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Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks Playoff Series Predictions and Best Bets

by Spencer Toth - 4/14/2026

Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks series predictions Nickeil Alexander-Walker

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks renew their rivalry from the 2021 playoffs, where the Hawks took down the Knicks in four games to one. These are two very different squads compared to that playoff matchup, with Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu are the only two Hawks still on the roster. The heated rivalry will get another chapter written, as both sides look to take advantage of a wide-open Eastern Conference. 

New York is still looking to snap its 53-year championship drought, and a stacked starting five appears to have them in the best position in decades to go on a deep playoff run. Jalen Brunson is a killer on offense, while the rest of the Knicks' starting five are all capable defenders on the other end of the court. New York’s +2200 championship odds are much shorter than the Hawks' +10000 odds, but a red-hot Atlanta side since the All-Star break will have them feeling confident they can pull off this upset. 

Screams of “F*** Trae Young" will undoubtedly be heard echoing throughout Madison Square Garden, as neither of these two teams expects to go home in the first round. Can the Knicks get revenge for their stunning elimination five years ago, or will Atlanta’s roster of rising stars get one step closer to an improbable championship? Let’s dive right into the breakdown and best bets. 

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New York Knicks:
The New York Knicks made the shocking decision to fire Tom Thibodeau last year and have started to reap the rewards of that move. This team limped out of the playoffs after getting banged up with injuries after they had three players in the top five for minutes and an underdeveloped bench unit as a result. Mike Brown has flattened the minutes this year, with Jalen Brunson (10th overall) being the only player in the top-30 in terms of minutes per game this season. A more balanced roster will hopefully allow the Knicks to stay healthy, as their balanced starting five is a tough team to beat over a seven-game series. 

Jalen Brunson leads the New York offense, which finished 3rd in the NBA in terms of offensive rating. Brunson’s 26 PPG is in line with his four-year average in New York, but his clutch shooting and previous playoff efficiency make him the catalyst for this team. Brunson’s ability to generate his own offense is unstoppable, and once he gets to his left hand in the paint, it almost always results in two points. The other primary offensive threat for New York is Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns and Brunson operate an effective pick-and-roll in the high post, with Towns’ ability to knock down the three-ball keeps defenses stretched. His 20.1 PPG with 11.9 rebounds create impressive stat lines, and his ability to score from all three levels and the free throw line makes fouling not an option. The rest of the Knicks starters, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges, are all defensive anchors. Anunoby is arguably the best three-and-D wing in the league, as he can shut down opposing ball handlers while consistently knocking down corner threes on the other end. Josh Hart and his never-ending gas tank lets him play hard on both ends, and is the heart and soul of this unit. Finally, Bridges can hit tough jumpers late in the shot clock while using his length to disrupt passing lanes on defense, rounding out the starting five for New York.
Miles McBride, Landry Shamet, and Mitchell Robinson are the three bench players likely to see meaningful minutes in this series. McBride is a threat from deep but is undersized on defense, while Shamet hasn’t developed into the player many had hoped. Robinson will look to bully the Hawks in the paint, but unless he can hit his free throws (40.8% on the season), he is a liability on offense. 

New York is a well-rounded team that is top-five in both offensive and defensive ratings this year but has a mountain of pressure to deliver New York a championship. The Knicks have failed to capitalize on strong regular seasons in the past, and nothing is guaranteed in this matchup. Their stellar 30-10 record at MSG, coupled with home court advantage in this series, has them as favorites to advance to the second round in a wide-open Eastern Conference. 

Atlanta Hawks: 

The Atlanta Hawks have had a roller coaster of a season that has somehow ended up with them in a playoff spot. After four straight years in the play-in tournament, the Hawks looked as though they would be ending that streak for the wrong reason with a 26-30 record at the All-Star break. However, a 19-3 run in their next 22 games allowed them to clinch a playoff spot without needing the play-in, setting up this matchup against New York. 

Atlanta’s roster looks very different than it did on opening night, with Trae Young, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kennard, and Vit Krejci all no longer with the team. The Hawks set themselves up for the future by getting CJ McCollum, Jonathan Kuminga, and Jock Landale in return, with a trio of other bench players also joining the roster. While the Hawks ascension up the standings can be attributed to crafty work by their GM, the real reason for their success is interior development. Dyson Daniels won Most Improved Player last season, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson are both frontrunners this year. Onyeka Okongwu has also greatly improved since last season, giving the Hawks a suddenly dangerous squad with a bright future ahead of them. 

