2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: West Region

by Robert Ferringo - 3/18/2026

March Madness bracket predictions West Region Trey Kaufman-Renn Purdue

Momentum or major letdown?

Momentum is a crucial, yet fickle, component to the NCAA tournament. Any massive March run involves a certain bit of propulsion through the tournament field. Teams get hot – and stay hot – at the right time of the year and it could lead to a magical surge through the bracket.

However, these games are still played by young men. And the emotional element can be difficult to quantify when trying to handicap teams that are being pushed to the absolute breaking point of their psyche.

Momentum vs. major letdown will be an underlying theme of the West Region. The top four seeds – Arizona, Purdue, Gonzaga and Arkansas – each won their conference tournament titles last year. Now we’re all left to wonder which of these teams (if any) will carry over that sensational play into The Big Dance and which ones have had their emotional reserves depleted to the point of collapse.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the West Region:

No. 1 Seed: Arizona Wildcats (-135 to win West Region)

For the fourth time in five years, Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats secured one of the top two seeds in the West Region. Now Lloyd will try to break through what has been a disappointingly low ceiling, with Arizona failing to make it to the Elite Eight in any of those previous attempts. Arizona has one of the most talented teams in the country. They have supercharged freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. They have a mountain in the middle, Motiejus Krivas (whose nickname is literally Mt. Krivas). They have one veteran role players (Tobe Awaka and Anthony Dell’Orso). And they have one of the best point guards in the country, senior Jaden Bradley. Arizona was the best team in the best conference and has convincing nonconference wins over the likes of Florida, Connecticut and Alabama. This team is as legit as it gets.

Arizona NCAA Tournament Predictions: I think it would be a massive upset if Arizona didn’t at least make it to Lloyd’s first Final Four. The West is set up perfectly for the Wildcats. And they should be able to overpower any of the potential opponents that they would have to face in the tournament’s second weekend.

No. 2 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers (+375)

Purdue was the preseason No. 1 team in the country. They didn’t play like it, bumbling to a 24-8 regular season and seventh place in the Big Ten. Things clicked last week for this senior-laden squad, with the Boilermakers playing their best basketball of the season en route to a league championship. Did they peak? Or can this team ride that momentum for three more weeks. Point guard Braden Smith is about to set college basketball’s all-time record for assists (he needs two more) and is a hero at the point. Trey Kaufman-Renn is an All-American caliber forward, and he and Smith work the pick-and-roll like a college Stockton-to-Malone. But for Purdue to keep ascending, they will need their role players – shooter Fletcher Loyer, center Oscar Cluff, etc. – to contribute. Because Smith and TKR are not good enough to do it by themselves.

Purdue NCAA Tournament Predictions: I do think that Purdue peaked last week in Chicago and that they don’t have the juice to make a run to the Final Four. That said, they have a modest path to the Sweet 16, where a potential matchup with Gonzaga would be a must-watch. If Arizona does what they normally do (flop) then Purdue becomes the team to beat. I just don’t see it going that way.

No. 3 Seed: Gonzaga Bulldogs (+700)

Unfortunately, Gonzaga’s title hopes went out the window when Braden Huff, the team’s second-leading scorer at 17.8 points per game, dislocated his kneecap back in January. That doesn’t mean that the Bulldogs aren’t capable of being a force in this region, though, and Gonzaga has lost only twice since getting blown out by Michigan the day before Thanksgiving. Graham Ike feels like he has been playing college basketball for eight years. The 6-foot-9 forward is a bear in the post and clearly Gonzaga’s best player. Tyon Grant-Foster, who played in the NCAA last year with Grand Canyon, gives him a running mate. The rest of the guys are just hungry role players on a team that was No. 7 in the nation in field goal offense (51.5%) and No. 13 in field goal defense (39.7%).

Gonzaga NCAA Tournament Predictions: I think that ceiling for this group would be a Sweet 16 upset over Purdue. If they survive the opening weekend. Only two No. 3 seeds have lost in the first round over the last eight tournaments. The only longer stretch with only two wins by No. 14 seeds was from 2000 to 2009.

No. 4 Seed: Arkansas Razorbacks (+1100)

The beat-up Razorbacks, who are down to just seven players, rode Darius Acuff’s coattails to an SEC title last weekend. Acuff, who was the SEC Freshman of the Year and Player of the Year, is a superstar and has averaged 30 points per game over his last four. He is surrounded by John Calipari’s usual blend of length and athleticism, including 6-foot-10 forwards Trevon Brazile and Nick Pringle. Arkansas is No. 7 in the country in scoring and in the Top 20 in field goal shooting and 3-point shooting. Can they defend? Arkansas allowed opponents to shoot 45.4 percent from the field (No. 256) and surrendered 80 points per game (No. 312).

Arkansas NCAA Tournament Predictions: I think that Arkansas shot their shot at the SEC tournament. I think that this team is primed for a letdown after that huge weekend effort. Also, teams that rely primarily on freshmen – especially freshmen guards – aren’t legit title contenders.

