MLB Betting Help: Hot and Cold Moneyline, Runline and Totals June 21, 2022
With roughly 100 games left in the MLB regular season, and All-Star break a month away, I believe it is official, we are entering the dog days of summer. The AL East is the strongest division in baseball right now, with three of the five teams in the playoff picture and the fourth team, Boston Red Sox, only a couple games behind. The New York Yankees are on pace for a 119-win season, The only other years they’ve matched that success through 65 games? There were three: 1928, 1939 and 1998, all of which ended with World Series victories. The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers also continue their dominant surge into the third week of June.
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This week saw the end of a lot of streaks. Atlanta’s season-best 14-game winning streak was snapped Friday by the Cubs, who had lost 10 in a row. Pittsburgh snapped a nine-game skid Wednesday, and the Yankees saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end Sunday against Toronto. With all these long stretches of hot and cold in recent weeks, don’t forget the Angels recently lost 14 straight, and the Phillies followed their five-game slide with nine consecutive wins. With that being stated, this is a good time of year to highlight some bests and worsts.
Hot Moneyline Teams
New York Yankees: 49-17
Last 10 games 9-1
Total Money = $1376
They win at home, and they win on the road. The 2022 Yankees seem to be a team of destiny. It seems redundant talking about the Yankees, but they are a great team to throw into a parlay as the value might not be their betting them on the moneyline straight up with them being heavy favorites in most matchups. Also, the best team in baseball has the best player in baseball. A recent struggle from Mike Trout allowed Aaron Judge to sprint away from the pack as the front-runner in a loaded American League MVP field. The Dodgers have been the favorites to win the World Series this entire season. Now, the Yankees are tied with them for the best overall odds to win it all. An absolute machine that continues to roll.
Cleveland Guardians: 34-28
Last 10 games 8-2
Total Money $646
They have the fourth-highest run differential in the AL, behind the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox. Also, Jason Lloyd sees another contention window starting to open. The only reason for doubt? They are 8-13 against teams that are over .500, but that includes a series victory over the weekend against a Dodgers team that until recently dominated these power rankings. The Guardians have won five of their last six games, and they’re clear of the White Sox by 2.5 games in the AL Central standings. They’ve done it in a couple ways: the pitching has been excellent as of late, highlighted by Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber. The Guardians just took two of three on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers, which is impressive. After a stop at division rival Minnesota on the way home, Cleveland then begins an 11-game home stand against Boston, Minnesota and the Yankees. We're about to find out if Cleveland can transition its success against some of the major league’s best.
Cold Moneyline Teams
Tampa Bay Rays: 36-30
Last 10 games 2-8
Total Money -$-276
The Rays slumped their way through a 1-5 week and a 2-7 road trip, dropping three to the Yankees and two of three to the Orioles. They are in third place in the AL East, 13 games behind New York, though they do still somehow hold the final wild card slot. They host the Yankees for a three-game set starting this evening before welcoming the Pirates on Friday for three games. With series against the Brewers, Blue Jays and Red Sox on the horizon, it will be a true test for the struggling Rays, who are dealing with the injury bug and losing tight games over the past two weeks.
Oakland Athletics: 23-45
Last 10 games 3-7
Total Money $-1371
The A’s have the second-worst staff ERA in the American League and the second-fewest runs scored in the American League. Oakland A’s games are non-competitive at this point. They are 8-25 at the Coliseum, which makes them the only team in baseball with less than 10 wins at home.
Hot Runline Teams
Runline Record 42-26
Total Money $1266
They don’t hit well, and play average defense, but their outstanding bullpen has led to a lot of close games. The Orioles have also held a .500 record the past month and have taken multiple games off divisional rivals Rays and Blue Jays in that span. They continue week after week to be the best value runline team in the MLB.
Runline Record 35-33
Total Money -$162
It’s impossible to ignore what’s happened in Philadelphia since they fired manager Joe Girardi. This team is playing rejuvenated baseball against fairly decent competition. The Phillies won nine of the first 10 games under new manager Rob Thomson. That stretch included sweeps of the Angels and Brewers, and the team slugged 20 home runs, with Bryce Harper leading the way with five home runs and 14 RBIs. Harper has taken very well to the full-time DH role, with an OPS+ that has inched past his 2021 number. The Phillies have also posted a +12-run differential in their past 3 games -- when they win, they win big.
Cold Runline Teams
Runline Record 30-36
Total Money -$-677
June 20 marks the beginning of a 29-game stretch that includes 22 road games. That's the bad news. Detroit will start it with a 8-18 road record and an away-from-home run differential that anoints the Tigers as easily baseball's worst road team thus far. The Tigers cannot hit. They’re the second worst team in baseball in terms of on-base percentage and the worst in the slugging department. Javier Baez has a .519 OPS, and Spencer Torkelson is hitting .181 with a .292 slugging percentage. The only way this season could’ve gotten worse was if pitcher health took a dive, and it did tenfold with the Casey Mize news. They have also posted a -22-run differential in their past three games -- bet on them while they are cold.
Hot Over Teams
New York Mets
The New York Mets have been a part of some of the most exciting games in baseball the past three weeks; if they are not scoring a lot of runs, opponents typically are, with a +66 run differential this year and +53 at home, I would not shy away from the over, especially when the Mets are at home. A huge contribution to their offense has been Pete Alonso, who is an RBI machine, with 64 through the Mets' first 69 games, giving him a pace of 151. That would shatter the team record of 124, shared by Mike Piazza (1999) and David Wright (2008). The only others to drive in 120 were Alonso in 2019 and Robin Ventura in 1999. The last player to drive in 150 runs in a season was Alex Rodriguez for the Yankees in 2007, and the last NL player was Sammy Sosa in 2001. Not surprisingly, Alonso has been at his best with runners in scoring position: .368/.481/.877, nine home runs, 44 RBIs
They're 15-2 in June and ran off 14 straight before dropping a weekend series at Wrigley Field. Their offense is heating up as well, going over in 10 of their last 13 games. Yes, those have been against some below average teams, but keep an eye for the 2021 MLB champs to make a strong surge through July.
Hot Under Teams
Kansas City Royals
The Royals have been shut out three times in the last three weeks and have been very intolerable to watch. They have entered full rebuild mode and have not a single active batter with an OPS over .780. On the mound, they’ve been the worst staff in the American League by a wide margin with a collective 5.17 ERA.
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