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2025-26 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions for Futures Betting

by Spencer Toth - 12/4/2025

NBA Championship odds predictions Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC Thunder

The NBA season is already 25% complete, as the standings begin to take shape as we head into the Christmas season. The championship odds have shifted significantly since the beginning of the year, and it’s time to re-evaluate which contenders are worthy of a championship bet at this stage of the season. There are six teams with +1600 odds or shorter, while the rest of the pack is coming in at +2500 or longer. However, not all of the favorites are worthy of a wager at their current prices. When making a championship pick at this stage of the season, especially on favorites, you are looking to secure a price that is unlikely to be available when the playoffs roll around. There is no added benefit of taking a +1000 bet now, tying up your bankroll, just for the same odds to be available five months from now. Here are the six leading contenders broken down, with the best strategy to maximize your returns in the long run. 

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Oklahoma City Thunder +130

The Thunder are the runaway favorites to win the championship this year, and it is hard to argue with their status at the top of the odds list. Not only did they win the championship last season, but their roster is brimming with young talents that have now had another year to develop their skill sets. OKC is 21-1 this season, with their only loss coming in a game where they were missing three of their five starters. This is an incredibly deep and talented team that managed to win 18 of their first 19 games with their second-best player, Jalen Williams, sitting on the bench with an injury. Once you add in the reigning MVP, WCFMVP, and FMVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it is no surprise to see the Thunder with such short odds at this stage of the season. 

Before trying to justify or dissuade you from taking the +130 championship odds, we first need to look at how dominant the Thunder have been. Gilgeous-Alexander is second in the league with 32.8 PPG this season, leading the Thunder to the fifth-best offensive rating thus far. His ability to create his own shots from deep is one thing, but he is truly special when driving into the paint. Gilgeous-Alexander is often criticized for his reliance on getting to the free-throw line, but on the flip side, opponents elect to foul him rather than allow him to score an easy bucket on the inside. It’s not the MVP's fault that he gets consistently fouled when driving to the hoop, and there is no reason for him to change his incredibly effective game. Jalen Williams is still getting going after playing only three games, but his absence has allowed Chet Holmgren and the Thunder's role players to see increased usage. The Thunder already had one of the deepest rotations in the league, and they can comfortably roll out an 11 or 12-man rotation in the regular season. 

Their offense is great, but their defense is even better. OKC has the best defensive rating in the league, and they generate the second-most steals while turning the ball over the second-fewest times per game. Those extra possessions given to their lethal offense allow them to consistently get ahead, and there is no reason to doubt OKC’s capabilities to run the table.
However, that doesn’t mean we can justify a +130 championship future that will not cash for at least six months. Even if the Thunder go on to break the Golden State Warriors' 73-9 record, the Thunder will still have odds in this range come playoff time. Maybe that can be justified with significantly less time tying up the bankroll, as there is very little upside to locking this price in now. Even if this goes to +120 or +110 in April, we will not lose sleep over the fact that we held firm. The Thunder absolutely deserve these kinds of odds, but they aren’t at a price where taking them now vs. later is worth the tradeoff. 

Verdict: Good price at +130, but little-to-no upside. 

Denver Nuggets +700

The Nuggets are a bit banged up with Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson both missing time this season, but it hasn’t stopped them from racking up wins. Nikola Jokic has looked as dominant as ever, and the Nuggets are 15-6 with an impressive 9-2 road record this season. Having Jokic on the roster has given the Nuggets front office a comfortable floor, as the three-time MVP has already proven he can carry this team to the championship. That hasn’t stopped the Nuggets from trying to build around Jokic, and they got crafty in the offseason. Shipping out Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson was a big move, but it hasn’t really paid off as of yet. Johnson is averaging 11.1 PPG this year, his lowest mark in six years. His efficiency is still solid, but he isn’t getting the usage he got in Brooklyn or Phoenix. Jamal Murray and Jokic take a majority of this team’s shots, and the best thing the Nuggets teammates can do is wait behind the arc for an open shot when the defense collapses. 

The Nuggets are certainly capable of taking down the Thunder en route to a championship, but we can’t get behind them at this price. They will be big underdogs in an inevitable series against OKC, and the +700 championship price tag offers very little upside. It is hard to imagine them getting any shorter, considering the dominance of OKC and their spot in a Western Conference littered with contenders. If anything, this price may balloon if the Nuggets string together a few losses, making this the worst NBA championship pick to make. 

