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March Madness Handicapping: 5 vs. 12 Seeds

by Matt Lowrimore - 3/17/2026

March Madness handicapping 5 vs 12 seeds Christian Anderson Texas Tech

The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is officially set, and with that, everyone will be breaking down and filling out their brackets.

Before doing that, it is important to know that upsets are bound to happen, as they do every year. One of the most talked about ‘upsets’ every year is the 5 vs 12 seed matchup, and that will likely be no different this year.

To give a little history, and going back to 1985, 12-seeds have beaten 5-seeds a total of 57 times, and have about a 35% win percentage. 

In 2025, two 5-seeds were victims of upsets, including the Clemson Tigers (Lost to the McNeese State Cowboys) and the Memphis Tigers (Lost to the Colorado State Rams). Strangely enough, McNeese State is back in the tournament and once again has been set as a 12-seed. 

The 5 vs 12 seed matchups this year look to be just as intriguing, so with that, I have previewed all four of these matchups and have included my best bet for each one.

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2026: #5 vs. #12 Seed Matchups

West Region: #5 Wisconsin Badgers vs #12 High Point Panthers

The first 5 vs 12 matchup will see the Wisconsin Badgers take on the High Point Panthers.

Wisconsin enters this game with a record of 24-10, losing to the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten tournament semifinals. The Badgers averaged 83.0 points per game this season, but are top-heavy, with Nick Boyd averaging a team-high 20.6 points per game and John Blackwell averaging 19.0 points per game. 

High Point, on the other hand, enters this game with a record of 30-4, beating the Winthrop Eagles in the Big South tournament final. The Panthers’ strength lies in their ability to score. High Point is averaging 90.0 points per game this season, led by a scoring duo of Terry Aderson (16.0 points per game) and Rob Martin (15.3 points per game). 

What I like about High Point is that they have a total of eight seniors. They also average about 10.9 steals per game and shoot an average of 49% from the floor. Based on that, I like High Point to keep this game within double-digits. 

My Prediction: High Point Panthers +9.5

South Region: #5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs #12 McNeese State Cowboys

The second 5 vs 12 matchup will be an interesting one between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the McNeese State Cowboys.

Vanderbilt is coming off a loss in the SEC tournament final, but finished the season with a record of 26-8. The Commodores average 86.4 points per game, led by Tyler Tanner (19.1 points per game) and Duke Miles (16.5 points per game).

McNeese State, on the other hand, finished the season 28-5, beating the SF Austin Lumberjacks in the Southland tournament final. The Cowboys are averaging 80.0 points per game this season, led by Larry Johnson (17.5 points per game).

What has me looking at McNeese State in this matchup is the fact that they have been in this situation before. In 2025, the Cowboys upset the Clemson Tigers and now get their shot at Vanderbilt. 

The Commodores are making their second consecutive NCAA tournament, but could struggle to score against a McNeese State defense allowing 66.5 points per game. For that reason, I like McNeese State to cover and possibly win this game outright.

My Prediction: McNeese State Cowboys +11.5

Midwest Region: #5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs #12 Akron Zips

The third 5 v 12 matchup will see the Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Akron Zips. 

Texas Tech enters this game with a record of 22-10, losing in the Big 12 quarterfinals to the Iowa State Cyclones. The Red Raiders are averaging 80.4 points per game, led by Christian Anderson (18.9 points per game).

Akron, on the other hand, finished the season with a record of 29-5, beating the Toledo Rockets in the MAC tournament final. The Zips are averaging 88.4 points per game and shoot an average of 50% from the field. Akron is led by Tavari Johnson (20.1 points per game).

What is stopping me from getting behind the Red Raiders is the absence of JT Toppin. Before he was ruled out for the season, Toppin led Texas Tech in scoring (21.8 points per game). 

Without Toppin, the Red Raiders have gone a mediocre 3-3. Therefore, while Akron might not be at the same level as some of the teams in the Big 12, their efficiency from the field has me backing the Zips to keep this one close.

My Prediction: Akron Zips +7.5

East Region: #5 St. John’s Red Storm vs #12 Northern Iowa Panthers

The final 5 vs 12 seed matchup will see the St. John’s Red Storm take on the Northern Iowa Panthers.

St. John’s enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Red Storm finished with a record of 28-6, beating the UConn Huskies in the Big East tournament final. Further, St. John’s has won six games in a row and 19 of their last 20. They are averaging 81.6 points per game, led by Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 points per game).

Northern Iowa, on the other hand, finished the season with a record of 23-12, beating the UIC Flames in the MVC tournament final. That being said, Northern Iowa averages just 69.9 points per game, led by Trey Campbell (13.7 points per game).

This matchup looks to be a complete mismatch as St. John’s is a much more efficient offense. Northern Iowa could keep this game early, but the size and scoring ability of St. John’s is likely going to prevail. For that reason, I like the Red Storm to win comfortably.  

My Prediction: St. John’s Red Storm -10.5

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