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NBA Betting Trends Analysis and Expert Handicapping 11/17/2025

by Jeremy Block - 11/17/2025

NBA betting trends and expert handicapping Lebron James Los Angeles Lakers

Injuries have been the headlines so far just a few weeks into the NBA season. And with so many key players still sitting out indefinitely, betting has turned into a near impossible mission when it comes to making some money.

But don’t worry. I’ve done the legwork for you, breaking down the trends you need to watch when placing your next set of bets. Let’s dive in and look at some of the latest NBA trends and what to watch moving forward.

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Pacers Without Nesmith's Impact

What a turn of events for the Pacers this season. From being NBA championship contenders to barely having a healthy starting five, and have become one of the league’s worst offensive teams, and frankly, it doesn’t look like it’s getting any better anytime soon.

While the Pacers have been lucky enough to have TJ McConnell healthy and back in action, they’ve also lost Aaron Nesmith for the next month, due to a knee issue. Now, Nesmith wasn’t the go-to scorer for Indiana, but saying he wasn’t important is just flat-out wrong. He’s the third-highest scorer on the roster, averaging 15.5 points, and he’s one of their more efficient perimeter players, shooting 37% from deep this season.

With a 5-8 record against the spread, the Pacers are already struggling. Now with Nesmith sidelined, their offense just took another hit, making it even more ideal to fade them on the spread going forward.

Jazz Can't Replace Kessler’s Rebounding

Rebounding has been Utah’s biggest weapon since the start of the season, leading the league in rebounds per game—up until recently, when they were hit with the news that their leading rebounder, Walker Kessler, would be out for the season with a shoulder injury.

Why is this important? Well, for starters, Kessler wasn’t just the team’s top rebounder, he was their defensive anchor in the paint. He made sure no easy baskets were given up and no second-chance opportunities were allowed. Since Kessler’s absence in the last few games, the Jazz haven’t been the same on the glass, especially on the road.

Utah is now 1-5 on the road, and when it comes to covering the spread away from home, it doesn’t get any better—they’re 2-4. With Kessler out, the paint is wide open, giving opposing offenses more chances to crash the glass and score easy points. Keep an eye on the Jazz when they’re playing away from home; it’s been a clear weakness since Kessler’s injury.

Back the Under on Brooklyn Nets

If there's any team that waived the white flag before the season started, it's my Brooklyn Nets. But that doesn’t mean they’re not an option to consider when placing bets in the future.

Head coach Jordi Fernandez made it clear he’s starting from the ground up, trying to rebuild with young talent. And from what we've seen, 'talent' isn’t exactly the word I’d use. With a near league-worst 110 points per game and a league-worst 37 field goals made per game, not to mention not a single All-Star on their roster, this is a team you need to back the under on.

Sure, they have their moments of putting up points, but now with Cam Thomas—their second-leading scorer—averaging over 21 points per game -- sidelined with a hamstring injury for the next month, the Nets have lost just about all the offensive firepower they had, outside of Michael Porter Jr. 

Bank Lakers ATS as Home Team

The Lakers are already a solid team when it comes to covering the spread, so why am I mentioning them? Well, LeBron James is set to make his season debut in the next few days, and that alone takes this Lakers team to another level on both ends of the court.

Last season, James averaged 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.3 assists, and having him back in the mix makes the Lakers’ offense that much more dangerous—especially alongside a healthy Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

So far this season, the Purple and Gold are 3-2 against the spread at Crypto.com Arena, but with James entering the rotation, I expect that record to improve dramatically, and the Lakers to become a betting favorite to cover the spread at home. Get ahead of the curve before it's too late.

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