NCAA Football Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/8/2025

College football Week 3 opening line report Danny O’Neil Wisconsin

Three weeks into the OLR, and college football has already descended into beautiful chaos. Underdogs are biting, ranked teams are falling, and the betting board is anything but predictable. Last week's headline shocker came courtesy of unranked USF, which stunned No. 13 Florida 18–16 in Gainesville as an 18-point underdog. It marked the Bulls' second straight win over a ranked opponent, sealed by a walk-off field goal that sent the Swamp into stunned silence. The result wasn't just an upset—it was a statement. USF, absent from preseason polls and overlooked by oddsmakers, is rewriting expectations one Saturday at a time. And with the betting public still reeling from Week 1's carnage, the early OLR slate has become a minefield for favorites and a goldmine for sharp bettors.

Our plays for Week 2 resembled Duke's game against Illinois. The Blue Devils grabbed a slight 3–0 early lead on their first drive of the game and never saw it again, losing 45–19 to the visiting Big Ten foe. We started 1–0 with Northern Illinois's 20–9 loss at Maryland as an 18.5-point underdog. We then proceeded to lose the next four plays, capped by Marshall's 21–20 home loss as 10-point chalk to Missouri State, in its first year at the FBS level.

This weekend's marquee matchups promise more excitement, headlined by the now-ranked No. 18 USF (No. 23 in Coaches Poll) traveling to Coral Gables to face No. 5 Miami as a 16-point underdog in what will easily be the biggest game ever broadcast on the CW. The Bulls have a chance to become the first team since Michigan to begin the 1985 season absent from the polls and win its first three games against ranked opponents. If USF wins on Saturday as a 16-point dog, a bettor who backed them on the moneyline and then rolled the money over into the next wager would walk away with over $12,000.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Betting Trends in College Football

Early in the 2025 season, home teams have dominated straight-up with a 146–33 record but have hovered around break-even against the spread at 89–87–3. Favorites, as expected, perform strongly overall, going 156–23–0 straight-up and 91–85–3 against the spread for a modest edge. Home favorites are particularly tough to beat outright at 138–15–0, yet they've delivered only a slightly negative return on investment for ATS bettors with a 77–73–3 mark, suggesting value in scrutinizing matchups where public money leans heavily on the chalk.

These trends highlight the importance of context, as blowouts can be covered easily while close games often fall short. Underdogs have been on a historic run early in the season, covering the spread at impressive rates and leading to sportsbooks crushing the public in Week 1, with key upsets like those in high-profile games shifting the narrative away from chalk-heavy betting.

Over/under trends lean toward the over for several programs, with teams like Texas Tech, Tennessee, Navy, and Notre Dame all sitting at 100 percent to the over through their first games, indicating high-scoring affairs in non-conference matchups. Head-to-head series also reveal intriguing patterns, with over 135 notable trends influencing 2025 outcomes, such as longstanding rivalries where one side consistently covers or games that frequently go under the total due to defensive styles.

Week 3's Slate

Week 3 of the 2025 college football season marks a transitional stretch, where some programs wrap up non-conference play while others dive into the heart of league competition. With USF entering the rankings, the weekend now boasts three ranked-on-ranked showdowns that could reshape the early playoff picture: No. 6 Georgia visits No. 15 Tennessee, No. 5 Miami hosts No. 18 South Florida, and No. 8 Notre Dame travels to No. 16 Texas A&M. Other notable matchups include No. 12 Clemson at Georgia Tech and the renewal of the Backyard Brawl between Pitt and West Virginia. Whether it's a conference opener, a non-league measuring stick, or a rivalry with postseason implications, Week 3 offers a dynamic mix of styles and stakes that will shape the national conversation heading into the fall grind.

Wisconsin vs. No. 18 Alabama (-20.5/46.5) Sep. 13, Noon ABC

Wisconsin travels to Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog, and I'm backing the Badgers as a big dog to cover. Under head coach Luke Fickell, Wisconsin's defense has opened the season with grit and discipline, well-equipped to disrupt Alabama's passing attack as the Crimson Tide continues to work through early-season adjustments following its Week 1 loss. On the other side of the ball, the Badgers lean into a physical, run-heavy approach behind a seasoned offensive line and dependable backs. That style should help them control the clock, limit explosive plays, and keep the game within reach inside the hostile confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium.

No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 15 Tennessee (+3.5/50) Sep. 13, 3:30 ABC

Georgia enters Week 3 with a chance to make a statement in Knoxville, opening as 7 points on the road against Tennessee. This line has already taken substantial action and is currently seeing the Bulldogs as 3.5-point road favorites. We were bullish on the Bulldogs before and like them more now. Their dominance at the line of scrimmage should control tempo and disrupt the Volunteers' rhythm inside Neyland Stadium. Carson Beck's replacement, QB Gunnar Stockton, continues to lead efficient, mistake-free drives, while Georgia's defense excels in limiting explosive plays. Expect the Bulldogs to wear down Tennessee over four quarters and pull away late for a convincing win that reinforces their standing atop the SEC.

Florida vs. No. 3 LSU (-9.5/49.5) Sep. 13, 7:30 ABC

This matchup lost much of its shine after Florida collapsed at home against USF, a loss that exposed glaring issues on both sides of the ball. A win in Death Valley would go a long way toward restoring confidence, but Billy Napier's squad looks ill-equipped for the challenge. LSU has opened the season with explosive offensive rhythm, leaning on Kyren Lacy and a rejuvenated ground game to stretch defenses and create space. Florida's lack of speed on defense makes it vulnerable to LSU's playmakers, setting the stage for the Tigers to seize control early and pull away in front of a hostile crowd. A double-digit win for Brian Kelly's team feels increasingly likely.

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Start:	September 29, 2025 @ 8:15 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

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