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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 1/27/2026

by Spencer Toth - 1/27/2026

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs

The Christmas fun is in the rearview mirror, the playoffs are still months away, as the NBA moves into the grueling stage of the regular season. These games mean just as much as contests No. 1 or No. 82, but some teams have taken their foot off the gas with the All-Star break approaching. 
Following against the spread and over/under trends can be a great way to stay on top of the NBA mainlines. Knowing when to tail the hot hand or fade an overvalued team is what separates casual bettors from expert handicappers. Over the last few weeks, some teams have been consistently beating spreads, while others have fallen short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams, with the highest and lowest scorers in the NBA, with predictions on whether or not these trends will continue. 

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The Hot:

LA Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers have had a dramatic turnaround, and the spreads cannot keep up. After starting the year 6-21, the Clippers have won 15 of their last 18 games to move to 21-24. That includes an 8-2 streak in the last ten games, with seven of those eight wins covering the spread. Their offense has come to life, their defense has stepped up, and a relatively clean bill of health has allowed the Clippers to get right back into playoff contention. They have closed as a favorite in only six of their last ten, winning outright as an underdog on two occasions. The Clippers have some tough matchups upcoming, so they are likely to avoid big spreads that usually come with lengthy hot streaks, meaning they will still be able to keep this streak up as long as they continue to win basketball games. Maybe Chris Paul was the problem after all… 

Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors have been incredibly streaky this season, and they are now in the midst of another hot streak. They have won four in a row, have gone 6-4 in their last 10, and are 7-3 against the spread in that span. The return of RJ Barrett from injury sparked their recent turnaround, as well as consistent play on the defensive end of the court. Immanuel Quickley and Jamal Shead have the best net rating of any duo in the league this season, as the pair of point guards have been electric on both ends of the court. The oddsmakers haven’t given the Raptors the respect they deserve as they sit in the third seed of the conference. They’ve been a double-digit underdog twice this season and have only been a double-digit favorite three times. For a 29-19 franchise, that is a split that is hard to justify. 

The Cold:

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have gone 6-4 in their last ten games, but only 3-7 against the spread. They won but failed to cover as double-digit favorites against the Bulls, Grizzlies, and Pelicans, as Houston has lacked the ability to pull away on the scoreboard. A scorer like Kevin Durant surrounded by a lengthy defense is a recipe for success, but it hasn’t been a recipe for blowouts in Houston. The Rockets play 28 of their final 44 games at home, which means they will likely be receiving double-digit spreads in many of their games down the stretch. When the Rockets face a worthy opponent, they often prevail, but they don’t put their foot on the gas against the bottom-tier NBA franchises. Matchups are everything in the NBA, so while we can’t say the Rockets will snap this streak anytime soon, when the spread is minimal, Houston will cover. 

Milwaukee Bucks

It appears as though Giannis Antetokounmpo may have played his last game as a Buck. The vibes in Milwaukee have never been lower, as the Bucks have gone 4-6 straight up and 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games. Antetokounmpo is injured again, which means the Bucks go from an average team to a bottom-feeder without the Greek Freak. A lengthy injury report for the Bucks should allow them to stay as the underdog, but it is hard to wipe away a decade of dominance from the minds of sports bettors. Milwaukee lost outright the last three times they were favored (-2, -6, and -9), and have been blown out by 18+ points in three of their last four defeats. The end is nowhere in sight for the Bucks, and they are an easy fade with any short spreads for the foreseeable future. 
High Scorers:

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are starting to find their rhythm on offense, as Erik Spoelstra has changed the identity of his squad. Slow-paced defense was the priority in Miami for the last decade, but that is no longer the case as the Heat play at the fastest pace with a top-ten offense. This has resulted in plenty of overs this year, as the Heat have gone 7-3 to the over in their last ten games. The oddsmakers have tried to keep up, keeping the total at 230+ in all but one game since Christmas, but the Heat continue to fly over the posted line. While this one may seem like a lock to continue, the oddsmakers are starting to get even more aggressive with the closing lines. Even the high-flying Heat can’t consistently cover totals of 240+, making them a prime ‘sell high’ candidate at this stage of the season. 

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have had a miserable season, and they aren’t 7-3 to the over thanks to strong defense. Sacramento has lost five straight, allowing 117+ points in all of those contests. Their offense has been respectable, but it is hard to get stops on the other end with minimal effort, nothing to play for, and a long list of injuries. Sacramento has already accepted its fate as a lottery team and will be looking to sell at the trade deadline. Their stars are looking to boost their stock with impressive boxscores, and the defense has fallen apart as a result. They haven’t seen a 240+ total since December 6th against the Heat, and will keep cashing overs if the oddsmakers refuse to adjust. 

Low Scorers:

Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons have stayed under the total in nine of their last ten games thanks to truly remarkable defense. The Pistons have the second-best defensive rating in the league this season, and they have turned it up a notch over the last few weeks. They haven’t allowed 120+ points yet in 2026, with their highlight defensive showing coming in a 121-78 win over the Indiana Pacers last week. Their interior defense is spearheaded by Jalen Duren, but their perimeter defense has been the real difference maker. The oddsmakers are trying to react accordingly, giving Detroit a closing total of under 230 points in nine straight games, but the Pistons just keep cashing unders. Until the totals drop below 220, the under will still be the way to go. 

San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs have the third-best defense, and have matched Detroit’s 9-1 record to the under in the last ten. While San Antonio has only gone 6-4 straight up in that span, their strong defense is a real talking point with the playoffs just months away. Victor Wembanyama’s return helps the Spurs on offense, but it turns their defense from a good to a truly great unit. Casual bettors see Wembanyama active and assume the game will be higher scoring, but that simply hasn’t been the case. San Antonio hasn’t had a sub-220 total yet this season, and will continue to add onto their league-leading 29-18 to the under until that happens. 

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