Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/16/2023

by Spencer Toth - 4/16/2023

Milwaukee Bucks daily betting predictions Giannis Antetokounmpo

The postseason is upon us, and the Bucks will be looking to get off to a hot start against the Miami Heat. The Bucks wrapped up the regular season with a 58-24 record, which secured them home-court advantage throughout the postseason. Their +250 odds to lift the championship trophy are the shortest in the league, with Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge. His 31.1 PPG is unlikely to win him a third MVP title, but his dominance on both ends of the court has never been more apparent.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Throughout the regular season, I gave out my best bets for every Milwaukee Bucks game and was able to come out on top. I finished the regular season with a sparkling 68-58 record, which was good for Up 24.7 Units (Up $2470 on $100 bets). Using my knowledge of the team, and the league as a whole, I was able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

There is no doubt who the favorite is heading into this series. The Bucks have sat atop the Eastern Conference standings since the end of February, and their starters haven’t suited up in 12 days. The Bucks have only lost back-to-back games on 5 occasions this season, and their consistency has earned the top spot in the league.

For Miami, they’ve had a much rockier path to the postseason. Miami looked destined for the 7th seed for the last few months. However, after getting blown out by the Hawks in the first play-in game, Miami faced a winner take all showdown against Chicago on Friday. They trailed the Bulls heading into the 4th quarter, but ultimately prevailed thanks to solid defense, and 31 points from Jimmy Butler and Max Strus, respectively. A 44-38 record is nothing to get excited about, but the Heat believe they have the playoff experience, and the defensive abilities, to upset the Bucks.

Despite this, I expect the Bucks to put their rest advantage to good use, and emerge victorious in Game 1. The Bucks are several tiers above the Heat in talent. And when they are healthy and motivated, no one will stand in their path. When Antetokounmpo puts his head down and drives to the hoop, there is only one way to stop him, and that’s to send him to the free throw line. The ‘Greek Freak’ is incomparable to anyone on the Heat squad. And while it may not be the prettiest style of basketball, I expect the Bucks to fill up the paint early and often.

Bam Adebayo will do his best in the paint, but the Heat routinely run a lineup with 4 smalls, which will simply not work against the Bucks. Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis ensure the Bucks have a significant size advantage whenever they step on the court. The trio is a major factor as to why the Bucks lead the league in rebounds and refuse to be beaten down low.

The growth of Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday this season has been phenomenal. Both players were known for their defensive workrates, but the leaps they have taken on the offensive end has turned them into fantastic 2-way players. Lopez was a major offensive force on the Nets. However, once he joined the Bucks in 2018, his offensive output was dramatically reduced. He was playing a more defensive role, but the injury to Khris Middleton gave him more chances offensively. He made no mistake, scoring 15.9 PPG with a 53.1% field goal percentage, both of which are career highs in a Bucks uniform. The DPOY front runner has quickly turned into a critical member of the squad.

Holiday has seen a similar resurgence on the offensive end, and became the primary ball handler for the Bucks. Of course, Antetokounmpo was still the star of the show, but all of a sudden Holiday was given numerous chances to put his offense to use and made no mistakes. The absence of their All-Star in Middleton turned out to be a blessing in disguise, as the Bucks role players all saw an uptick in minutes. They are suddenly set up with one of the deepest, and most talented, rosters in the league.

We can’t count Miami out yet. Jimmy Butler has been repeatedly underestimated in the playoffs, and he turns up when it matters most. The Heat made a shock Finals run in 2020, and nearly followed it up with another last season, losing to the Celtics in a hard fought 7-game series. The core of Adebayo, Butler, and Tyler Herro has been in Miami for several seasons and has been through many ups and downs together. The Heat franchise trusts their veterans, and they’ll be looking to make another shock playoff run.

The advantages the Bucks have on the court is simply too great for the Heat to reasonably compete. The Bucks have the 4th ranked defense and 12th ranked offense, both well ahead of Miami’s 8th ranked defense and 25th ranked offense. On the glass, the Bucks are leading the league in rebounds, while the Heat are 27th. From behind the arc the Bucks shoot the 4th most 3’s with the 10th best shooting percentage, while Miami’s 27th ranked 3-pt percentage has been a major factor to their dead last 109.5 PPG. Almost every statistical advantage points in the Bucks favor, and a healthy, motivated Bucks unit will not be touched.

Before getting into Game 1 bets, I have a few futures for this series. I’m loving the value of the Bucks to walk away with a sweep at +275 odds. Of course, the Heat could steal a game, but the Bucks will not take their foot off the gas and will want to wrap this series up and get back to resting ahead of what should be a long playoff run. A slightly more conservative bet will be on the Bucks (-2.5) Games, which will cash if the Bucks win in 4 or 5 games. The -175 odds are certainly less juicy, but still leave plenty of room to turn a profit if the Bucks split the road games.

The first bet for tonight will be on the Bucks team total of 113.5. The Bucks should have no problem taking advantage of the Heat’s tired legs and filling up the hoop at home. Their high pace of play should counteract the Heat’s lethargic pace, and the home crowd will ensure this total cashes.

The second bet for the night is a unique one. In the playoffs, there is a fantastic betting strategy I’ve put to use when there is a rest mismatch. The Bucks haven’t played a meaningful game in weeks, while the Heat are fresh off two very intense play-in games. At +425 odds, I’m loving the ‘Double result’ prop for the Heat to win the first half, but the Bucks to win the game. The Bucks may come out slightly rusty and dig themselves a small hole early. However, when the Heat’s tired legs catch up to them, the Bucks will be able to turn the tide, and walk away with a comfortable victory. At +425 odds, it is certainly worth a shot.

Game 1 Bets:
Milwaukee Bucks Over 113.5 Points -110 2 Units

Double Result: Miami Heat- Milwaukee Bucks +425 1 Unit

Series Bets:

Milwaukee Wins 4-0 +275 1 Unit

Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) Games -175 5 Units

2022-23 Season Record:

ML Record: 13-9

Spread Record: 18-13

Total Record: 7-12

Player Props Record: 30-22

Total: 68-58

Up 24.7 Units ($2470)

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers