Free MLB Picks Tuesday 9/15/2020 and Opening Line Report
We’ve started another week in the MLB. The season has been flying by, and the playoffs are just weeks away. It’s been short, but at least we’ve had a season with plenty of exciting moments like two legitimate no-hitters on the season. Who would’ve expected that? Anyway, here are the leans for September 15 in the MLB.
Blue Jays vs Yankees 9/15/20 (-161, 9)
The Yankees have started to return some big bats to the lineup. There’s no promise Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton will be in the lineup for this game, but the Yankees need a push to remain relevant to finish the season.
Deivi Garcia will get the start for the Yankees. It’ll be his fourth career start in his rookie season. He’s got a 3.06 ERA and a 3.12 FIP with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate. Garcia isn’t getting a high amount of grounders, but he has been fine when allowing runners on base.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will pitch Taijuan Walker, who has looked solid since being acquired from the Mariners. Walker is 3-2 on the season with a 2,95 ERAAA and a 4.8 FIP. He’s been very lucky as his walk rate is north of 3.5 and his home run rate is 1.27 per nine innings. He’s also been able to hold more than 85 percent of runners on base, which is fantastic.
However, in this game, that regresses for Walker.
Key trends: Yankees are 72-26 in their last 98 home games.
Early Lean: Yankees, Over
Cardinals vs Brewers 9/15/20 (+130, 8.5)
The Cardinals will send out their ace, Jack Flaherty, while the Brewers will pitch a ground ball specialist, Brett Anderson.
Flaherty is 3-1 on the season and has performed well with a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate. He’s got an ERA of 3.08 and an FIP of 3.86 while holding 81.4 percent of batters on base. Flaherty has really looked like ace material for the Cardinals.
Meanwhile, Brett Anderson is 2-3 with the Brewers along with a 4.64 ERA and a 4.79 FIP. Anderson won’t provide many strikeouts but limits walks well. Anderson also gets over 60 percent of ground balls and leaves nearly 75 percent of batters on base.
Both pitchers have done a tremendous job holding runners on base. The offense that can break through more than the other would be the Cardinals. They’re backed by the better pitcher too.
Key trends: Cardinals are 5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Early Lean: Cardinals, Under
Twins vs White Sox 9/15/20 (-115, 9.5)
The Twins and White Sox are still fighting, along with the Indians, for the AL Central. It’s a tight division and lots of fun. Both teams will send out pitchers who have exceeded expectations this season.
The Twins will pitch Randy Dobnak, who is 6-3 with a 3.61 ERA and a 4.01 FIP. He’s getting nearly 63 percent of ground balls and has limited home runs and walks this season. However, Dobnak is only striking out 4.89 batters per nine innings. You’d like that to be higher against a team that hits for power like the White Sox.
Dane Dunning, the rookie for the White Sox, will also get the call. He’s 1-0 in four career starts with a 2.70 ERA and a 2.78 FIP. He’s also getting a solid ground ball rate at nearly 54 percent and limiting the home run ball along with having a batting average of balls in play at .231.
Key trends: White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Early lean: White Sox, Under
Indians vs Cubs 9/15/20 (-145, TBD)
The Indians and Cubs both have aspirations to make it deep in the playoffs. Both teams have had some solid pitching these season, and both of these starters should be able to get the job done.
Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Cubs. He has a 7-2 record with a 1.77 ERA and a 2.23 FIP. He’s been that good. Darvish has held 88 percent of runners on base and has really limited walks and home runs this season while achieving 11.57 strikeouts per nine innings.
Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco will take the mound for the Indians. He’s 2-4, but that doesn’t tell his full story. Carrasco has a 3.12 ERA and a 3.69 FIP and has also been able to hold runners on base. The home run rate is a little high, along with the walks, but he’s getting out of trouble.
The only thing is, he’ll have little room for error.
Key trends: Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 Tuesday games.
Early lean: Cubs, Under
Diamondbacks vs Angels 9/15/20 (-125, 9.5)
If you like scoring. This might be the game for you. Madison Bumgarner will take the mound for the Diamondbacks with a 7.52 RA and a 9.03 FIP.
Bumgarner is 0-4 and isn’t getting a high amount of strikeouts like the old Bumgarner. He is allowing 3.76 home runs per nine innings, which is extremely bad.
Meanwhile. Julio Teheran is 0-3 with an 8.23 ERA and a 6.58 FIP. Teheran is also low on the strikeouts as he starts to age while also allowing a high amount of balls and home runs allowed.
Neither starter gets a high amount of ground balls, but Teheran has been every worse with runners on base. I wouldn’t even think about taking a team. The over is the play.
Key trends: Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Early lean: Angels, Over
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