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2026 March Madness Prop Bets with Expert Predictions and Betting Picks

by Jeremy Block - 3/17/2026

March Madness prop bets Boogie Fland Florida Gators

There’s no better time, when it comes to sports betting, than March Madness. And with the majority of the games kicking off in just a few days, now is the time to take some PTO from your job, and start digging into the latest odds for prop bets. 

It doesn't matter how your bracket ended up last year, or how your prop bets crashed and burned. Now’s the time to double down. I’ve got four prop bets right here that should keep these games more fun than ever to watch, and, of course, bring in some extra cheddar. Pull up a chair and let’s get right into it. Here are the prop bets you need to follow up on.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Florida Under 2.5 Tournament Wins -105

The Gators return to the big dance looking to defend last season’s title. After hitting the transfer portal hard, picking up key pieces like Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee, and former Arkansas player Boogie Fland, Florida has the roster and scoring talent to do some damage this tournament. But here’s the thing: I don’t see this team going past three wins. 

I know that might sound crazy, but stick with me for a second.

Sure, returning as the reigning champ already stands for something. But this Florida team is not what it was last year. It’s averaging 85.6 points per game and giving up 72, yet inconsistency has been its defining trait most of the season. Offensively, this team loves to attack downhill and get to the basket - that's where the Gators are dangerous. But push them out to the perimeter and it's a different story, just 30% from deep. 

For the past few months, we’ve seen two versions of Florida. One week they steamrolled Arkansas by 34 points. The next, it got hammered by Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament by 17. Keep in mind, Vanderbilt’s a five-seed going into this tournament. There’s no in-between with this team: it’s either impossible to contain and dominate, or it can’t hit a shot if the basket was the size of a swimming pool.

Most analysts and fans have Florida’s tournament fate looking pretty peachy, maybe even a repeat run. But for how inconsistent it has been, I’m not buying it. Looking at the bracket, Florida will get past a 16-seed in the first round and handle the winner of the Clemson-Iowa matchup. After that? If they run into Vanderbilt, I’m not confident. 

The Commodores already beat Florida this season, have a more lethal offense, and have a deeper rotation. That’s been the decider before, and it’ll be the decider again.

Florida had a great run last season, but repeating as champs? Absolutely no shot. Under 2.5 tournament wins is where I’m laying my money.

Which Seed will win the Tournament? No. 2 +325

This might be the most controversial take, but I’m not backing down: I’m expecting a number two seed to cut down the nets this year, and it’s not even close. Looking at the two seeds: Iowa State, Houston, UConn, and Purdue, I like all four team’s odds to make deep runs and shock the March Madness world.

UConn is fresh off back-to-back championships in 2023 and 2024, and head coach Dan Hurley has made it clear his team wants back on top. It has the track record and personnel to do it again. 

Purdue has arguably the best point guard in the nation running the show. Braden Smith is averaging 14.1 points and 9.1 assists, and this team can shoot, run the floor, and execute in crunch time, and should not be undermined by any means.

As for the Cougars, this team has been foaming at the mouth for a title, and this season may be it. Houston returns to the big dance with one of the nation’s most dangerous defenses, allowing just 62.9 points per game, and have added scoring punch with Kingston Flemings and Emmanuel Sharp combining for over 32 points per game.

Here’s the bottom line: three of the four two seeds have the experience, depth, coaching, and program history to make a statement and win this tournament outright. The one seeds have been inconsistent this year, which just doesn’t give me confidence they’ll pull through. The two seeds have been more consistent all season and have shown they can handle pressure when it matters most. 

SEC With Most Tournament Wins +575

Every March Madness, it’s a race between the ACC, the SEC, the Big Ten, and the Big 12. But looking at who earned the bids and who’s been playing the most consistent basketball this season, I’m putting my chips on the SEC to pick up the most tournament wins.

The SEC had another strong season and leads all conferences with 10 bids, which already gives it a big leg up. Powerhouses like Florida, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama are all offensive-heavy teams that attack, pile on points, and push the tempo—the exact kind of basketball that wins in March.

The Big Ten has had a solid season too, with nine bids and teams like Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State leading the way. But look at the tape: the Boilermakers and Spartans have stumbled in crunch-time situations this year, and being one bid short of the SEC only makes the SEC’s edge even bigger.

As for the ACC, I see it finishing near the bottom in tournament wins. Duke headlines the conference, sure, but I’m not counting on them to carry all the wins. Arizona has had a great season, but there were multiple slip-ups against lower-ranked teams like Kansas and Texas Tech. UNC, Miami, and Louisville aren’t much better, all three with more than eight losses on the season.

Put your money in the right place: the SEC has the depth, the talent, and the style to finish with the most wins once again.

Buzzer Beater in First Round of NCAA Tournament? YES +500

Listen, you shouldn’t be shocked by this pick, and no, it’s not a hot take. March Madness has been a breeding ground for buzzer beaters. I mean, it's literally in the name, ‘Madness’. Bettors should expect nothing different this year.

Since the tournament started in 1944, there have been 47 buzzer beaters, and 19 of them came in the first round. That’s not exactly a fluke. Factor in this year’s bracket: a handful of tight matchups like 8-seed Iowa vs. 9-seed Clemson, 7-seed Miami vs. 10-seed Missouri, and 8-seed Georgia vs. 9-seed St. Louis. These are all teams that play similar styles and can push games down to the wire.

With that many close matchups on the board, there’s just too much potential for a first-round buzzer beater not to happen. History says it’ll happen, and the odds at +500 make it worth taking. Jump on these odds before Vegas adjusts the line.

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