Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NBA Playoff Odds for Teams to Make or Miss Postseason

by Spencer Toth - 3/31/2023

NBA playoff odds to make or miss postseason Trae Young Atlanta Hawks

The NBA playoffs are just 2 weeks away, and the postseason betting market can be one of the most entertaining, and short-lived future bets to make. Teams are scrapping for the chance to compete in the postseason, and the addition of the play-in tournament has made this market wide open. Both conferences are extremely tight in the middle pack, and it's all to play for in the final weeks.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Eastern Conference:

Atlanta Hawks: -110 to Make the Playoffs, -120 to Miss the Playoffs

The Hawks have remarkably been in exactly 8th place since January 18. Since that date, they’ve gone 16-16 and have failed to string 3 or more wins or 3 or more losses together since January. There has never been a more mediocre team than the Hawks. However, will it be good enough to qualify for the postseason? If they finish in 8th, they will need to win just 1 of 2 play-in games, but that is all but secured. The 9th place Toronto Raptors have an identical 38-38 record. And with just 6 games to go, the Hawks could still slip down to 9th. The Hawks have no easy games left as even contests against the Mavericks, Bulls, and Wizards will be hard fought, playoff like intensities. It feels as though the Hawks are destined to finish 41-41, and I’ll actually lean towards the Hawks making the playoffs as they should be able to win at least 1 of the 2 play-in games 8th place will earn them.

Pick: Make -110

Toronto Raptors: +100 to Make, -130 to Miss

The Raptors have not been in the Top 8 in the East since December but have been playing solid basketball over the last month. They’ve gone 6-2 since the first week of March, and the addition of Jakob Peoltl has given them the center they’ve been missing for years. They are level with the 8th place Hawks and hold a slender 2 game lead over the 10th place Bulls. While the Hawks schedule is not easy, the Raptors is even more challenging. They have 2 games against the Celtics, and matchups against the 76ers and Bucks. Their only 2 ‘easy’ games are 2 straight in Charlotte, but beating a team on their home court in back-to-back games is still never easy. The Raptors look destined to finish in 9th, but even then, they have a solid chance at a postseason berth. A visit from Chicago then a trip to what will likely be Atlanta is certainly an achievable task, but with these odds I’ll have to side with the Miss.

Pick: Miss -130

Western Conference:

Minnesota Timberwolves: -550 to Make, +425 to Miss

The Timberwolves are overwhelming favorites to make the playoffs, despite their precarious place in the standings. They are sitting in 8th place, but just 1 game separates 7th and 10th. It is understandable why the Timberwolves have the odds they do, as they have 3 of their last 5 games against sub .500 oppositions. The team is getting healthy at the right time, as they finally can get Karl-Anthony Towns back into the mix. However, with 2 of their last 5 games against the Lakers and Pelicans, both of whom are in the playoff race alongside the Timberwolves, their spot is all but secured. Will the Timberwolves make the playoffs? Probably. But with +425 odds available for them to slip up, even a worst-case scenario 7th place finish will give us solid hedging opportunities in the play-in tournament.

Pick: Miss +425

LA Lakers: -200 to Make, +165 to Miss

The Lakers have once again fallen short of expectations but have managed to give themselves a solid chance at salvaging their season. They sat in 13th place with a 26-32 record just 6 weeks ago, but a 12-6 run has brought them back to .500, and given them a chance at a good seed in the play-in tournament. A healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis give the Lakers a chance to compete with anyone, but they still have lots of work to do down the stretch. If they can beat the Timberwolves on March 31, the Lakers will have a fantastic chance to qualify, as they still have a game against the Rockets and 2 against the Jazz on their schedule. A 42-40 record will likely be good enough for a top 8 seed, and the Lakers will not go on to lose both of their play-in opportunities. While we’re not getting a good price compared to what it has been over the last 6 weeks, the Lakers will get the job done.

Pick: Make -200

New Orleans Pelicans: -190 to Make, +160 to Miss

The New Orleans Pelicans have had a very eventful season. On December 12, they sat first place in the West, with a sparkling 18-8 record. Injuries to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram threw their season off the rails, and they went 15-29 over the next 2 months, dropping down to 12th. A recent resurgence has seen them win 6 of their last 7 games, and they have put themselves in a good position to qualify. They sit in 7th place and picked up a valuable road win against Denver on March 30. Their remaining schedule is far from easy, as the Clippers, Kings, Grizzlies, Knicks, and Timberwolves offer no easy wins, but this Pelicans team has been hot. And were it not for a 20-point blown lead against Golden State, they’d be sitting in 6th place. The Pelicans will probably make the playoffs, but I can’t get behind this betting line. They have the hardest schedule of their fellow Western Conference hopefuls, and +160 is a solid price for them to falter.

Pick: Miss +160

Dallas Mavericks: +250 to Make, -320 to Miss

The Mavericks made waves at the trade deadline, picking up Kyrie Irving from the Brooklyn Nets, finally giving Luka Doncic a co-star. Things have not gone to plan in Dallas, as Irving has a 7-10 record when on the court, and Irving and Doncic have a 4-9 record when playing together. A 7-14 run since the trade deadline has left the Mavericks playoff hopes dangling by a thread, and Doncic recently spoke out saying basketball ‘wasn’t fun’ for him anymore. The Mavs have a relatively easy remaining 5 games, with both the Spurs and Bulls on tap. They should be able to close the 1 game gap on 10th place, but they will still need to win both play-in games to qualify. I like their -150 odds to qualify for the play-in, but there is just too much wrong in Dallas for them to conceivably win 6 of their last 7, including the play-in, to qualify. It’s a heavily juiced line, but the Miss is still the play.

Pick: Miss -320

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers