Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/13/2022
This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. We may not always favor the Bucks, but using my knowledge on the Bucks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the year's end.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
On Friday night, the Bucks took down the Dallas Mavericks 106-105. Luka Doncic put up a game high 33 points, but it was not enough as the Mavericks missed their final 6 free throws down the stretch, costing them the victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 28 points before fouling out late, but the Bucks were able to hang on without their star.
From a betting perspective, we had a bittersweet night. We ended up going 1-0 with a push, after our Under 224.5 bet hit with ease. However, the push stung, as I chose the Bucks (-1) at -110 odds rather than taking the Moneyline at -115. I will never complain about a positive night and am glad we are clawing our way back into the green.
On Sunday night, the Bucks lost to the 7-18 Houston Rockets by a score of 97-92. After shooting just 37% from the floor, it was no surprise the Bucks had their 4-game win streak snapped.
Tonight, the Bucks (19-7) will look to get back in the win column, as they welcome the defending champions, the Golden State Warriors (14-13) to town. The Warriors have not had the best start to their championship defense, as they currently sit in the middle of the Western Conference play-in tournament. After starting the year 3-7, the Warriors have made some strides to turn their season around, but something is missing in Golden State. Steph Curry is winding back the clock and playing some of the best basketball of his career at the age of 34, but the supporting cast has left him wanting more. He sits 4th in the league with exactly 30 PPG and is dishing out a team high 7.0 Assists to go along with it. It is clear that Curry is not the problem for the Warriors, and bringing the team together will be critical if they are to avoid the play-in tournament and make waves in a crowded Western Conference.
One Warrior that has to step up is fellow splash brother, Klay Thompson. Thompson has not been his usual self, posting 18.9 PPG, his lowest total since 2013, on just 40.6% from the floor, which is his lowest percentage in his career. The reason the Warriors have been so effective over the better part of the last decade is because Curry was able to generate his own shots and kick the ball out to other lethal shooters from behind the arc. Without his splash brother, the game of Curry and the Warriors took a dramatic turn for the worse.
Since Thompson has not been as effective, two other Warriors have stepped up in his dry spell. Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole are both having solid seasons, with Wiggins shooting a career high 51.1% from the floor. While it is nice to see the other starters stepping up, the 4 aforementioned players are the only ones averaging more than 9 PPG. Ouch.
For the Bucks, this is a matchup where I expect them to flourish. Teams that lack the scoring depth to challenge the Bucks elite defenders play right into the Bucks hands. Jrue Holiday will be able to limit the production of Curry, while the fearsome duo of Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez will be able to shut things down inside. One man unaccounted for is Thompson. However, considering the slow run of form he has been on, and the fact that the Warriors are on the road, I don’t expect a big night from him.
While the Bucks will be happy with their second-place position in the East, one concerning aspect is how Khris Middleton has returned from his injury. Middleton has played just 5 games since returning but has posted career lows in FG% (34.6), 3 Point percentage (26.9), PPG (11.0), and Rebounds (2.4). His return is still fresh, but the Bucks will be unable to stay at the top of the East if he does not get back to his usual self. Holiday has been able to compensate, as he is having the best offensive season of his career, but Middleton’s absence is still felt in the backcourt.
The first bet for tonight is a familiar one, Bucks (-4). I started this column promising not to take the Bucks too frequently. However, when the oddsmakers are not giving them the respect they deserve, I have to stay with the 14-10 ATS Bucks. The Bucks are at home and are barely favored against a team that has struggled to put together consistent performances throughout the season. I know the Bucks are coming off an ugly loss to the Rockets, but I expect them to bounce back and put together a solid performance in front of the Milwaukee faithful. The matchups are favorable for the Bucks, and they should be able to use their size advantage down low to dominate on both ends of the court.
The second bet for tonight is once again, Under 233.5. This total is way too high for a Bucks matchup. And while I know it’s not fun betting the Unders, it is absolutely the play for tonight. On their home court, the Bucks are very effective at slowing down high paced teams, and they should have no problem putting the defensive clamps on Curry and the Warriors.
Finally, I’ll take Draymond Green Under 8.5 points. Green thrives on crashing the glass and scoring his points down low. Against the Bucks big man Brook Lopez, I expect him to not be as effective as usual on Tuesday night. Despite him eclipsing this total in 6 of his last 8 games, I feel he’s due for a slow game on the offensive end.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-4) 3 Units
Pick: Bucks vs Warriors Under 233.5 2 Units
Pick: Draymond Green Under 8.5 Points 1 Unit
2022 Season record:
ML Record: 4-2
Spread Record: 3-6
Total Record: 3-4
Player Props Record: 7-7
Down 1.1 Units ($110)
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