College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for Coastal Carolina (Chanticleers vs. Georgia State)
Date: Thursday, September 21
Game Time: 7:30 pm EST
Venue: Brooks Stadium
Spread: Coastal Carolina -6.5
As we head into Week 4 of the College Football season, I will use my thorough knowledge of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers to bring you insightful, but more importantly, profitable, information on CCU’s current contest. We will dive into the analysis and to maximize our return on investment, we will be utilizing Doc’s trusted “Unit Betting System.”
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We finally had a game where we were not sweating the result if you took the spread as I instructed last week. Vegas did not release the spread and total until around noon last Saturday. The opening spread came out at -32 and bounced back and forth from -32 to -33 until kickoff. Fortunately for Chanticleer bettors, the game was never close and Coastal was already covering the spread at halftime.
The Chants moved to 2-1 on the season after demolishing the Duquesne Dukes 66-7 on Saturday night. Grayson McCall led a balanced attack on offense, as Coastal Carolina registered 274 yards through the air and ran for 241 more yards. The Chanticleers backfield averaged 6.9 yards a carry against the Dukes. McCall was only needed for the first half, as Coastal built a 45-0 lead at the break. He completed 12-of-16 passes for 169 yards and two touchdown passes. Balance and spreading the ball around was the name of the game, as four players scored rushing touchdowns and three different players tallied a receiving touchdown in the victory.
Coastal Carolina will open Sun Belt action with a short turnaround this week, as the game will be played on Thursday night. The Chanticleers will go as far as McCall will take them. He has thrown for 708 yards this season, while completing 69% of his passes, with four touchdowns and two interceptions. His go-to target, Sam Pinckney, has hauled in 15 receptions for a team-best 244 yards and two touchdowns. The backfield has been spread out as Jared Brown leads the team with 95 rushing yards through three games. Braydon Bennett is not far behind with 90 rushing yards and has found paydirt twice. CCU has compiled a 3-0-0 record ATS so far in 2023 and the under has cashed in two out of their three games.
Georgia State is led by dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger, who has thrown for 803 yards and completed 73.4% of his passes. He has also thrown six touchdown passes to zero interceptions. He’s also carried the ball 34 times for 216 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Marcus Carroll has churned out a team-best 358 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Robert Lewis leads the receiving core with 17 catches for 347 yards while hauling in four touchdowns this season. Georgia State will enter this Thursday contest with a 3-0 record, 2-1 against the spread, and the over has cashed twice through three weeks.
I think we have a track meet on our hands Thursday evening. Coastal Carolina should be able to take advantage of Georgia State’s porous pass defense and cook through the air. Their secondary ranks 121st this season despite playing lackluster offenses such as Rhode Island, UConn, and Charlotte. Coastal Carolina’s rush defense is ranked 119th in success rate and Georgia State, who is a run-first squad, should be able to rip off chunk plays on the ground. I am counting on big plays from both sides and will be betting the over on Thursday night. As for the spread, I think the home crowd helps the Chants cover and move to 4-0 ATS in the 2023 season.
Prediction: CCU 41 – Georgia State 31
1-unit play on Coastal Carolina -6.5
1-unit play on over 62.5
Season Total: Up +300
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