to play against each other for the first time. Davis gets to play in front of thousands of Pelicans fans that will boo him. Forget trends and statistics, how do the Pelicans not get excited for this one?
Key trends: The Pelicans are 3-1 (75%) against the spread as a home underdog this season.
Early lean: Pelicans, Under
Thunder @ Trail Blazers (-3, 219.5)
Carmelo Anthony is familiar with both teams now. The former Thunder star put on a clinic, scoring 25 points against the Bulls as the Blazers snapped a four-game losing streak. The Anthony train is moving and now so is Portland. The Thunder recently just edged out a brutal Warriors team led by Eric Paschall and Glen Robinson III. The Thunder won't be ready for this new Blazers team, who are now riding a ton of confidence into this next game, at home. And by the way, Portland already beat the Thunder once this season. Make it two, even on the spread.
Key trends: The Thunder are 4-3 (57.1%) against the spread on the road this season.
Early lean: Trail Blazers, Under
Bulls @ Warriors (TBD, TBD)
There's no line for this one just yet. Maybe Draymond Green will be back on Wednesday. Maybe not. The Warriors can hope. But it doesn't matter. The Warriors have quickly become the laughing stock of the NBA with three wins on the year. All of their superstars are injured. This season allows the Warriors to draft another high-quality player around the team. They'll be fine. Just not this year. The Bulls should be able to use their star power and fight for this win.
Key trends: The Warriors are 3-5 (37.5%) against the spread as the home team.
Early lean: Take the Bulls no matter what, Over
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