Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NBA Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Spread

by Spencer Toth - 11/22/2022

NBA betting advice hot and cold against the sperad Myles Turner Indiana Pacers

We are midway through the second month of the NBA season, and the standings are starting to take shape. Over the last few weeks, some teams have emerged as ATS (Against the Spread) leaders, and others have fallen below expectations. Let’s look at the hottest and coldest teams in the NBA, in addition to the highest and lowest scoring teams.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

The Hot:

Indiana Pacers:
The Pacers have gone a remarkable 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, going 8-2 outright as well. The Pacers have risen from the league’s basement and sit 4th in the East with a 10-6 record. Tyrese Haliburton has led the team with 20.4 PPG and 10.7 Assists, but it has been the role players delivering that has turned the tides for this longtime bottom dweller. Myles Turner is protecting the paint, posting 3.0 blocks per game, and 6th man Bennedict Mathurin is second on the team with 19.3 PPG on .421 from behind the arc. As long as the Pacers keep playing well, and the oddsmakers refuse to adjust the odds, they will remain profitable.

Sacramento Kings:

The Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 and are also 8-2 straight up. After losing their star Haliburton at the trade deadline last year, the Kings looked like they would be tanking for the foreseeable future. De’Aaron Fox had other ideas, as he has been unstoppable for the Kings, with 25.4 PPG. The Kings as a whole rank 1st in PPG (121.4), and 1st in FG percentage at 50.2%. As long as the Kings continue to shoot the lights out, they will be winning and covering for the foreseeable future.

The Cold:

Dallas Mavericks:
The Mavericks have been ice cold, and not in a good way. While they have been good on the moneyline over the last 10, going 6-4, the bookies have been doing them no favors, and are a mere 1-9 ATS over the same span. MVP frontrunner Luka Doncic has been dominant, with 33.5 PPG, and the Mavericks are winning games. However, they’ve been favored by 4 or more points in each of their last 10, and have only won by more than 5 once, resulting in many backdoor covers for their opposition. The Mavericks will be happy they are winning these close games but will want more stability in the long run. Doncic’s historic play has caused the bookies to overvalue the Mavericks, so stay away until the lines drop down to reality.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
The Timberwolves made offseason noise, picking up Rudy Gobert from the Jazz. They sit 9-8 in the West, and have gone 5-5 in the last 10, being one of the more mediocre franchises this year. However, ATS they have gone 3-7, making them one of the colder teams in the league. They are coming in as favorites but not delivering convincing wins. They will be happy to be above .500 in a very competitive West, but they will be on my ‘avoid’ list until their lines become more representative of their current form.

High scorers:

Oklahoma City Thunder:

The Thunder have cashed the Over a remarkable 7 games in a row, and 8 of the last 10. Despite having some of the highest totals in the league, the Thunder continue to dominate on the offensive end, and let their opposition cook on the defensive end. They’ve eclipsed 230 a total of 8 times in the last 10 and are being led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 31.1 PPG.  Additionally, they have the 3rd highest pace of play, which is a great recipe for Overs. I’ll need their lines to climb into the 235 range before I think about touching a Thunder Under.

Los Angeles Lakers:

While the Lakers may be sitting in the basement with a 5-10 record, their overall scoring has not been the issue, going Over the posted total 7 out of the last 10. They have the 2nd highest pace of play, which is carrying their inefficient scoring. I’d expect the coaching staff to slow things down and change up the pace, since clearly the 2nd highest pace with the 18th highest PPG is not a recipe for success. While the final scores have made the Lakers mediocre offense look good, I’d expect the Over trend to continue once their offense improves.

Low scorers:

Chicago Bulls:

The Bulls have been struggling to cash their Overs, going 2-8 in the last 10. While their offense and pace are mid-tier in the league, the bookies continue to set the lines above where they should be. The lines are consistently in the high 220’s, but at least 1 team has finished under 110 points in 7 of the last 10 games for the Bulls. Keep counting on the Bulls defense to play with tenacity, and cash the Unders in the process.

Golden State Warriors:
The defending champs are playing at a league high 101.8 pace but have only gone Over their total 3 times of the last 10. They have suffered from sky high closing totals, with 6 of their last 10 being 232 or higher, causing middle of the pack scores to fall short. The public loves betting Over on Steph Curry and Golden State Warriors totals, which consistently causes the totals to become inflated. I’d expect this trend to continue throughout the season, and the Warriors will keep falling Under.

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers