Docs Website

54 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Hot and Cold NBA Playoff Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 4/13/2026

by Spencer Toth - 4/13/2026

NBA hot and cold ATS and over under Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

The NBA regular season is now behind us as teams buckle up for the play-in tournament and playoffs. The pace of play tends to slow down in the postseason, while the defensive intensity increases, which makes betting on totals especially fascinating compared to the regular season. Most casual bettors will look at year-long against-the-spread and total trends for the playoff sides, but the more important numbers rest in the last few weeks. Some teams have been red hot ATS to close out the year, while others have fallen short. Here are the hottest and coldest playoff and play-in teams against the spread, with the highest and lowest scorers over the last ten games. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

The Hot:

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics went 8-2 both against the spread and straight up to close out the season, clinching the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Despite their dominant record this season, Boston closed as the favorite in just six of their last ten games, securing outright wins against the Hornets (+2.5) and the Magic (+13). They also covered in their other six wins, including a pair of -18 spreads, and Boston continues to defy expectations this season. This is a dangerous team heading into the playoffs, and they will take on either the Magic or 76ers in the first round. Boston will likely be a favorite in every game against either of those teams. Their ability to press when they have the advantage has allowed them to cover in their last nine wins, making them a team to watch in the first round. 

Detroit Pistons:

The Detroit Pistons overcame Cade Cunningham’s injury to win eight of their final 10 games, going 8-2 ATS in that span. Daniss Jenkins stepped up admirably as the backup point guard, and the Pistons' closing numbers were much shorter than earlier in the season. It didn’t really matter, as seven of the Pistons' final eight wins were by double digits, allowing them to easily cover the spread. While Detroit exceeded expectations this year, a first-round matchup against the final play-in tournament team will see them come in as double-digit favorites in the postseason. The Pistons' hard-nosed defense fueled their wins this year, but they still went a mere 44-37-1 against the spread despite finishing 12 wins higher than their preseason win total. The Pistons often prevail in close games, so if their spreads start reaching 10+ points, fading Detroit and hoping for close games may be the way to go. 

The Cold: 

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors have had a disastrous season and now need back-to-back wins to make the playoffs. Steph Curry is back, and the Warriors are as healthy as ever, but they are still just 3-7 against the spread in their final ten games. They limped into the 10th seed, riding a three-game losing streak that includes an ugly loss to the Sacramento Kings. Curry’s shooting may keep them alive, but tailing the Warriors without a boatload of points on the spread is an ill-fated decision. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers went 4-6 against the spread to close out the year, finishing as the fourth seed in the East. They take on the Raptors in the first round and will likely be favorites in all seven games. Cleveland went a disastrous 33-48-1 against the spread this year, and only covered three straight games on two separate occasions, never stretching that streak to four. Toronto has been a feisty team all year, meaning a large spread in favor of Cleveland makes it hard to envision them covering the spread. They have been one of the most overvalued teams all year, they have struggled in the playoffs before, and they will find it difficult to clear the closing totals in the first round this year. 

High Scorers:
Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets finished the year with one of the best NBA offenses of all time, and it is fitting to find them in the high scorers column to close out the season. Denver has gone 8-2 to the over int heir last ten, bringing their total to 52-30 on the season. Nikola Jokic continues to operate with incredible efficiency, and a healthy roster of shooters around him makes them very dangerous on offense. Their closing total has been 230+ points in 18 straight games, but a matchup against the defensive-minded Timberwolves may drop that number. The playoffs are often slower, defensive battles, but any number under 230 makes the over an instant hammer for the Nuggets. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been a top defensive team this year, but they still have scorers on the other end of the court. They have gone 8-2 to the over in their last ten games, as the oddsmakers started dropping their lines far too low in the closing weeks of the year. They have been hovering around the 220 mark as of late, and will likely be in the 215 range against whichever play-in team emerges. The Thunder allowed just 100.5 PPG in the first round last year, so look for a similar defensive shutdown this year, too. If the oddsmakers read into their recent over streak, the under may be the way to go for OKC in the playoffs. 

Low Scorers:
New York Knicks

The New York Knicks went 3-7 on the closing total in the final weeks of the year. Their offense was mediocre, while their defense stepped up to prepare for a tough first round matchup against the Atlanta Hawks in the playoffs. New York and Atlanta both play at a fast pace, meaning this could be the end of the Knicks' streak to the under. The playoffs will see that pace drop slightly, but this looks like the perfect time to ‘buy the dip’ on New York’s offense. Jalen Brunson delivers when the lights shine brightest, and it is hard to imagine the Knicks allowing or scoring fewer than 100 points against Atlanta. 

Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers have gotten healthy at the right time, pairing solid offense with dominant defense. The 76ers enter the play-in tournament on a streak of 7-3 to the under. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George are capable of leading this team to a deep playoff run, and it all starts on the defensive end. The 76ers have been slowing down the pace and stopping transition opportunities, something that will be essential in the first round. If they take care of business against Orlando in the 7 vs. 8 matchup, a first-round matchup against the Celtics would make the under the play. Philly has been dialed in on defense, while the Celtics went 30-52 on the total this year. Any 200+ total between these two teams would make the under an easy pick. 

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers