Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Weekend Series Predictions with Odds and Analysis
With another wonderful weekend of baseball on deck we have some incredible series taking place around the country. Cleveland will travel to Detroit to try and gain some ground in the division standings while the Padres will fly to Atlanta for a weekend clash with the Braves, a team they previously swept. Kansas City and Minnesota will go head-to-head as they both try to keep pace with the MLB leading Tigers in AL Central and the Seattle Mariners will travel to Houston as they look to gain a commanding lead in the AL West. Despite all the great matchups that await us there is one that stands above the rest. The Los Angeles Dodgers will travel to New York to take on the Mets in a three-game set.
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Where They Stand
The Dodgers started the season on an absolute tear, going 8-0 and looking like they would live up to the dominant expectations the league held for them. However, thanks to injuries, they have been mediocre at best and are just 23-19 since and have won just two of their last six games. Even with the cold spell, they lead the NL West by two games over the San Francisco Giants, and they are second in the NL with a +62-run differential. One interesting thing to note ahead of this weekend’s clash is that the Dodgers are just 12-11 away from home this season. One thing that hasn’t been lacking is their ability to produce at the plate. Shohei Ohtani once again is hitting at will as he has 17 homeruns, 11 stolen bases, and 31 RBIs through 48 games. Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, and Freddie Freeman have continued to be incredible compliments to the Japanese star as the trio have combined for a 5.7 WAR with each player recording at least eight homeruns and 30 RBIs. The pitching staff has been weakened by injuries to Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, and Kirby Yates among others. This weekend will showcase two pitchers trying to find their strides after lengthy injuries and a fill in arm due to the injuries so it will be imperative for the lineup to put some runs on the board early to allow their pitchers some early comfort and time to settle in.
The Mets have also struggled as of late. They have won just two of their last seven games and have now fallen into second place in the NL East, two games behind the surging Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets are third in the NL with a +56-run differential and their 17-5 home record is the best mark in the league. Their recent struggles were away from Citi Field as they dropped back-to-back series against the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, finishing the six-game road trip with a -9-run differential. The Mets have had some internal issues circulating around the effort and mindset of star Juan Soto who has been questioned by media and personnel around the league around his hustle both as a hitter and in the field. Despite the negativity surrounding the star, he has had a productive year at the plate with eight homeruns, 21 RBIs, and a 1.7 WAR which is tied for the team best. He is tied with long-time fan favorite Pete Alonso, in WAR, who has clubbed nine homeruns while leading the team with 37 RBIs and hitting .292 across 185 at-bats so far. Kodai Senga has a 1.43 ERA through nine starts and he will get the nod for Sunday Night Baseball to conclude the series. Griffin Canning, who will open the series, has also been a pleasant surprise. The Mets picked him up after the Braves DFA’d him and he has not let them down, posting a 1.6 WAR and a 2.47 ERA across nine starts.
Team Betting Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers are just 24-25 ATS through their first 49 games this season and are just 10-12 on the road.
- The Dodgers have seen the north side of the game total in 28 games this season which is tied for the third most in the MLB.
- The Dodgers rank 12th in runs scored on the road and 16th in team ERA which is reflective of their road record this season.
New York Mets:
- The New York Mets are just 25-25 ATS through their first 50 games this season and are 12-10 at home.
- Thanks to their dominant pitching staff, the Mets have seen the under hit in 62% of their games this season, with 14 unders in 22 home games.
- The Mets have a 2.40 ERA when playing in front of their fans, which is the second lowest mark in the MLB.
Player Highlights:
Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Despite missing some time with an injury, Freeman is second in the league with a .368 AVG and has nine homeruns and 1.087 OPS which is second behind Aaron Judge.
- Ohtani ranks inside the Top Three in OPS (1.053), homeruns (17), runs (52), and triples (4).
- Andy Pages has been an emerging bat as he has a 2.0 WAR through 46 games as he has clubbed nine homeruns and has added 27 RBIs.
New York Mets:
- Alonso is third in the MLB with 16 doubles, and he is hitting .300 at home this season so expect a big series from him this weekend.
- Soto has hit .310 with a homerun and seven RBIs in 42 at-bats against lefties this season and he can make things difficult for Kershaw who is making his second start this season.
- Francisco Lindor and Luisangel Acuna have combined for 19 stolen bases this season which accounts for 48.7% of the Mets stolen bases this season.
Game 1 Preview – Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 11.25 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.47 ERA)
Game 1 Analysis: It’s the best lineup, both on paper and in terms of production, against what has been the most dominant pitching staff in the MLB thus far. Kershaw struggled in his first start of the season, and he will look to return to form here as he squares off against Canning. The Dodgers are fourth in the MLB in homeruns against right-handed pitchers and they are second in RBIs against righties as well. The Mets rank in the bottom half of the league in homeruns off of lefties and in the bottom third in the league in hits against southpaws, which gives Kershaw the edge here. Look for Kershaw to return to form here to get the series going and look for the Dodgers bats to come up with some clutch time homeruns to propel them ahead here.
My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers to Win -120, Under 8.5 +105
Game 2 – Tony Gonsolin (2-0, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Peterson (2-2, 2.86 ERA)
Game 3 – Landon Knack (2-1, 6.17 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (4-3, 1.43 ERA)
Series Picks: While the Dodgers will get an important win to open the series, I still expect the Mets to take the weekend set. They have Peterson and Senga going to end the series which is much better than what the Dodgers will throw in Gonsolin and Knack. Though the Dodgers lineup is always dangerous, they have struggled on the road this season and it will be tough to close out these big games without Michael Kopech, Treinen, Phillips, and Yates. Mets win the series to open up their nine game home stand.
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