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March Madness Seeds vs. National Championship Odds 2026

by Matt Lowrimore - 3/16/2026

March Madness seeds vs National Championship odds Meleek Thomas Arkansas Razorbacks

The 2026 NCAA Tournament field is set, and one thing that factors into the discussion every season is, “Did the committee get it right?” 

By no means is the committee expected to be perfect with their selection, especially when it comes to where they seed teams. 

That being stated, it is worth discussing which teams appear to be underseeded or overseeded compared to their National Championship odds in this year’s edition of the tournament.

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Underseeded Teams

Listed below are the two teams I believe are underseeded, given how they finished the season: 

Arkansas Razorbacks

The Arkansas Razorbacks enter the NCAA tournament red-hot, taking down the Vanderbilt Commodores to win the SEC Tournament title, finishing the season with a record of 26-8. 

Because of their win in the SEC Final, the Razorbacks currently have National Championship odds of +6000 and are the #4 seed in the West Region.

Despite this being a Region with the Arizona Wildcats as the #1 seed and the Purdue Boilermakers as the #2 seed, Arkansas looks slightly underseeded. 

For starters, the Razorbacks have one of the best scoring offenses in the country, averaging 89.9 points per game. Led by one of the top freshmen in the country, Darius Acuff Jr., who is averaging 22.9 points per game, Arkansas can score on anyone. 

Pair Acuff Jr. with Meleek Thomas (15.4 points per game), Trevon Brazile (13.2 points per game), and Billy Richmond III (11.0 points per game), and you have a team that should be considered a legitimate title contender. 

St. John’s Red Storm

The St. John’s Red Storm also finished the season strong, winning the Big East Tournament Final against the UConn Huskies. The Red Storm ended the season with a record of 28-6.

As a result of this, St. John’s is the #5 seed in the East Region. However, given that the Red Storm have National Championship odds of +7500, they clearly look to be underseeded. 

Not only did the Red Storm finish the season on a 6-game win streak, but they also have won 19 of their last 20 games. Their lone loss during this stretch was against UConn on the road, and as mentioned, they avenged this loss in the Big East Tournament Final.

St. John’s is a team averaging 81.6 points per game, but is allowing just 70.0 points per game. They are led by Zuby Ejiofor, who is averaging 16.3 points per game, but they also have plenty of depth, which makes them a team to consider backing for a deep NCAA tournament run, and even 

Overseeded Teams 

While the teams listed above appear to be underseeded, the following teams are ones I believe are overseeded, given their National Championship odds and current form:

North Carolina Tar Heels

It is fair to say that the North Carolina Tar Heels limped to the finish, yet still managed to secure a #6 seed in the South Region. The Tar Heels lost their last two games, one being to the Duke Blue Devils in the regular-season finale, and the other being to the Clemson Tigers in the 2nd Round of the ACC Tournament.

With that, North Carolina has National Championship Odds of +25000, which does not quite reflect the #6 seed they were given. The Tar Heels had a decent offense this season, averaging 79.8 points per game. That said, they are still without their leading scorer, Caleb Wilson, and have not quite been the same team since he went down with a season-ending injury.

Without Wilson, North Carolina does not appear to have a guy who can take over a game at any time. With that, they may survive the first few rounds, but are likely not a team that you should take to make a deep run, or even bet to win the tournament. 

Alabama Crimson Tide

The Alabama Crimson Tide is another team I believe is heavily overseeded. The Crimson Tide finished the season with a record of 23-9 after being upset by the Ole Miss Rebels in the SEC quarterfinals. Despite that, they are still the #4 seed in the Midwest Region. That being said, Alabama has National Championship odds of +18000, which is not consistent with a #4 seed.

Further, new reports indicate that Alabama’s second leading scorer, Aden Holloway (16.8 points per game), was recently arrested on a felony drug charge. This, of course, puts his availability in serious doubt for the start of the NCAA Tournament. Because of this, Alabama should likely be a team to avoid in terms of making a deep run in the tournament.

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