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NBA Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Spread

by Spencer Toth - 11/8/2022

Hot and cold NBA teams against the spread Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors

The new NBA season is now three weeks old, and it’s time to look at the hottest and coldest teams ATS (Against the Spread). Some teams have greatly exceeded expectations, while others have fallen short.

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The Hot:

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks are 9-1 to start the year and 8-2 ATS. Despite missing star point guard Khris Middleton, the Bucks sit atop the Eastern Conference standings. Thirty-two-year-old Jrue Holiday has stepped up in his absence, posting career bests in 3-pointers (2.4), rebounds (5.7), and assists (7.9). Thanks to the leaps Holiday has taken, and the phenomenal play from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are easily one of the title favorites. Until the bookies start showing them more respect, they will continue to cover the short spreads on offer.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers made a splash in the offseason, picking up Donovan Mitchell from the Utah Jazz. Mitchell has immediately gelled with the squad, and the Cavaliers sit at 8-2 overall, and 8-2 ATS. After losing the season opener, the Cavaliers rattled off an eight-game win streak, covering every time. Thanks to 31.2 PPG from Mitchell, and 8.5 Assists from Darius Garland, the Cavaliers look primed to return to the playoffs for the first time in four years. Two wins over the Celtics have proven this team deserves to be near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, and they will continue to cover the short spreads given by the bookies this season.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Trail Blazers were expected to be in the league’s basement but are instead sitting among the West’s best with the… Utah Jazz. While the early season has had some surprises, the Trail Blazers being 7-3, and 8-2 against the spread is one of the most surprising. Damian Lillard has had his usual injury problems, yet the team is still finding ways to win. They won outright as underdogs six times this year, including five of which while being 4.5-point underdogs or larger. Instead of tanking for Wemba, the Trail Blazers consistently win in the underdog role and have been an ATS bettor’s dream. Keep hammering the Trail Blazers until the bookies start treating them as a semi-legitimate NBA team.

The Cold:

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat have had a woeful start to the year, going 4-7 overall and 2-9 ATS. The Heat were expected to challenge for an NBA title, and their spreads were set accordingly. However, things have not gone to plan in Florida, as inconsistent shooting has left them near the bottom. An even more worrisome fact is that the Heat are knocking down a league best 87.7% of their free throws and are still not covering. No starter is hitting over 38% of their 3’s, and the slow pace of play leads Miami into taking bad shots. Until the Heat can prove they can win games handily, stay away from them as a favorite at all costs.

LA Lakers

Going into the season, the question marks surrounding the Lakers have never been bigger. After starting the year 2-8 overall and 2-8 ATS, they just keep growing. Russell Westbrook is coming off the bench. And while Lebron James and Anthony Davis continue to produce, the supporting cast has not. The Lakers have the star power needed to compete, yet they haven’t been able to put it all together. Despite ranking second in pace of play, the Lakers sit 26th in PPG at 108.4. The offensive struggles epitomize the state of this Lakers franchise. And unless something changes soon, James and the Lakers will be looking at a second straight season watching the playoffs from their couch.

Golden State Warriors

The championship hangover is real. The Warriors are 4-7 to start the year and 3-8 ATS. Despite keeping virtually the same roster that won them the NBA Championship in June, they have been unable to replicate their results. Losing outright as huge favorites has not helped their case, as they have fallen to the Hornets (10.5-point favorites), the Magic (9.5), and the Pistons (7.5). The Warriors have been unable to beat the league's basement and have struggled against the league's elite. Steph Curry continues to drop solid offensive outings, but a league worst 120.6 PPG against will not allow them to win games. Luckily for them, the Warriors have time to turn things around. However, until the spread treats them like the middle of the pack team they are playing like, stay away from them in the favorite role.

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