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Upcoming Kentucky Derby Prep Races

by Joey House - 3/29/2024

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.

The Kentucky Derby Prep season, which started six months ago in September, is finally entering its home stretch with a flurry of action and will culminate in the historic 150th "Run for the Roses". This holiday weekend alone sees three Grade-1 stakes, with the Arkansas and Florida Derbys, as well as the UAE Derby in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Of course, the expert horsemen at Doc’s have been monitoring all of the action and will provide you with the information to turn your wagers into profits.

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Current Kentucky Derby Prep Leaderboard and Results

Catching Freedom (125 points) Tr: Brad Cox Jockey: TBA

Catching Freedom catapulted to the top of the pack with his last-to-first run in last week's G2 Louisana Derby. He's run five races, three in the calendar year, with wins in the Smarty Jones (LS) and the aforementioned Louisana Derby. The epitome of a stalker (in a good way). Trainer Brad Cox clearly hasn't decided on a permanent mount, as his three races this year have been ridden by three different jockeys.

Endlessly (100 points) Tr: Mike McCarthy Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

One of the more seasoned runners, with six races and five wins under his belt. The only race Endlessly failed to win was the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Both runs/wins this year were graded stakes in G3 Jeff Ruby and El Camino Real Derby (LS). May be headed to the 2024 American Turf G2 instead of the G1 Kentucky Derby.

Track Phantom (70 points) Tr: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Joel Rosario

Another well-run veteran with seven races (3 wins) on his resume, Track Phantom has not won above the G3 stakes, coming in second to Sierra Leone at the Risen Star (G2) and fourth in last week's G2 Louisana Derby. Will qualify for the Derby, but most likely won't be a factor.

Upcoming Races

There are three major and one minor prep races on March 30th. The three major races (UAE Derby, Florida, and Arkansas Derbys) all award 100 points to the winner, 50 to the runner-up, and 25-15-10 to the next three places. The Cardinal Condition Stakes is the final leg of the European Road to the Kentucky Derby and will be run at Chelmsford City Racecourse. The breakdown of points for places are as follows: 30-15-9-6-3.

UAE Derby: Post-9:50 A.M. EST Sat, Mar. 30 Distance-1 3/16 miles

The field of 13 entries is highlighted by the Japanese horse Forever Young. His early morning odds are 3-2 with only three other selections (Pandagate at 6-1, George Tesoro at 7-1, and Henry Adams at 8-1) under double-digits. I'll admit that I have paid a great deal of attention to this race because it hasn't been very productive in running well in Kentucky, but Forever Young is different. He's undefeated in three starts, having just won the Saudi Derby (G3) by a nose over U.S. stakes winner Book'em Danno. He'll stretch to the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles and if he wins convincingly there, he'll most likely be a top-5 favorite in the Derby.

Arkansas Derby: Post- 7:47 P.M. EST Sat., Mar. 30 Distance 1 1/8 miles

While the Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is ineligible to send any horses to the 2024 Kentucky Derby due to his suspension at Churchill Downs, he's been sending plenty to the prep circuit. The early line favorite for Saturday's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park is the Baffert-trained Muth, at 8-5. Muth has finished in the money in all his career starts, going 3-2-0. He finished runner-up to Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November and won his last time out at the San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita Park. It is important to note that this will be Muth's first race outside of the California circuit. There are ten horses entered and Timberlake, trained by Brad Cox at 9-5 is the 2nd-betting favorite. For a long shot, I like Liberal Arts at 15-1. He's by Robert Medina, who struck out on his own after cutting his teeth in the training game under Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey and then taking on the role of general manager and trainer for Blackwood Stable. Liberal Arts has placed in all six of his races, with a 2-1-3 tally. He came in 3rd in the 2023 Iroquois (G3) back in Sept and immediately followed that up with a win at the 2023 Street Sense (G3) in October. He came in 3rd in the Southwest Stakes (G3) back in February on a muddy track. With a forecast of sunny and 75 degrees, I think that makes Liberal Arts a very live dog.

Florida Derby: Post- 6:42 P.M. EST Sat, Mar. 30 Distance 1 1/8 miles

The Florida Derby is perhaps the biggest Kentucky Derby Prep Race because, since 1953, 15 winners have gone on to win the "Run for the Roses". In addition, ten other Florida Derby runners went on to win the Kentucky Derby, so to say that all eyes of the horse-racing community will be on the Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream on Saturday is an understatement of epic proportion. 11 horses have entered, with Fierceness being the talk of the field at 8-5. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, he's coming off a disappointing 3rd-place finish in the 2024 Holy Bull (G3). He was forced 4-wide at the start and battled with the eventual winner Hades going into the back stretch, which left his gas tank empty and able to be run down by Domestic Product. If he gets a clean trip (he starts in the 10th post), he'll be tough to beat. You can get the winner of the Holy Bull, Hades, at an early morning price of 7-2. He's starting in the 2nd-post position, which has had some success.

There are a few more major stakes races on the Kentucky Derby Prep Schedule, with Santa Anita (G1), the Blue Grass (G1), and the Wood Memorial (G2) all scheduled to be run next Saturday, and the Lexington Stakes (G3) the following Saturday. The road to the Kentucky Derby is heating up and Docs is with you every step of the way.

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