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New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/13/2023

New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers series predictions Julius Randle

The New York Knicks have won just 1 playoff series since 2000, and they’re coming into the playoffs with a serious chance to make some noise. Julius Randle has put together a career year, but a stout Cleveland Cavaliers defense will make him earn every point. The Cavs surrender a league low 106.9 PPG, and their new superstar Donovan Mitchell has made an instant impact in Cleveland. A young core with a team-first mentality will feel just as confident they can go on and upset the Eastern Conference giants. Every great playoff run starts with one win, and the Cavaliers and Knicks will be equally desperate to get off on the right foot in the postseason.

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New York Knicks:

The Knicks acquired Jalen Brunson from the Dallas Mavericks in the offseason, with the hopes of giving Julius Randle a co-star in New York. His 24.0 PPG, 41.6% shooting from behind the arc, and 6.2 Assists per game, are all career highs, and Brunson is thoroughly enjoying his time in the Big Apple. His agility both on and off ball makes him the perfect teammate for Randle and RJ Barrett, both of whom thrive with smaller playmakers surrounding them. While Brunson and Randle have rightfully hogged the spotlight in New York, Barrett has excelled in the supporting cast role.

Barrett is a solid player, and his size and shooting makes him a difficult guard, but he’s simply not good enough to be a top 2 option for a quality NBA franchise. The depth he brings alongside Immanuel Quickley allows the Knicks to move the ball and take some of the pressure off Randle. The addition of Brunson, who’s a quality player himself, has elevated his new teammates to new levels, and the Knicks have shown no signs of slowing down for years to come.

The Knicks have looked destined to square off against Cleveland for months, as the two teams have been locked into the 4 and 5 seeds for over a month. The Knicks 47-win campaign is the best since 2013, and they will be hoping they can translate their newfound regular season consistency into playoff success.

Cleveland Cavaliers:

The Cavaliers are heading into the playoffs with a 51-win season in the rearview mirror, the most victories since LeBron James left Cleveland. The core of Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen were good, but the Cavs felt they could be better and added Donovan Mitchell courtesy of the Utah Jazz offseason fire sale. Mitchell has been given the reins of the franchise and has made few mistakes, averaging 28.3 PPG in his first season with the Cavaliers. The backcourt of Mitchell and Garland may lack size, but the ball handling and shot creation abilities from both men make them a tough guard for anyone in the league. On the inside, Mobley and Allen do a fantastic job of protecting the paint and are the foundation of their league low 106.9 PPG against.

While Mitchell is the undeniable leader of the new Cavaliers era, his backcourt partner in Garland is just as important to the Cavs success. His 41% 3PT percentage forces teams to avoid sending both guards to double on Mitchell, as Garland will knock down his open looks. Taking some of the weight off a star point guard's shoulders is critical, and the ball handling from Garland allows Mitchell to take the occasional offensive possession off. There are few teams built like the Cavaliers, but their lack of depth on the bench will cost them in the postseason.

Their leading scorer off the bench is Cedi Osman, who averaged 8.7 PPG during the regular season. When their starting lineup is forced to the bench, the Cavaliers do not have the talent to compete with their opposition's bench players. The addition of Danny Green will certainly help, but the Cavs will need to build up consistent leads with their starters to avoid falling behind when they inevitably take a seat.

Cavaliers vs Knicks Predictions

‘Offense wins games, Defense wins championships.’ A quote that is often thrown around this time of year perfectly sums up this series. The Knicks have managed to ride a 2nd ranked offense into the postseason. However, with only quality opposition on the agenda, their 19th ranked defense leaves them exposed. The Knicks are successful by out rebounding, and outscoring their opposition, rather than limiting the quality of their shots. Despite their 26th ranked pace of play, they give up the 2nd most points among Eastern Conference playoff teams, and the Cavs will not be returning any favors on the defensive end.

The injury concern surrounding Randle must also be taken into account. And if the Knicks leading scorer is unable to suit up for any portion of this series, the Knicks will be at a serious disadvantage. After playing the first 77 games of the season, Randle was diagnosed with an ankle sprain on March 29. His status for Game 1 of the series remains in the air. However, considering how frequently this injury can be re-aggravated, the Knicks cannot afford to take any chances on their star.

Across the court, Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has done a fantastic job molding their young core into what he needs, and the Cavaliers are already seeing the dividends of a defense first mindset. Allen and Mobley will not be giving easy possessions to New York. And while the Knicks’ offensive rebounding ability remains a concern, I expect the Cavaliers defense to mitigate this hole.

On the offensive end for Cleveland, they are still no joke. An 8th ranked offense, to go along with the 1st ranked defense, is a great recipe for success, and the Knicks will find themselves trailing for long stretches of this series. Mitchell and Garland have the speed to punish Randle or Barrett on switches, which will result in easy buckets. The youth in the starting lineup for Cleveland remains a concern. However, the Knicks are lacking any real postseason experience, too. The fact that they have been out of the postseason for so many years has prevented their core from gathering playoff experience. And apart from Brunson, the roster remains relatively unchanged. The Cavs aging yet ineffective bench has the experience to hold down the fort in the postseason, and the veterans will get the job done for Cleveland. The bench doesn’t have to win games for the Cavs. However, as long as they can match the Knicks bench, the starters will prevail. It won’t be pretty, but I expect the Cavaliers to shut down the Knicks in a pivotal game 6 at Madison Square Garden, sealing the series on the road, in 6 games.

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers in 6

Best Bets:

The Cavs are -210 to emerge victorious, and the Knicks are coming back at +180. While eating juice on a future is never fun, the Cavs at -210 are great value to win the series. They have the talent, stars, youth, and defense to overpower New York, and I would be very surprised to see the Knicks take the lead during any part of the series. In the total games market, the Over 5.5 games is juiced to -175, while the Under comes back at +135. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see Cleveland take care of business at home, split games 3 and 4 in New York, and win game 5 back in Cleveland, I have no choice but to side with the Over. A price of -175 is reasonable for two teams that are relatively evenly matched for a first round series, and I expect the Cavs to win in 7 games more often than they close the deal in 5.

Pick: Cavaliers to win Series -210

Pick: Cavs vs Knicks Over 5.5 Games -175

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