College Football Totals Picks Week 5: Over or Under Predictions for Friday and Saturday
Since this series is still on the newer side, I'll restate the purpose of this article. Each week I'll list my best over/under (or total) plays and analyze my reason for picking them. Then, using Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System", I give the wagers to place that will hopefully maximize our investment. The standard unit will be $100.
Due to some technical difficulties, we weren't able to put out last week's total article. From 2 weeks ago, we split in our picks, winning a 5- and 4-unit play and losing a 5- and 3-unit play. While there wasn't a huge gain in bankroll, a profit is always better than a loss. So, even though it was only a 0.2-unit profit, we still went forward.
According to an article I found from an extremely reputable source, scoring through the first 5 weeks is down less than one point. The games have averaged 53.8 points per game, versus the 54.7 points per game all of last season. So, while there was some concern that the new clock rules would drastically alter scoring, that doesn't appear to be the case.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
No. 10 Utah at No. 19 Oregon State (-4.5/44.5) Friday 9:00 PM FS1
A bonus game to kick off the weekend early. The over is 4-2 in the Beavers's last 6 games and 8-4 in the last 12 games that Oregon State was a favorite. Utah has been giving up 212 yards a game through the air, which doesn't bode well against an Oregon State team that has been throwing for 234 yards a game themselves. Riding that contrarian wave again, as 85% of the wagers and 95% of the money has come in on the under. Our models show this game to be much higher than the current 44.5. The Beavers will likely score 35 themselves, and we believe Utah will be able to muster more than just 10 points. PICK: OVER 44.5 4-units
No. 6 Penn State (-26.5/46) at Northwestern Sat. Noon BTN
Even though I'm calling Penn State to fail to cover their first game of the season, it won't be because their offense isn't scoring. The Nittany Lions have the longest active streak of scoring 30 or more points in a game, currently sitting at 11 games. Northwestern just got done hanging 37 points on a very good Minnesota squad. Our models call for PSU to score 38 points themselves and we believe that the Wildcats will be able to put up at least 10 points themselves. PICK: OVER 46 points 5-units
No. 22 Florida (+1/45) at Kentucky Sat. Noon ESPN
Kentucky has some gaudy numbers on offense, averaging 38 ppg, but they've done it against the 3rd-easiest schedule in college football so far. Florida, meanwhile, is only allowing 13.5 ppg and has a strength of schedule in the upper half. The under is 4-1 in the Gators' last five games and 13-3 in Florida's last 16 games against an SEC East opponent. Kentucky has struggled to score in conference, with their total going under 9-1 in their last 10 SEC games. Florida wins this game by shutting down the Wildcats offense. PICK: UNDER 45 2-units
No. 9 Oregon at Stanford (27/61) Sat. 6:30 P.M. PAC-12 Network
I'm going slightly contrarian here, as 61% of the wagers have gone to the over 61. Oregon has the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the country, averaging 54 ppg. However, taking out the 81 points scored against FCS Portland State brings that number down slightly to 45 ppg. Fine-tuning that against Power 5 opponents reduces that average to 40 ppg. There is no denying the Ducks carry a lot of firepower, but Stanford's defense has shown signs of improvement since their 56-10 shellacking at the hands of USC. Even though last week was a cakewalk for the Ducks, we believe that a lot of emotion was invested in that victory. They'll win with ease against the Cardinal but won't have the desire to run up the score like their Colorado victory. PICK: UNDER 61 2-units
Iowa State at No. 14 Oklahoma (-20/48) Sat. 7:00 P.M. FS1
The last ten games these two squads have played against each other saw the total score average of 61.9 points per game. The Sooners are averaging 46.8 PPG this season and 501 yards of offense every game. These numbers have been accrued against decent competition, as their strength of schedule is 22nd out of 133 teams. Defensively, they have been almost impenetrable, allowing only 8.5 ppg but Iowa State is a little better on offense. I believe that the Sooners will score about five touchdowns, and Iowa State puts up three themselves for a backdoor cover but an easy over. PICK: OVER 48 3-units
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