Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 5/6/2025

The Timberwolves and Warriors overcame their low seeds in the opening round to set up a thrilling second round series in the Western Conference. Golden State took down the Houston Rockets in 7 games as they look to give Steph Curry and Draymond Green one more chance at postseason glory. The addition of Jimmy Butler has turned the Warriors into legitimate championship threats, and they certainly have the star power needed to make a deep playoff run. Across the court, the Timberwolves took down Luka Doncic and LeBron James in the first round without too many difficulties. They swatted them aside in five games despite not shooting well from the floor, and this looks like a team destined to finally bring Minnesota some tangible success. One of these two teams will emerge in the Western Conference Finals, while the other will be sent back to the drawing board in the offseason. This is the closest second-round series on paper and has the potential to go down as one of the greatest series of all time. There are a few betting lines that look mispriced in this series, and we will not hesitate to take advantage.

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Minnesota Timberwolves:

The Timberwolves are a team built for the NBA playoffs, and it appears as though they have finally found the right combination of players on the floor. Trading Karl-Anthony Towns was a big decision for the franchise, and it appears to have been the right one. Julius Randle is playing better basketball than he was in New York, and Donte DiVincenzo has been a consistent spark plug off the bench. While the departure of Towns certainly hurt the Timberwolves interior offense, it has unlocked Rudy Gobert to a level even his biggest supporters could not have imagined.

Gobert had a quiet series against the Lakers until his game five outburst, but he has found the ball in his hands more often all season long. His confidence on the offensive end has transformed the Timberwolves offense, and his 27-point, 24-rebound performance against Los Angeles was a truly remarkable sight. He will remain one of the best defensive players in the league for the rest of his career, but he now forces defenses to spread the floor on the other end of the court, too. This opens up space for his teammates, and one of them continues to thrive as the spotlight grows brighter on his back.

Anthony Edwards scored a career high 27.6 PPG on nearly 40% from behind the arc this season. His 43-point game four explosion against the Lakers gave the Timberwolves a commanding lead, and Minnesota finally has a player they can trust in clutch situations. The defense for this squad has never been a concern, but the emergence of Edwards has taken them to the next level this season. His ability to drain shots from deep and drive into the paint with incredible force is like few others in the league, and the Timberwolves are poised for a championship run this season.

Golden State Warriors:

The Golden State Warriors are led by a trio of aging superstars, but that doesn’t mean they should be counted out of this series. Steph Curry is undeniably still one of the best players in the league, as he led the league in free throw percentage and is the best shooter of all time from behind the arc. While Curry takes care of the scoring, Draymond Green does the dirty work on the inside. Green is often criticized for his reckless play in the paint, but the future Hall of Famer is incredibly effective with what he does. While the Warriors moved on from Klay Thompson as Curry’s sidekick, Jimmy Butler has slotted nicely into that role. Butler brings a level of playmaking that Thompson never really had, and has thrived in the supporting role alongside Curry. This is the first time Butler hasn’t been the primary option on his team, and the change of pace has allowed him to play with lethal efficiency in California. Buddy Hield was expected to be the Thompson replacement, but his lack of volume forced the Warriors to bring in reinforcements at the trade deadline if they were serious about challenging for an NBA title.

Golden State was able to shut down Alperen Sengun effectively in the first round, but their lack of a true center will eventually come back to bite them. Green is a capable defender, but he still struggles against good free throw shooters who consistently get into the paint. Minnesota doesn’t have a dominant center like Jokic or Antetokounmpo, but Gobert is still more than capable of punishing Green on the inside. Golden State has been able to overcome their lack of size with incredible hustle on the glass, but it remains to be seen if they can keep that going in the postseason. The Warriors were dominated on the glass against Houston, only out-rebounding their opposition once, and falling behind by 10+ rebounds three times in the series. Poor offense from the Rockets in the open court and from the charity stripe allowed Golden State to still advance, but that isn’t a trend they can expect to continue. The extra possessions are incredibly valuable in the postseason, and this team's aspirations hinge on their ability to crash the glass effectively.

Warriors vs Timberwolves Series Prediction:

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been haunted by their playoff failures over the last decade, but this is the year they will finally turn things around. Edwards has emerged as a true talent on the offensive end, and the Timberwolves elite defense makes them a dangerous team against anyone in the league. They shot relatively poorly against the Lakers, especially when open behind the arc, and any positive regression will make this an easy series against the Warriors. Gobert will continue to patrol the paint and limit anything easy on the inside, and his dominance on the glass will be difficult for Golden State to overcome. Randle and Edwards will provide the offense, and the rest of the Timberwolves roster is incredibly resilient on the defensive end. This is a truly complete team, and the same cannot be said for Golden State.

Steph Curry is still one of the best in the business from behind the arc, but his efficiency is dropping, and the Warriors offense is a bottom-half team in the playoffs. They were unable to get going against the Rockets for most of the series, and the Timberwolves will punish them if they play the same brand of basketball in the second round. I have been low on the Warriors all season long, and the Timberwolves are built perfectly to shut them down. Curry and Hield will steal a game from behind the arc, but the Timberwolves make it look easy again with a straightforward series win.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves in 5 Games

Best Bets:

First of all, we will be taking the Timberwolves to win this series. They are -190 favorites to do so, but that is a very reasonable price considering what we have seen in the playoffs thus far. Minnesota looks truly destined for a deep run, and even with poor shooting, they still easily beat the star-studded Lakers. Golden State’s offense is far from impressive, and their slow pace of play will fall directly into Minnesota’s hands. The -190 price tag is more than reasonable for the better team, which also has home-court advantage.

For the second bet of the series, we will take Under 5.5 games at +140 odds. Most people expect this series to go the distance, but it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Minnesota get this thing done quickly. They are the better team on both ends of the court, they have a serious rest advantage, and I am not sure the Warriors will be able to rally when they find themselves in a 0-2 hole heading home. They held on for the series win against the Rockets after nearly blowing a 3-1 lead. This team doesn’t have the magic they did when they first acquired Butler, and the Timberwolves will truly put the league on notice when they win in five or fewer.

Top Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves to win the series: -190

Pick: Warriors vs Timberwolves under 5.5 games: +140

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Start:	May 7, 2025 @ 10:10 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Series Predictions and Best Bets

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