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Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/6/2023

by Spencer Toth - 2/6/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Damian Lillard Milwaukee Bucks

This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the Bucks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Thursday night, the Bucks took down the LA Clippers 106-105. They stormed back from a 21-point deficit on the back of a monster performance from… you guessed it, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The ‘Greek Freak’ put up 54 points to go along with his 19 rebounds, to lead the Buck to their 6th straight victory. Once again, Khris Middleton came off the bench, scoring 16 points in 19 minutes of action.

From a betting perspective, we had another solid night. We went 2-2 with our bets, but both locked in a profit thanks to selective unit sizing. While the Clippers blew the 21-point lead and lost, they managed to hold on to cover the +4.5 point spread, cashing our biggest bet of the night for 3 Units. The Under 230.5 also cashed with ease, falling 20 points short, but we missed both of our player props. Giannis Antetokounmpo failed to get 4.5 assists, finishing with 2. However, who can blame him for not passing the rock out of his red-hot hands? Paul George failed to deliver in the second half, scoring 16 points in the Clippers defeat, well short of his 23.5 total.

On Saturday night, the Bucks stretched their win streak to 7 games, taking down the Heat 123-115, which is the most points the Heat allowed since December 31 of last year. Antetokounmpo posted a triple double, going 35/15/11, matching his season high assist total. Middleton scored 24 points, his highest total of the season, and everything is starting to click in Milwaukee.

Tonight, the Bucks (36-17) play the first of a 3-game road trip, as they head to Portland to take on the Trail Blazers (26-27). The Trail Blazers sit in the middle of a very crowded Western Conference and are desperately battling for every victory. Damian Lillard continues to show his loyalty to the city of Portland and play phenomenal basketball for the franchise. He’s averaging the joint 5th highest PPG in the league, at 30.9 PPG, a full 9 points higher than Portland’s second option, Anfernee Simons.

The Trail Blazers are in a tough situation. They haven’t been able to fully tank, thanks to the loyalty from Lillard, but they also haven’t won a playoff series since 2019 and haven’t made the NBA finals since 1992. Portland possesses one of the more potent offenses in the league, and they live and die by the 3-ball. They average the 8th most 3-point attempts, with the 6th highest 3-pt % in the league. Lillard is a big reason for this trend. However, young guards such as Simons, Jerami Grant, and Nassir Little are more than happy to join the 3-point party.

Against the Bucks, Portland will have their work cut out for them. Antetokounmpo is on an absolute tear, his paint presence is borderline unstoppable. Additionally, star big man Jusuf Nurkic will sit out until after the All-Star break, leaving Portland very thin in the paint. Their willingness to shoot the 3-ball will always leave them with a chance to beat the best team in the league, thanks to the variance, but they will need to be red hot if they are to keep up with the Bucks’ lethal inside game.

The difference in this game will be in the paint, and I just don’t see a path to victory for Portland. The Bucks average a league high 49 rebounds per game, while Portland averages just 42 rebounds, good for 24th in the league. A glass mismatch like this will always tilt the floor in favor of the bigger team, giving the Bucks more shots, and more opportunities to put points on the board. Last game, Portland was without Nurkic, and they lost the rebounding battle 41-33 to the Bulls, who are just 20th in the league in that category.

The spread in this contest is set to just 4 points in favor of the Bucks, and I will be taking full advantage of the road favorites. The Bucks are playing phenomenal basketball, and this spread should be much higher. The rebound differential, the momentum, and places both these dressing rooms are in, fills me with confidence that the Bucks can get the job done. A road favorite is always a bit scary, but the Bucks are 13-12 on the road and can beat down on weak teams such as Portland. Give me Bucks (-4) for 4 Units.

The second bet of the night is Damian Lillard Under 34.5 points. Jrue Holiday is one of the best on ball defenders in the league and will be able to limit the efficiency of Lillard. Head coach Mike Budenholzer will know that if they shut down the longtime Portland star, they will put themselves in a great position to win. While it’s always concerning to step in front of Lillard, especially when he’s cashed this Over in 5 of his last 7 games, Holiday has the defensive chops to shut him down.

Finally, it would be criminal not to take a rebound prop considering the mismatch, so I’ll take Brook Lopez Over 6.5 Rebounds with juicy +120 odds. Lopez has strayed from his presence behind the line and has grabbed more boards in the absence of Bobby Portis. He should be able to overpower Josh Hart and whatever other weak big man Portland throws out there. And with all the attention on Antetokounmpo, he’ll be able to sneak in and put his size to use.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-4) 4 Units

Pick: Damian Lillard Under 34.5 points 1 Unit

Pick: Brook Lopez Over 6.5 Rebounds +120 1 Unit

2022-23 Season record:

ML Record: 8-9

Spread Record: 9-9

Total Record: 6-8

Player Props Record: 20-15

Total: 43-43

Up 7.8 Units ($780)

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