Verdict: Hard pass

Houston Rockets +1000

There is a lot to like about the Rockets. This is a young team that prioritizes defense, and they now have the lethal scorer they need in Slim Reaper, Kevin Durant. Durant was expected to be the missing piece this team needed to take the next step, and the Rockets are already reaping their rewards. Losing Fred VanVleet for the season after trading Dillon Brooks hurt their guard depth, but the Rockets still have enough extra depth to stay afloat. What sets this team apart from the other contenders is their height and length. All five starters are at least 6’5 with massive wingspans, making it incredibly difficult to move the ball on the defensive end. The Rockets are top four in both offensive and defensive rating this season, and there are no standout flaws with this roster. Durant staying healthy will certainly be a point of emphasis, but he has played 17/19 games this year, with the only two missed due to a family matter. Alperen Sengun has been the other catalyst on offense, leading the team with 7.1 assists while trailing only Durant with 23.1 PPG. Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr, and Reed Sheppard have missed a combined one game this year, as the continuity for the Rockets has allowed them to rack up wins. 

It is clear this team is capable of contending, and it is a bit confusing as to why the Nuggets are a few steps ahead of them in terms of championship odds. It would be difficult to make the Rockets underdogs in any series against Denver, and this +1000 price screams value at this stage of the season. The West is full of other contenders, but only the Rockets and Thunder are capable of greatness on both ends of the court. Once the public clues into how good Durant has made Houston, who went 52-30 last season without Durant, these odds will drop. 

Verdict: Buy at +1000

New York Knicks +1100

The Knicks have emerged as the outright favorites to win the Eastern Conference after their 14-7 start to the year. They still trail the Raptors and Pistons in the standings, but the overall talent in New York is better than those aforementioned teams. Jalen Brunson is the best player in the conference, and his ability to deliver clutch shots for New York is something they were previously missing. Tom Thibodeau’s firing came as a bit of a shock, but it is clear that Mike Brown will not make the same mistakes regarding depth this year. The Knicks have a much deeper rotation than in previous seasons, and that has allowed them to stay competitive with OG Anunoby on the sidelines due to injury.
The Knicks' place in the East is certainly driving them up this odds list, but I still can’t get behind them at +1100. New York has fallen short time and time again, and expecting them to suddenly break the curse, with the same roster as last year, is too much to ask. The other contenders in the East have much better odds, and this isn’t a price I imagine shrinking in the coming months. New York is too fragile on the defensive end to win out a competitive seven-game series, and their reliance on the starting five is still present with a relatively shallow roster. When their aging legs get tired from 40+ minutes of action, the Knicks will be unable to push through a grueling two-month playoff run to the NBA Finals. 

Verdict: Pass at +1100, Buy in the +1500 range

Cleveland Cavaliers +1300

The Cavaliers are one of the best picks to make at this stage of the season. They came into the year with +700 odds to win the championship, but a slow start has seen that price nearly double. However, it is not as if the Cavaliers are playing terrible basketball with a 13-10 record, and the lengthy injury list has been their real downfall. They don’t have a single player who has suited up for every game this year. While Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter have only missed a handful of games each, extended absences for Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Lonzo Ball, and Max Strus have been detrimental to their success. Strus hasn’t even suited up yet, and there is no reason the Cavaliers should have seen their odds dip this much in the first month and a half of the year. They have been a generally healthy team in the past, and when they get their stars back and gel, this will be the most dangerous team in the conference. Mitchell is an MVP candidate, Allen and Mobley are two of the best defensive big men in the league, and the Cavaliers have no shortage of shooters on the outside. Garland playing only five games has made people forget how good this team really is, and when they start winning again, the Cavaliers will be back under +1000 odds before you know it. 

Verdict: Buy at +1300

Los Angeles Lakers +1600

On the one hand, a team with LeBron James and Luka Doncic having odds like this feels too good to be true. On the other hand, defense is optional in Los Angeles, and it is hard to envision this team taking down the other top dogs. Los Angeles is one of the most interesting teams in the league, as they have the top-end talent needed to make a deep run, but lack the defensive depth to make that actually happen. Doncic already proved he can carry a mediocre team to the NBA Finals, as he did with the Mavericks, and he now has the greatest player of all time playing alongside him. Austin Reaves has also emerged as a real threat, which makes the Lakers a reasonable choice to make at +1600 odds. It feels as though there is a bit of LeBron tax added into this price, but +1600 is still a very fair set of odds for a team with this kind of talent. Navigating the Wild West will be tough for the Lakers, but they have done it before and can certainly do it again. Don’t go crazy, but this isn’t a price that will get much higher, and a small sprinkle to cheer for the GOAT is worth a couple of bucks. 

Verdict: Tread lightly, but buy at +1600

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