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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 4/12/2024

by Spencer Toth - 4/12/2024

NBA hot and cold betting teams ATS and Over Under Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

The regular season is quickly winding down, and some teams will be bringing momentum into the postseason, while others have limped over the line. Over the last few weeks, certain teams have been consistently covering spreads and filling up the hoop and will be confident they can translate that success into the postseason. Here are the hottest and coldest playoff teams ATS, with the highest and lowest scorers.

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The Hot:

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers got Joel Embiid back from injury, and unsurprisingly, have seen the wins start piling up once again. The 76ers have won 6 straight games, while going 9-1 ATS across their last 10. Embiid’s return could not have come at a better time, as the 76ers still find themselves in the middle of the play-in tournament. Wins over the Spurs, Pistons, Raptors, and Grizzlies don’t exactly fill the 76er faithful with confidence, but as long as Embiid stays healthy, the 76ers will always have a chance to pull off a big upset. The oddsmakers will eventually start adjusting these lines to better reflect the current Philadelphia team, not what has been limping onto the court over the last few months. However, until they do so, Philly will keep winning, and covering along the way.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are making their second straight appearance in the ‘Hot’ column, as they are determined to secure a solid seed for this year’s playoffs. Dallas is 9-1 across their last 10 games straight up, securing the cover in all 9 of their recent victories. There were always doubts when problematic superstar Kyrie Irving joined Luka Doncic in Dallas, but the duo have dispelled any doubts, and have carried Dallas to another 50+ win season. Dallas has held their opponents to 107 or fewer points in 9 of their last 10 games. And as long as the Dallas defense keeps stepping up, they will always have a chance to win on a nightly basis. Doncic will unleash his full potential in the postseason, and Dallas has a great opportunity to upset some of the Western Conference heavyweights.

The Cold:

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are in a tight battle to avoid the dreaded play-in tournament, and they hold a slim lead over the Suns for the final spot. Across the last 10 games, New Orleans has gone 5-5 straight up, but an abysmal 3-7 ATS. They were double digit favorites 3 times in that span and failed to cover the spread on all 3 occasions. It’s not that the Pelicans are bad, it’s that their playstyle tends to result in plenty of close games. When there are big spreads in their favor, regardless of the opposition the Pelicans struggle to pull away on the scoreboard. They score most of their points from the interior. And with the 3-ball raining down for their opponents, they are consistently winning, but by fine margins. The Pelicans won’t have to worry about being big favorites in the postseason and will be out of this column once the playoffs kick off.

Orlando Magic

The Magic have been the best team in the entire league at covering spreads this season, going 50-30 ATS thus far. However, in the last 10 games they have gone just 3-7 ATS and have just 4 wins to show for it. Orlando has been one of the surprise teams this season and are on track for their first top 5 seed since 2011. Paolo Banchero is leading the way with 22.5 PPG, but it has been the Magic defense that has allowed them to win and cover so many times this season. They have the best defensive rating in the conference. And after a few seasons in the basement, oddsmakers were reluctant to give them the credit they deserved. After a season of being cooked by the Magic, they have finally been getting adequate spreads, and must no longer be blindly tailed at this stage.

High Scorers:

New York Knicks

The Knicks are a surprising inclusion in the ‘High Scorers’ column, as it has been their solid defense that has allowed them to hold onto a top three seed in the East. However, they’ve gone over the total in 9 of their last 10 games, largely due to the very low totals they’ve been hit with. The highest closing total was 221.5 points against the Celtics, and it has only been 215+ in 3 of their last 10 games. New York is finally getting healthy, and their offense has been improving as a result. Jalen Brunson continues to do much of the heavy lifting. And as long as New York keeps getting sub-220 totals, the Overs will keep cashing.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat have been able to turn into title challengers in the final weeks of the season, as ‘Playoff Jimmy’ Butler gets dialed in. The Heat are perfectly fine with a 6th-8th seed, and their offense has come alive down the stretch. In a similar vein to the Knicks, the Heat are a slow paced, defensive team getting hit with very low totals. They’ve gone over in 8 of their last 10 games, and only saw one of those totals close at 220+ points. Miami will inevitably clamp down on defense as the postseason inches closer, making the Over a dangerous choice regardless of the Heat’s opponent.

Low Scorers:

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are known for their high-flying offense, but they have cashed the Over just three times in their last 10 games. The offense has evaporated after Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter went down with injuries, and the totals have stayed consistent. The Kings have gone Under in 7 of their last 10 games, and with more high totals on the horizon, that trend is likely to continue. Sacramento has slipped into the play-in tournament after recent injuries. And without a high flying offense to offset their mediocre defense, the Kings are suddenly a lower half team in the West. The Unders will keep rolling in for the regular season, but I expect the totals to reset in the postseason, and for Sacramento to go toe-to-toe with the top dogs in the West.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have clawed their way into the play-in tournament and have a solid chance at a top 8 seed in the West. Their defense has been immaculate, keeping the total Under in 4 of their last 6 games. Despite being the shortest team in the league, the Warriors gather the most rebounds, and refuse to take a single second off on the defensive end. A lack of second chance points for their opponents ensures lengthy, empty possessions, and it’s not surprising to see the Under cash for Golden State. When casual bettors think of the Warriors, the Over is the first thing that comes to mind. While the Splash Brothers can still heat up in an instant, the totals are often inflated, making the Under a solid selection.

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