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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

by Spencer Toth - 5/7/2024

NBA series predictions Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics Jaylen Brown

The Boston Celtics have been the NBA title favorites all season long, thanks to their strong defense, balanced scoring, and deep bench. Their path to the NBA Finals is clear, and the next obstacle is the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers leaned on solid defense to outlast the Orlando Magic in the first round and will need to be on their A-game if they stand any chance at upsetting the Celtics in this series.

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Boston Celtics:
The Celtics took down the Miami Heat in 5 games and have had almost a week to rest before taking on Cleveland. When healthy, there hasn’t been a more complete starting lineup in years than the Boston Celtics. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been the offensive linchpins for the Celtics over the last decade. And now that they are in their primes, they have gotten even better. Inside, Kristaps Porzingis has been a welcome addition, as his impact on both ends of the court is crucial. Porzingis is dealing with a nagging injury and will not be suiting up for the start of the series. However, Al Horford is a worthy replacement, and isn’t too big a downgrade compared to Porzingis. Rounding out the starting lineup is Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. While the Celtics may not be the biggest team, their tenacity on both ends earned them the best record in the regular season. White has exploded this season, scoring a career high 15.2 PPG with a 39.6% clip from behind the arc. Holiday may not be turning heads offensively, but he is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and is crucial to the Celtics lineup.

Tatum and Brown had a relatively quiet opening round, scoring just 21.8 and 22.8 PPG, respectively. White was able to pick up the slack offensively, but the Celtics will need their offensive superstars to show up against a strong defensive team like the Cavaliers. Tatum’s length, combined with solid shooting, makes him a tough man to matchup against, and he will be confident he can bounce back from a pedestrian opening round.

There are really no holes in this Celtics lineup, and it’s not surprising to see them come in as big favorites to not only beat the Cavaliers, but to go on and lift the historic franchise’s first championship in the last 15 years.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
The Cavaliers will have their work cut out for them. However, as long as they stay consistent on the defensive end, they will always be in with a fighting chance. The injury to Jarrett Allen has hurt their interior defense, but the Cavaliers still have a gritty mentality without their seven-footer. Evan Mobley has stepped up nicely in his absence and averaged 3 blocks per game against the Magic. The Cavaliers are not only a good team inside, but they also have active hands in the open floor. Six different players averaged at least one steal per game against Orlando, and there is a real belief that this team can shut anyone down on a nightly basis.

While the Cavaliers will need their defense to step up, they will also need Donovan Mitchell to continue his torrid form. Mitchell is the only reliable offensive weapon on the Cavaliers, and he has been called on more frequently with his number two option Allen on the sidelines. Mitchell had poor showing in Games 3 and 4, both heavy Cavalier defeats, but has been consistent otherwise. He averaged 34 PPG in the other five games, with a combined 89 points scored in games 6 and 7. Mitchell shines brighter when the spotlight is on him, and the Cavaliers will need nothing short of 7 consistent showings from their star guard to stand a chance. His ability to drive into the paint and create his own shot is like few others in the league, and Mitchell is never afraid to shoot even if he has missed his last few shots.

Celtics vs Cavaliers Prediction

The Celtics are the clear favorites to win this series. And while I expect them to advance, it will not be as easy as expected. The Cavaliers defense is truly elite, and they will be able to steal a game or two when they hold the Celtics to double digit points. The loss of Porzingis greatly reduces the Celtics interior depth, and there will be long stretches where the Cavaliers have the edge. However, the Celtics are too good to lose to a team like the Cavs over a 7-game series. Boston’s scoring depth is still far superior to Cleveland’s, and Jrue Holiday will be able to limit the effectiveness of Mitchell. Darius Garland and Max Strus are both capable of heating up from deep, but they are far too inconsistent, and lack the ability to generate their own offense if they are tightly guarded. Boston will use the extra rest heading into this one to hold home court. However, if they get cold from deep, they will find themselves behind in several games. Cleveland has the potential to stretch this one to all 7 games, but I can’t imagine them winning a winner-take-all affair at TD Garden.

Prediction: Boston Celtics in 7 Games
Best Bets:

The series odds are unplayable from a Celtics perspective, as they are coming in with -2000 odds to advance. While the +1100 price tag on the Cavaliers is tempting, the Celtics are too deep to let this one slip away from them.

Instead, we will look at the series' total games to find value. The Over 4.5 (-300), Over 5.5 (+160) and Over 6.5 (+400) all have value in my eyes. The Cavaliers will be able to take at least one game off the Celtics, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them push this to 6 or 7 games. Mitchell’s heroics, combined with solid Cavalier defense, will allow them to prevent the sweep, and the prices are more than reasonable for this series to get extended. The Over 4.5 at -300 will cash as long as the Cavaliers can win at least one game, and the plus money on the series going Over 5.5 games is even more tempting.

Pick: Cavaliers vs Celtics Over 4.5 Games -300

Top Pick: Cavaliers vs Celtics Over 5.5 Games +160

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