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NBA Totals Betting: Predicting Hot Over and Under Teams to Start the Season

by Spencer Toth - 10/16/2025

NBA totals betting Kevin Durant Houston Rockets

One of the most effective ways to make money in the NBA is on over/unders. While the closing spreads and moneylines are often very accurate, oddsmakers can leave loose lines when it comes to the total. If you can correctly identify a favorable offensive or defensive matchup, betting the total is a great way to get ahead. Heading into the new season, oddsmakers don’t have enough data to accurately set the totals, which can give bettors an early edge with the right research. Here are two teams that have a great chance to cash the over, and two teams that will be cashing unders in the opening weeks of the season. Betting on these totals before the oddsmakers catch up to early trends will allow you to build a bankroll to use for the rest of the season. 

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Under

Houston Rockets:
Anytime a team gets Kevin Durant added to their roster, the assumption is that their scoring will increase. Durant has scored 25+ PPG in every season of his career and has maintained his efficiency into his late 30s. However, the Rockets have a stronger defense than they are being given credit for this season. This team played with a slow pace and defensive style last year, and the departure of Fred VanVleet will only slow them down even further. Without a true point guard on their roster, the Rockets will be forced into long possessions on offense where they end up taking an isolation shot late in the shot clock. 

Good defense and bad offense are often attributed to unders, but the reality is that a third factor, pace of play, also comes into the equation. Houston will be a slow unit that will build on their strong defensive play from last season. The best part is that since Kevin Durant is on the roster, the oddsmakers and public bettors will bump up this total thinking, “if Durant is on Houston, they must score a lot of points”. That will not be the case, and Houston will be a great look on the under to open up the season. 

Golden State Warriors

This is another great example of an opportunity to take early unders with a team filled with superstars. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler are household names thanks to their scoring, but that doesn’t mean the Warriors will be over machines this season. The Warriors went 41-41 to the over last season, but will lean towards the under this year. The addition of Al Horford will slow down their pace of play and improve their interior defense alongside Draymond Green. Additionally, the Warriors have the oldest roster in the league, and it is hard to envision them pushing the pace on a nightly basis. Their stingy defense and renewed thirst for an NBA title will see Golden State start with a string of unders to kick off the season. 

Atlanta Hawks

This one may come as a surprise, as the Hawks were over machines last year with a 45-35-2 record despite consistently having totals in the 230s or 240s. While the Hawks will undoubtedly have totals in that range again this season, they will be a stronger defensive unit thanks to their offseason moves. Trae Young has been a defensive liability throughout his career, and that has led to the Hawks cashing overs consistently over the last decade. However, Young’s defense has been improving, and the Hawks' front office has surrounded him with defensive wizards. Dyson Daniels is one of the best defensive players in the league after finishing second in DPOY voting last year. While he was available to play last season, Jalen Johnson missed the second half of the year due to injury. Johnson is an excellent defender both on and off the ball, and his return will help keep the Hawks' totals low. Once you add in Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s arrival, the Hawks will have a very different philosophy on defense this season. 

Over

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are expected to be one of, if not the worst, team in the league this season, and it is largely due to their play on the defensive end. The Jazz have a roster of young shooters they are looking to develop, and will happily play fast-paced, three-point-heavy basketball. Three-point shots early in the shot clock are the fastest way to cash totals, and the Jazz will be doing plenty of that this season. Lauri Markkanen will be their leader as long as he is healthy and on the court, and he tends to push the pace while disregarding defense on the other end of the court. Additionally, the Jazz will be in their fair share of blowouts this season, and it will often be thanks to poor defensive play rather than a cold night on offense. Once garbage time comes around, the pace of play often increases, and the Jazz will be generous enough on defense to consistently allow 125+ points on a nightly basis. 

Miami Heat

This one will come as a surprise after the Heat had the best record to the under last season. They cashed the under 47 times compared to the over just 35 times. Miami has been known for its slow pace of play in recent years, but things will begin to change this season. We can expect totals in the 200s and 210s this season for Miami, but this year, they will be clearing these lines. Tyler Herro’s early injury certainly dampens their offense, but that will keep their lines even lower in the opening weeks of the new season. 

The arrival of Norman Powell is the driving force for this play. Powell is coming off the best shooting season of his career, and he will transform this Miami offense. He is no slouch on defense, but his fast pace of play, coupled with lethal shots from deep, will be a big change in Miami. This trend won’t be very popular in the public’s eye, and it could take several weeks before the oddsmakers start adjusting their lines to match a new-look Miami offense. This won’t be the highest scoring team in NBA history, but as long as they keep getting the rock bottom totals they did last season, the overs will be a money machine in South Beach. 

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks used to be a strong defensive team led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Greek Freak no longer has the help he needs on the defensive end. The departure of Brook Lopez for Myles Turner will instantly lead to more points in Milwaukee, both for the Bucks and their opponents. Turner can rain threes and spread the floor just like Lopez did, but his ability to have the ball in his hands will make it even harder for opponents to slow down his partnership with Antetokounmpo. On the other end of the court, Turner doesn’t get into position as fast as Lopez did, which will allow teams to get easy twos in transition. Turner also struggles when he is left alone in the open court, and the Bucks don’t have the help needed to mitigate his defensive issues. They went exactly 41-41 on the totals last year, which will leave the oddsmakers thinking they have a good read on this team. Lopez for Turner may seem like a straight swap between a pair of three-point shooting bigs, but that is not the case. The Bucks will come out strong on offense this season, and cash overs to kick off the season. 

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