In this series, Jalen Johnson will need to take over. Johnson is the lynchpin on offense for the Hawks, as he can score from anywhere on the court, effectively pass the basketball, and crash the glass on both ends. After an incredible start to the season, Johnson cooled off in the second half but still finished with the second most triple doubles in the league behind Nikola Jokic. He needs to be the primary option for the Hawks; otherwise, they will struggle to break down the Knicks' interior defense. 

The other scoring option for Atlanta is Alexander-Walker. The nine-year NBA vet has seen his PPG more than double to 20.8 PPG from 9.4 PPG last year while shooting 39.9% from behind the arc. His deep ball has been automatic this season, while his defense hasn’t missed a step on the other end of the court. New York struggles to defend the three-ball, and Alexander-Walker’s shooting could be what makes or breaks this series for the Hawks. 

Finally, there is Dyson Daniels. Daniels is still most effective on the defensive end and will be draped on Jalen Brunson for much of this series. However, his offensive development has made him no longer a liability on that end of the floor, as he is stretching the floor and crashing the offensive glass whenever possible. Daniels getting involved with rebounds is crucial for the Hawks, as they lack a physical big man to control the paint. Their gang-rebounding has led to several extra possessions this season, and they will need Daniels to be hungry on the glass as they use a three-point barrage to find success.
Atlanta moves the ball well on offense with the second-most assists and will need to generate open looks in this series. Okongwu and Mouhammed Gueye are both taller than they are wider and will struggle to stop Towns and others from driving into the paint. The Hawks' interior defense has been average this year, so they will need to make up for it with threes early and often if they hope to pull off this upset. 

Series Prediction: 

This matchup will be fascinating for the neutral fans, as the Knicks have a clear advantage on the inside, but the Hawks have a clear advantage from behind the arc. New York has really struggled to slow down the three-ball this year, and if this one turns into a shooting contest, the Hawks will win more often than not. Brunson is a liability on defense, and with all five Hawk starters capable of shooting from deep, they will happily attack whoever Brunson is guarding in this series. Alexander-Walker will need to keep up his incredible form this year, but between him, CJ McCollum, Johnson, and Okongwu, the Hawks have no shortage of other shooters to lean on.
However, things are not looking as great for the Hawks on the inside. Towns and Robinson are both very physical centers that Okongwu will struggle to slow down. Quin Snyder may look to Jock Landale for interior support, but his lingering injury has his Game 1 status in doubt. Towns and Robinson will score on the inside while easily cleaning up the glass, allowing the rest of the Knicks shooters to capitalize on second-chance opportunities. This series will come down to which team can defend their weakest aspect, and I have to side with the Hawks to maintain their red-hot streak heading into the playoffs. 

Three points is always worth more than two, and Atlanta will hit enough deep balls to overcome their interior shortcomings. They went 22-19 on the road this year and have a history of silencing MSG, so when they split the first two games, they will be in a great position to advance. It won’t be as straightforward as their win over the Knicks five years ago, but Atlanta will take this one to seven games, where anything can happen. The bright lights will get to the Knicks, and the Hawks will take this one in another heartbreaker for New York. 

Prediction: Atlanta Hawks in Seven Games

Best Bets:
The Hawks come into this series as +235 underdogs to advance, which undoubtedly has plenty of value. While I do like a sprinkle there, most of your wager should instead go on the Hawks +1.5 game spread at +105 odds. We are still getting a great price on Atlanta, and they will certainly be underdogs in a theoretical Game 7 in New York. While I give them the slight edge, taking a bit of insurance while still locking in plus money is the way to go. Atlanta’s three-point advantage will allow them to pull off one road upset, and I don’t have much faith in the Knicks to close things out in a potential Game 6 on the road. The series price is standard, and has better odds, but the smarter pick for this matchup is to take the spread instead. 

For the final bet of this series, we will take Nickeil Alexander-Walker to lead the series in threes at +105 odds. Alexander-Walker has been explosive this year, averaging a series-high 3.1 makes per game. No other player comes close to that total, and it is unlikely the Hawks shift away from his hot hand with their season on the line. I expected to have to lay negative odds for this prop, and barring an injury, Alexander-Walker will lead the series in threes more often than not. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks to Win Series +235

Top Pick: Atlanta Hawks Series Spread (+1.5 Games) +105

Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Most Three-Pointers in the Series +105

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