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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 3/24/2026

by Spencer Toth - 3/24/2026

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Dejounte Murray New Orleans Pelicans

There are fewer than a dozen games left in the NBA regular season, as teams jockey for positioning in the postseason and play-in tournament. The top-20 teams are all but decided, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to play for as the regular season winds down. Over the last few weeks, some teams have been able to finish the season off strong, while others have been falling short of expectations. Keeping track of against-the-spread trends and an eye on the totals is crucial for long-term success on the NBA mainlines. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread, with the highest and lowest scorers over the last two weeks. 

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The Hot: 

New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans don’t have anything to play for as they are all but eliminated from playoff contention, but that hasn’t stopped them from racking up wins down the stretch. They have won six of their last ten games while posting an 8-1-1 against-the-spread record. They covered as an underdog in a pair of two-point defeats against the Rockets and Suns, pushed against the Cavaliers as five-point underdogs, and fell one point short of covering the +8.5 in their nine-point loss to the Lakers. They also covered in all six of their wins, as a favorite in four of those contests. The Pelicans' recent surge can be attributed to the clean bill of health, as this team looks poised to compete next season. Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones are playing excellent basketball on defense, and the oddsmakers are still being deceived by the Pelicans’ abysmal overall record. This team has traded its first-round pick, so there are no tanking issues down the stretch, meaning it will be hard to turn down the Pelicans in the underdog role. 

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta has won 12 of their last 13 games, going 11-2 against the spread in that span. The Hawks have closed as a favorite in all but two of those games and a double-digit favorite on six different occasions. However, a healthy Hawks side has been able to swat aside the league’s bottom feeders, consistently finding a way to win and cover regardless of the venue. Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are both in the running for the Most Improved Player award this season, as the Hawks are a real dark horse in the East. While this hot streak has been impressive, things are about to get much more difficult for the Hawks. All but one of their last 13 opponents currently have fewer than 40 wins, while six of their final ten games are against teams ahead of them in the standings. Atlanta may fizzle out down the stretch, so unless they are in the underdog role, this against-the-spread streak will come to an end.
The Cold:

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas has gone 2-7-1 against the spread in their last ten, going 2-8 straight up in that span. The oddsmakers have put Dallas in the underdog role in all but one of those games, but they haven’t been giving a banged-up, unmotivated Mavericks side enough points to cover the spread. Their primary target in the last dozen games will be developing Cooper Flagg and their other prospects, not winning basketball games. It is no surprise to see Dallas losing, but what is surprising is the single-digit spreads in their last four games. Dallas unsurprisingly lost them all, and until this team starts getting less respect than they already have, they will keep falling short of the number. 

Houston Rockets

Houston is 3-7 against the spread in their last ten, but are a much more respectable 5-5 straight up. They won but failed to cover in a one-point win over the Heat and a two-point win over the Pelicans, and still cling to the final playoff spot above the play-in tournament. Kevin Durant has continued to find consistency on offense, but Alperen Sengun’s lingering injury has disrupted their earlier momentum. Durant and a defensive Rockets side will rarely find themselves in the underdog role, making it hard for them to stay ahead of the spread in close games. Houston has the 7th-easiest strength of schedule down the stretch, which means they will continue to see hefty spreads attached to their victory. Houston will pick up wins, but trusting this disjointed team to pull away is a different story.  

High Scorers:

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat has transformed its identity, becoming a fast-paced offensive team after previously being a low-scoring defensive powerhouse. They have flown over the total in 8 of their last ten games, despite seeing a closing number of 235+ in five of their last seven. They play at the fastest pace in the league this season, so even their middle-of-the-pack offense has produced the second most PPG this year. Miami has dealt with injury issues this season, but they now have their starting five healthy and ready to go, while Erik Spoelstra continues to encourage his side to get out in transition. It appears as though the oddsmakers are starting to adjust to the Heat’s playstyle again, making this a prime opportunity to ‘sell high’ on the Heat’s totals. 

Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers are not in this column thanks to a surging offense. Instead, their defense has completely fallen apart, posting an 8-2 record to the over in their last ten games. The Pacers did snap their franchise-record 16-game losing skid with a win over Orlando, but still didn’t get stops on defense, allowing 126 points. The Pacers have allowed 120+ in 14 of their last 16 games, allowing 130+ in nine of those games. Their abysmal offense, which gets even worse on the road, has kept their closing totals under 240, but they keep flying over the number. Until the oddsmakers start accurately assessing just how bad the Pacers' defense is, this trend will not end anytime soon. 

Low Scorers:

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder have flexed their defensive muscles during their 12-game win streak, going 9-3 to the under in that span. They play at a slow pace of play with an emphasis on shutting teams down in transition, and their deep rotation allows them to play hungry defense for all 48 minutes. The public is well aware of the defending champions’ dominance, but casual bettors assume that is due to their play on the offensive end. That has kept their totals from dipping under 210 points, which is where they rightfully belong. Against bottom-half teams, look for the Thunder to keep them in double digits en route to more unders. 

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics have gone 25-46 on the total this year and find themselves in this column for the third straight edition. They have gone 3-7 in their last ten, as their slow pace of play combined with strong defense has been the driving force. Jayson Tatum's return didn’t change head coach Joe Mazzulla's game plan, as they have been finding great success on that end of the floor. They have only allowed more than 112 points twice in their last ten games, keeping their opponents to 100 or fewer in six of their last 12 games. It is hard to buck a trend that has been so consistent in the last two weeks, the last two months, and all season long. 

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