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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 2/27/2026

by Spencer Toth - 2/27/2026

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Rudy Gobert Minnesota Timberwolves

The NBA All-Star break is in the rearview mirror as teams lock in for the final 25 games of the season. Over the last few weeks, some sides have been able to consistently cover the spread, while others have been falling short of expectations. It is now crunch time for the NBA contenders, as there is still plenty to play for in the final 6 weeks of the regular season. While there is no guarantee these trends will continue, taking a look at the hottest and coldest teams against the spread, as well as the highest and lowest scorers, can help you finish off the regular season on the right foot. 

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The Hot:

Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets have caught fire at the right time, going 7-3 straight up and 9-1 against the spread in their last ten games. It’s been a team effort, as LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, and Miles Bridges all average between 17.9 and 20.9 PPG, respectively. All four are healthy together, which has allowed the Hornets to build some momentum and finally emerge from their decade-long rebuild. The oddsmakers were hesitant to give them respect earlier this year, allowing them to amass a league-leading 38-22 record ATS this season, but they have started to adjust the lines. Charlotte closed as an 8.5-point favorite or larger in three straight, all on the road, and they won all three by at least 17 points. A healthy Hornets lineup should not be underestimated, and there is no reason to expect anything other than a consistent effort from this side night after night. 

San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs have won ten straight games to close the gap at the top of the West to just 1.5 games. They have gone 8-2 against the spread during their win streak, winning but failing to cover against the Raptors (-7.5) and Kings (-18.5). Victor Wembanyama has been a menace on both ends of the court, and it looks as though the Spurs’ rise to the top is coming a lot quicker than many people imagined. Their defense is among the best in the league, their balanced offense is hard to contain, and the Spurs' hot streak doesn’t appear to be coming to an end anytime soon. The thick spreads will prevent them from staying hot against the spread, but with a minimal spread against a top team, the Spurs will prevail more often than not. 

The Cold:

Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls have lost 11 games in a row and have only covered the spread once in that span. They were sellers at the trade deadline with Coby White and Nikola Vucevic traded away, and a lengthy injury report hasn’t helped either. Josh Giddey has been exceptional, but the young guard is on a strict minutes restriction and doesn’t have much help around him. Chicago has been an underdog in six straight and will remain in that role for most of their final 25 games. They can’t even blame scheduling for their downfall, as they have played the last five at home and still lost by 6+ points each time. Until the spreads start hitting double digits, it is hard to imagine Chicago covering in the near future. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Minnesota Timberwolves have gone 6-4 in their last ten, but only 2-8 against the spread. Winning is the most important thing in the NBA, especially at this time of year. The Timberwolves won but didn’t cover against the Raptors (-2.5), Trail Blazers (-6.5), Clippers (-8.5), and Mavericks (-14). A healthy Timberwolves side should probably be winning these games more convincingly, but they have clung to a top-four seed in the West by surviving close contests. The Timberwolves’ style of play prevents them from pulling away, but their rock-solid late-game defense still ensures they win more often than not. Their recent losing streak against the spread has caught the oddsmakers' attention, and I expect Minnesota to start getting a little less respect on the point spread. They have several upcoming games against playoff contenders, so when their spread dips and they still win, Minnesota will become a very reliable pick. 

High Scorers:

Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies have gone 8-2 to the over in their last ten games. While that could mean their offense finally came to life, the reality is that it has been their defense that has fallen apart. Memphis has allowed 114+ points in 10 straight games, with 122+ points allowed in eight of those contests. Their inability to score the basketball has kept their closing totals below 240 points, allowing them to consistently cash the over. Memphis is certainly not as good on offense as they are bad at defense, but they still average 119.4 PPG in their last ten. Their lack of healthy household names available on a nightly basis has the public thinking they will stay under, but their abysmal defending and fast pace of play have allowed their games to turn into shootouts. The oddsmakers will catch up eventually, but anything south of a 240-point total will end up in an over for Memphis.  

Portland Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the surprise teams of the season so far, and their consistent offense has allowed them to go 8-2 to the over in their last ten games. Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe have led the way on offense, with their willingness to crash the offensive glass the driving force behind this string of overs. Their offense is not very efficient, but those fast and easy extra buckets have driven up their scores. However, this is a trend that may not be able to continue, as the oddsmakers have given Portland a 230+ total in eight of their last nine games and have only been rising higher more recently. 

Low Scorers:

Boston Celtics

Boston has gone 21-37 on the total this year, with a 2-8 record in their last ten games. The Celtics' defense has allowed them to rise to the top of the Eastern Conference, and they will happily follow this script into the postseason. Their offense hasn’t been the same this year without Jayson Tatum, but their improved defense has allowed them to still stay competitive. They have gone 8-2 straight up in their last ten, allowing less than 100 points in five of those games. That includes 81 allowed against the Suns and 79 allowed against the Bucks, as Boston can truly clamp down when it has to. Their high-profile names and long list of accolades will keep the public on the over and the totals nice and high, but the under will be the way to go into the postseason. 

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta has started to turn their season around after the trade deadline, and their defense has been the difference-maker as of late. Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Onyeka Okongwu are three truly elite defenders, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Zaccharie Risacher round out the starting five. That unit will rarely get torn apart, and the Hawks have gone 7-3 to the under in their last ten as a result. Their slow pace of play, coupled with mediocre offense, has kept their totals low, and we can expect more of the same down the stretch until they start getting sub-220-point closing lines. 

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