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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers

by Spencer Toth - 4/16/2024

NBA series predictions Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers Donovan Mitchell

The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers square off in what should be a close, exciting series featuring plenty of future NBA superstars. Cleveland is still searching for their first playoff series win since the LeBron James era, and Donovan Mitchell appears poised to lead the Cavaliers to a deep postseason run. Not to be forgotten, Paolo Banchero and the Magic are one of the most disrespected young teams in the league. Banchero may not go down as the best first pick of all time, but his consistent offense, paired with a solid Magic defense, has made them a tough team to beat over a 7-game series. These two teams finished just one win apart in the regular season, and NBA fans are in for a hard-fought first-round matchup.

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Cleveland Cavaliers:

The Cavaliers have used a solid defense to secure the 4th seed in the East for the second straight season, and they will be confident they can go further than their swift 5-game exit last year. Donovan Mitchell’s team high 26.6 PPG provides reliable offense. And if he and his backcourt partner Darius Garland can remain healthy, there is no limit on how far the Cavaliers could advance. The entire Cavaliers starting lineup is in their 20’s. And while the young legs are on their side, the lack of playoff experience throughout their lineup could cause complications further down the line.

The Cavaliers have several offensive weapons, and they score the 7th most 3’s per game in the league. However, their playoff run will come down to how they defend on the defensive end of the court. They slipped out of the top 5 in defensive rating down the stretch, but that was largely due to key injuries, primarily to big man Jarrett Allen. Allen’s presence in the paint is like few others in the league, as he strikes fear in any guards looking to get an easy two points at the rim. His towering stature ensures he can do his job on the glass, and his improvement on the offensive end has been noticeable. He averaged a career high 2.7 Assists in the regular season, a full 1.0 Assists better than his next best season. By keeping his head up in the paint, Allen not only sets up his teammates, but he keeps defenses honest and has seen fewer double teams as a result.

Garland and Mitchell are tasked with a bulk of the offensive production, but nagging injuries could spell an early end to their season. Both guards missed the final few games of the regular season. And while they are good to go for Game 1 against Orlando, they still may not be at 100%. Mitchell is absolutely necessary for the Cavaliers to have any legitimate playoff hopes, as he is their most consistent shooter, and has the best overall shooting splits on the team. Garland’s ability to move the basketball without turning it over will be crucial, as the elite defenders awaiting the Cavaliers will not get baited into isolation defense against Mitchell.

The Cavaliers find themselves in a wide-open Eastern Conference (aside from the Celtics). And with their strong defensive unit, they won’t find themselves getting blown out very often. There are holes in this lineup, especially on the bench, but the Cavaliers will be confident they have what it takes to make a deep playoff run.

Orlando Magic:

The Orlando Magic held onto a top 5 seed since the middle of March yet have still not been given a fair shot at an NBA Championship. The lack of experience, playoff and otherwise, in their lineup, is concerning, but this team’s 2nd-ranked defense, combined with a deep rotation of reliable scorers, make them no easy match over a 7-game series. Orlando will only get better the more they play the same team, as their defense will adapt and become that much more lethal.

On the offensive end, Paolo Banchero will need to step up in his first postseason action. His 22.6 PPG and 5.4 Assists are both team highs, and most of the Orlando offense runs through Banchero. His pull up jumpshot still has room for improvement, but his ability to hit shots when open, and keep his head up when driving in the lane, has turned him into a reliable offensive option. His interior size and grit on the offensive end cannot be denied, but there is no doubting the fact he is the weak link on defense. The Magic have the league’s best perimeter defense, but Banchero’s occasional lackluster effort in the paint has them in the middle of the pack in paint points.

While Banchero will be tasked with the offense, he cannot do it alone. The Magic will need someone on their roster to step up on the offensive end, and they have a solid list of candidates to do so. Jalen Suggs is built for the postseason, as the perennial pest is willing to do the gritty work inside. The 22-year-old averaged only 12.6 PPG in the regular season, but he’s the Magic’s most consistent shooter, from both the mid range and behind the arc. A larger share of the ball in Suggs’ hands on offense could be what the Magic need to survive, especially considering the lack of fouls that will be called in the postseason. Alternatively, Franz Wagner has been a menace in the post. Wagner has been the second option all season long for Orlando. However, with a daunting set of centers in the Eastern Conference heavyweights lineups, Wagner’s offensive production may tick downward when he faces tough matchups.

Orlando won’t be making any deep playoff runs without A-tier defense. Their offense needs work. However, as long as they keep their foot on the pedal on the defensive end, just like the Cavaliers, they will find themselves in plenty of close contests. The inexperience is concerning, especially in crunch time. However, if the Magic can consistently get stops down the stretch, they will put themselves in a great position to win on a nightly basis.

Magic vs Cavaliers Prediction:

The 4th vs 5th seed matchups are always close, and this series is expected to go down to the wire. Both of these teams thrive on the defensive end. And whichever team can consistently lock down their opposition will end up advancing. On the perimeter, the advantage goes to Cleveland. Garland and Mitchell are one of the best backcourt duos in the league, and Suggs and Gary Harris will struggle to match their offensive production. Mitchell is one of the truly elite scorers in the league, and his ability to generate his own shots is unlike anyone on Orlando. In tight, 90-90 playoff games with a few minutes to go in the fourth, Mitchell will be able to step up and deliver crucial buckets for his team.

In the paint, it’s hard to look past Allen and Mobley against a trio of Magic bigs. Allen is one of the best rebound vacuums in the league, and Wendell Carter Jr. will be tasked at slowing him down. Allen can crash the glass on both ends of the court, and those valuable extra possessions after the Magic play 24 seconds of solid defense will be absolute backbreakers for Orlando.

Just like so many NBA playoff matchups, who is available to play will go a long way in determining the victor. The Cavaliers have a clear edge in several key departments, but there is no guarantee their elite ball handlers will be able to play to their full potential. Garland and Mitchell are both banged up. And when one of them inevitably misses a game or two, this series will get tight.

When it’s all said and done, the Cavaliers will find a way to gut out a win. Both of these teams are young, but the Cavaliers still have much more experience in the league, and that will be enough to get them past a tough Magic defense. I expect this series to go the distance and for Cleveland to close it out in front of a sold-out home crowd.

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers in 7 Games

Best Bets:

The Cavaliers are deserving favorites, but the -200 line is not something I can get behind. A defensive team like Orlando is more than capable of stealing a game on the road, and that fact alone has me looking at the series spread. Orlando (+1.5 games) is coming in with -125 odds, and I don’t expect the Cavaliers to win in 6 or fewer games. The +165 series price on the Magic is tempting, but the lack of experience has me expecting the Cavaliers to inevitably close it out if it goes to a winner take all Game 7.

While that is a good look, the Over 5.5 games at -185 is by far the best bet of the series. These two teams are almost mirror images of each other on the defensive end, and it would be a real shock to see either franchise win in 4 or 5 games. We’re being asked to lay some juice, but it is still a more than fair price for this series to go to at least 7 games.

Top Pick: Magic vs Cavaliers Over 5.5 Games -185

Pick: Orlando Magic (+1.5) -125

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