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Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/16/2023

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks predictions Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Milwaukee Bucks are looking to keep up the momentum and turn their regular season dominance into playoff success. Their elite defense has brought them where they are, but the Miami Heat will feel confident they have the defense to challenge Milwaukee. After losing their first play-in game, the Heat made amends by taking care of business at home, punching their ticket to the postseason.

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This season, I’ve broken down every Milwaukee Bucks game, giving my best bets and predictions. Whether it was a spread pick, player prop, or a moneyline, my knowledge of the Bucks franchise, and the NBA as a whole, allowed for a very profitable season. I finished the regular season 68-58, Up 24.7 Units on a very high sample size. A $100 bettor would have won $2470 tailing my picks, and I couldn’t be more excited to translate that success into the postseason.

Milwaukee Bucks:

The Milwaukee Bucks possess the most well-rounded roster from top to bottom. They have 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge, and the 28-year-old posted a career high 31.1 PPG in the regular season. The talent in Milwaukee doesn’t end there, as a healthy Khris Middleton is more than capable of being a reliable second option. The unique thing about the Bucks is, due to Middleton’s early season injury, the defensive specialists got more shots. Players such as DPOY front runner Brook Lopez and talented defender Jrue Holiday have had mediocre offensive games to go along with their elite defense, and the absence of a true #2 option in Milwaukee has turned them into offensive threats.

The depth doesn’t end there, as Bobby Portis, Jevon Carter and Jae Crowder are all fantastic options off the bench. The Bucks have the 4th ranked defense, and the 12th ranked offense. However, considering they took their foot off the gas in the latter portion of the season, they may be even better.

Before we go any deeper into the team, we need to look at Giannis Antetokounmpo. While it looks unlikely Antetokounmpo will capture his third MVP award, the ‘Greek Freak’ has never been more critical for Milwaukee’s success. His 31.1 PPG is not easily replaced. And once he gets going downhill, the only way to stop him from an easy bucket is to foul. Antetokounmpo does struggle at the line, shooting just 64.5% from the line, but his consistency at getting there still allows him to score 7.9 PPG from the charity stripe. Not only is he an offensive juggernaut, but his presence at the defensive end of the court, along with Lopez, forces opponents to take shots outside the paint, with a much less frequent success rate.

Selecting the next best Bucks player is a difficult decision, since Middleton has yet to find his pre-injury form. While Brook Lopez has a case for being the second best, especially considering his defensive prowess, I have to side with Holiday here. There are few on ball defenders that can routinely shut down the opposition's stars like Holiday can. His quick feet, and upright stature, prevents easy shots, and often forces a pass from their stars. Now that his offensive game has picked up, Holiday has quickly become a critical piece of the Milwaukee roster.

The talent up and down this roster is unmatched, and the Bucks deserve to be the +250 title favorites that they are. They lead the league in rebounds, with Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Portis all patrolling the paint. The Bucks are ranked 4th in 3 pointers and sport the 4th best defense. While they get to the line frequently, the whistles are swallowed much more frequently in the playoffs, and the Bucks will need to avoid getting frustrated if calls don’t go their way. Otherwise, there isn’t much that can stop Antetokounmpo and the Bucks from a clear path to the NBA finals.

Miami Heat:

The Miami Heat were one shot away from two Finals appearances in three seasons but haven’t been able to replicate the same level of consistency this season. There is no doubt the Heat have the experience to navigate tricky situations, and they will be confident about their chances of an upset.

If the Heat are going to succeed, it will be thanks to their defensive tenacity leading the charge. They rank dead last in the league with 109.5 PPG. And against stiff postseason opposition, that figure is unlikely to swell. One man who is not afraid of the spotlight in Miami is Jimmy Butler. Butler has been dominant in the postseason, single handedly carrying the Heat into the Finals in 2020. While he missed a critical shot in Game 7 last season, Butler is the best offensive threat on Miami’s roster. The art of the midrange is not lost on Butler, and if he’s given an open shot anywhere inside the 3-point line, it usually ends up in a basket.

Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are both averaging 20+ PPG, making the Heat one of three teams in the league with 3 20-point scorers. Herro is coming off a 6th man of the year season last year. And while his shooting numbers have declined, he’s posting career highs in both Rebounds (5.4) and Assists (4.2). His presence in the starting lineup adds another electric shooter on the court and keeps defenses stretched. Adebayo inked a max rookie contract extension in 2020 and is a valuable piece on the floor. While he’s being overpaid, that doesn’t take away from the work Adebayo does down low. His 75 starts were the most for an often shorthanded Miami unit, and his consistency in the paint is critical for their success.

The Heat are facing an uphill battle and will rely on their transition game to score. They don’t turn the ball over often and are 6th in the league with 8 steals per game. They’ll need to take care of the ball and make use of the extra possessions if they are to have a chance at a deep postseason run.

Bucks vs Heat Prediction:

The Bucks and Heat face off for the 3rd time in 4 years, with both franchises looking to take a 2-1 lead. The Heat took down the Bucks en route to their 2020 Finals appearance, while the Bucks swept the Heat the following year, en route to their NBA championship. Good things happen to the victor of this matchup, and the Bucks will be coming in as overwhelming favorites.

There is really no reason to doubt this team. The Bucks have been atop the league wide standings for months, have an MVP caliber player, and a plethora of quality depth players up and down their roster. Their elite defense prevents opponents from building sustainable leads, and the paint presence of Lopez and Antetokounmpo forces opposition to hit outside shots.

The Heat aren’t the worst team in the league, but the Bucks will walk right through them. While the Heat were fighting for their postseason lives in the play-in tournament, the Bucks were getting valuable rest, having not played for a full week since the season finale.

The statistical advantages will be too much for the Heat to overcome, as the Bucks lead the league in rebounds, while the Heat are coming into the series ranked 27th. Milwaukee loves to get going from behind the arc, while Miami runs a methodical, slow-paced offense that often results in a 2-point attempt. There is no talent gap wider than these two teams in the postseason.

The Bucks are going to win the first two home games by double digits, before heading into Miami and completing the sweep, ensuring they keep their rest advantage intact.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks in 4 Games.

Best Bets:

I’ll be putting my immaculate regular season record on the line, and will be looking to add to the 24.7 Units of profit from the regular season. The Bucks are coming in as -1200 favorites to advance, with the Heat bouncing back at +750. Neither of these numbers are playable for me, and I will look to more specific markets instead.

The first bet has to be on a Milwaukee sweep at +275 odds. The Bucks will have no problem dispatching the Heat and will use their rest and skill advantages to end this series as quickly as possible. While nailing the sweep is never easy, these odds are better than I expected them to be before I took a look. The Bucks have the potential to sweep the Heat, as they did in the first round just 2 seasons ago. It’s rare to find this kind of plus money on the Bucks. And considering they’ll be -1000 Moneyline favorites for the first two home games, there should really only be a sweat in Games 3 and 4. At +275 odds, I’ll bite.

In a similar vein, I’ll grab the Bucks (-2.5) games at -175 odds. The chances this series gets pushed to 6+ games is incredibly low, and is a safer bet in case the Heat steal a game. As long as the Bucks split the two road games in Miami, this bet will cash.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks 4-0 +275 1 Unit

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) Games -175 5 Units

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