No. 5 Seed: Wisconsin Badgers (+1600)

Wisconsin’s explosive offense topped 90 points 14 times this season. That makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the region, and the Badgers aren’t afraid of anyone. Nick Boyd (20.6 points per game) and John Blackwell (19.0 PPG) the only teammates in the country to both average 19 or more per game. The Badgers should also welcome back stretch-five center Nolan Winter, who missed the Big Ten tournament with an ankle injury. Even without their third-best player, the Badgers still beat Illinois and nearly beat Michigan last week in Chicago. Wisconsin takes (and makes) a ton of 3-pointers, making them a boom-or-bust option in this bracket.

Wisconsin NCAA Tournament Predictions: The Badgers find themselves in the dreaded 5-12 game, and that alone should put them on upset alert. At least one No. 12 seed has won a game in 34 of 40 tournaments and multiple No. 12’s have sprung upsets in the first round three of the past four years. If Wisconsin can survive the opener – watch out.

No. 6 Seed: BYU Cougars (+4000)

College basketball witnessed the best freshman class of all-time this season. And for my money, A.J. Dybantsa was the best of a jaw-dropping bunch. The 6-foot-9 wing averaged 25.3 points per game (No. 1 in the country) along with 6.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists. When Richie Saunders went down with a knee injury in early February – which essentially ended BYU’s Final Four dreams – Dybantsa became the focal point of every team’s defense. It didn’t matter. He and point guard Robert Wright did everything down the stretch for the Cougars. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough on most nights, with BYU losing five of their last nine and limping into this tournament.

BYU Tournament Predictions: At least one First Four participant has advanced to the second round in 12 of the past 14 tournaments. Several have made the Sweet 16 and two have made the Final Four. I think that BYU could have their hands full on Thursday against Texas, and it may be a short stay for Dybantsa before he bolts to the pros.

Best first-round match up: No. 7 Miami (+2.5) vs. No. 10 Missouri

Jai Lucas has done an exceptional job following up Jim Larranaga at Miami. Lucas guided his squad to 25 wins and back to the tournament for the first time in three years. Miami is a bit of a fraud, playing the nation’s No. 337 nonconference schedule and following that up with the 18th ranked slate (of 18 teams) in the ACC regular season. They aren’t bad, though, and forwards Malik Reneau and Shelton Henderson are tough matchups. Missouri isn’t all that good either. But they can score. The Tigers shoot 49 percent from the field as a team and guard Mark Mitchell, who started his career at Duke, can carry his squad to the next round.

Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 5 Wisconsin

Arkansas averages 90.3 points per game. Wisconsin averages 83.3. They are two high-octane offenses that should trade blows for a full 40 minutes, and no lead would ever truly be safe. There’s also the added SEC vs. Big Ten angle and the winner here would be licking their chops for a shot at top-seeded Arizona.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 4 Arkansas (-13.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii

You have to wonder if Arkansas is going to have a letdown after their emotional run in Nashville last week at the SEC tournament. Their top four guys played an average of 37.3 minutes per game during that three-game rush and it may be tough for them to get up for an afternoon tip-off in Portland. Hawaii plays at a deliberate pace and have been very good at hanging around against major conference opponents over the last four seasons. No. 4 seeds are just 4-8 ATS over the last three tournaments, including 0-4 ATS last year, and at least one top four seed has lost in the first round in 15 of 17 NCAA tournaments. Someone is going down in one of the brackets and Arkansas looks as ripe as anyone.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 7 Miami/No. 10 Missouri

I actually don’t see a ton of upsets happening in the second round of this region. This game jumped out because it will at least give us two teams from major conferences going head-to-head. Purdue, like Arkansas, used a lot of energy to win their conference title last week. Will they have enough left to trade blows with a Missouri team that beat Florida (among others) or a Miami group that ran through North Carolina?

Dark Horse team: No. 5 Wisconsin

These guys nearly won the Big Ten tournament (losing in the semifinals by just three points) without their starting center (who is the team’s No. 3 scorer and leading rebounder). If they did that without him, what are they capable now that he’s back? I’m not high on Arkansas so I feel like the Badgers are going to survive the opening weekend. That would put them on a collision course with tournament favorite Arizona in the Sweet 16. If Wisconsin can go to Ann Arbor and beat one No. 1 seed (Michigan) then they are more than capable of blowing up this bracket and beating the Wildcats on a neutral site.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 2 Purdue

I got burned early in the season with the Boilermakers, a team that I felt had all the ingredients for a national title season. Do I climb back on the bandwagon? The Big Ten, collectively, has been a comical failure in the NCAA tournament over the past quarter century. I just have a sinking suspicion that this Purdue squad is going to be relegated to the dustbin of history with an ignominious loss far too early in this tournament.

2026 West Region Predictions: At least one top seed (1-4) has lost in the first round in 15 of the past 17 NCAA tournaments. Last year was one of the two times it didn’t happen. We’ve never had back-to-back tournaments where those top 16 teams all advance. That means we are going to see some upsets. And I think that Gonzaga and Arkansas are two clubs that fit the profile of teams that could get sent home early. That is to say nothing for Wisconsin in the 5-12 or even BYU losing to Texas (the No. 11 seed). I think we’re going to see some wackiness out West in the early rounds. And it’s not like Arizona and Purdue aren’t two programs whose recent decades haven’t been littered with March disappointments. Caveat emptor out West.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writers Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: West Region

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