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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/26/2026 vs. Indiana Pacers

by Spencer Toth - 1/26/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Indiana Pacers Bennedict Mathurin

You have found the right place for the top NBA picks and predictions for every Atlanta Hawks game this season. Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every matchup, providing free best bets along the way. By dialing in on the Hawks, we will be able to churn out a consistent profit throughout the season. 

On Friday night, the Hawks secured a rare home win with a 110-103 victory over the Phoenix Suns. They overcame 21 turnovers to storm back for the win, allowing just 12 points in the final frame to pull away. Atlanta was overdue for a hot night from deep, too, where they went 13/26 on an efficient team showing. Their hustle on defense, combined with solid three-point shooting, will result in a victory more often than not in the modern-day NBA. 

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. We incorrectly tailed the Suns as slight road favorites to beat the Hawks, but clawed it back when Jalen Johnson easily surpassed 32.5 points+rebounds with a 23-point, 18-rebound outing. Our season profit is still over 30 units, so let’s get right into today’s breakdown and free best bets. 

Today, the Atlanta Hawks (22-25) host the Indiana Pacers (11-35) with a special 1:30 PM EST tip-off time. These afternoon games can produce funky results, but the Hawks will still be quite confident they can knock off the Pacers at home. Indiana is just 3-19 on the road this season, and sits 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA. However, they have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games and are getting healthier with Bennedict Mathurin set to return, having not played in three weeks. This is a matchup where the Hawks will be shorthanded with Kristaps Porzingis and Zaccharie Risacher still injured, and they cannot afford to let this one slip. 

It has been quite the 12-month period for the Pacers. Indiana made a shocking run to the NBA Finals last season, taking the mighty Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games. Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles tendon in the series finale and will be out for the entire 2025-26 season. The injury issues didn’t end there for Indiana, as Obi Toppin has only played three games, while Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and TJ McConnell have all missed at least ten games. Pascal Siakam was tasked with holding down the fort, and while the Cameroon native was respectable, the Pacers were too shorthanded to compete with many teams in the league. That is no longer the case, as Indiana is healthy outside of Toppin and Haliburton heading into this matchup. 

The Pacers and Hawks have similar rosters that want to get out in transition, take open threes, and lock down on defense. Neither team has a top-20 NBA superstar, but both have shown that their depth and energy on defense are their greatest attribute. While the Hawks have been able to balance offense and defense with that approach, the Pacers' offense has been the worst unit in the league. They are dead last in offensive rating, true shooting percentage, and effective field goal percentage. They are also inside the bottom-five in PPG and 3-point percentage, and have generally been a disaster on offense. They aren’t doing the little things right either, as they are near the bottom of the league in both rebounds and steals. This has resulted in an ineffective offense getting several fewer possessions than their opponent, which hasn’t been a winning formula for the Pacers this season. 

This is a real opportunity for the Hawks to build some momentum. Porzingis and Risacher are expected back in the coming days, and the Hawks have a looming back-to-back set with the Celtics and Rockets later this week. Atlanta is clinging to the final play-in tournament spot in the Eastern Conference, but is only three and a half games back of the sixth-place 76ers. A home game against the bottom-feeding Pacers is a game the Hawks have to win, even with injuries, if they are serious about contending this year. 

The Hawks will lean on Jalen Johnson again tonight, but this game will be won or lost on the defensive end of the court. Atlanta has the defensive-minded players needed to really cause concern for the Pacers' offense, and this is a spot where they will want to slow things down as often as possible. Indiana can thrive in transition compared to their historically ineffective half-court offense. Getting Mathurin back could be the spark the Pacers have been missing, but with Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker patrolling the perimeter, the Pacers will still struggle to get up quality long-range efforts. Atlanta does a good job of taking away the three-ball at home, and it is not as if the Pacers have a reliable big man to lean on in the paint. There will be lots of small ball in this matchup, and that is exactly what the Hawks have been waiting for as they get very active on the defensive end. 

For the first bet of the night, we will be targeting the matchup between Dyson Daniels and Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard is the primary playmaker for the Pacers, and will have Daniels draped all over him for most of the evening. His point total is at 17.5, which is right on his season average of 17.7 PPG. However, he has struggled on the road; he will have a great on-ball defender guarding him, and the Pacers are getting Mathurin back to take away some of his usage. Nembhard plays his best basketball when he is passing, and a new shooter to use is the invitation he needs. He will still have his moments, but a +100 price on under 17.5 points is a line we can get behind. 

For the second bet of the night, I have been flipping back and forth between the Hawks -220 moneyline and the -5.5 point spread. Rather than choosing between the two, we will put two units on the ML and one unit on the spread. This will still secure a two-unit profit with a win and cover, while we break even as long as the Hawks claim a home win. Indiana’s health won’t suddenly change its issues on both ends of the court, while the Hawks have started to gather momentum heading into the final months of the year. They’ve won three of their last five at home after starting the season 5-11 at State Farm Arena, and will send the Atlanta fans home happy in this afternoon matinee. 

Pick: Bennedict Mathurin Under 17.5 Points 2 Units +100

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline -220 2 Units

Pick: Atlanta Hawks (-5.5) 1 Unit 

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 9-5

Spread: 15-13

Total: 1-8

Player Props: 30-19

Overall: 56-44

Total Units: Up 31.0 Units 

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