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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 1/28/2026 vs. Boston Celtics

by Spencer Toth - 1/28/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Boston Celtics Payton Pritchard

Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every weekday Atlanta Hawks game this season, with the goal of churning a consistent profit throughout the year. By dialing in on the Hawks' rotation, we have been able to stay ahead of the sportsbooks, with more than 35 units of profit so far. The job is far from over, so let’s get right into today’s Hawks breakdown. 

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Monday afternoon, the Atlanta Hawks stormed back against the Indiana Pacers for a 132-116 victory. The final scoreline may look comfortable, but it was far from an easy win for Atlanta. They trailed by 15 points in the third quarter before going on a 25-7 run to claim their first lead of the game at 93-92. That run turned into a 17-0 streak spanning across the third and fourth quarter, as the Hawks really dialed it up on both ends of the court. CJ McCollum sparked the comeback with five early second-half threes to keep things close, while Dyson Daniels found his shooting rhythm, scoring 22 points, including his first three since early December. The Hawks pulled out the win without Jalen Johnson stuffing the stat sheet, which is a good indication that this team may finally be ready to compete. Porzingis and Risacher both sat out, and they will miss tonight’s game too, but the Hawks have managed to stay afloat with three straight wins. 

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect 3-0 night to bring our season total up to 35.9 units of profit. We took both the Hawks' moneyline at -220 and the spread at -5.5, and while it was quite the sweat, the Hawks found a way to win and cover against the lowly Pacers. In the player prop department, we correctly identified that Andrew Nembhard would turn into a passer rather than a scorer with Bennedict Mathurin returning. He finished with just 6 points, well under his 17.5 point line, but tacked on 13 assists in the defeat. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (23-25) head to Boston to take on the Celtics (29-17). The Hawks are looking for a fourth straight win, but things will not be easy as they are 6.5-point underdogs with a +190 moneyline. The injuries to Risacher and Porzingis will once again test the Hawks' depth, as they now face off against a legitimate contender without two starters. Boston is still without Jayson Tatum, while Neemias Queta is doubtful with an illness tonight. Queta may not be a household name, but he is the leading rebounder for Boston and has started 43 games so far this season. The Hawks are not the most intimidating team in the paint, but they do a good job of gang rebounding, and the Celtics will need to match that intensity if they want to defend their home court. 

Most analysts had the Celtics as a fringe playoff team without Tatum in the lineup, but Boston has vastly exceeded expectations through the first 60% of the season. They sit second in the Eastern Conference despite starting 6-7, winning 23 of their last 33 games. Jaylen Brown is averaging 29.6 PPG, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists this season, all of which are career highs. Brown has been able to take and make plenty of threes this season, but he also isn’t afraid to find an open teammate behind the arc if the defense collapses on him. His crafty dribbling allows him to get out of double teams, as Brown has turned into one of the most complete guards on the offensive end in the league. 

Boston’s offense has been very one-dimensional this season, but with the second-best offensive rating, its opponents have still been unable to get stops. The Celtics score the second-most threes in the league with 15.7 per game, but only have the 8th-best three-point percentage as a team. Their snail-like offense is happy to jack up contested shots from behind the arc, which creates lots of long rebounds for their forwards to collect. They don’t move the ball very well on offense, with the 29th most assists this year, but their lack of passing has allowed them to only turn the ball over 11.3 times per game, the fewest in the league. Boston is happy to play at a slow pace on offense, as they know that jacking up a three late in the shot clock is what they wanted to do anyway. An incredible 13 different players in Boston average at least one three-point attempt per game, as their entire roster has the green light to shoot from deep. 

Atlanta is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of three-point defense, but they have been much better as of late, and improved drastically from their 28th-ranked three-point defense last season. Moving on from Trae Young certainly helps their perimeter defense, and the Hawks will need to keep the Celtics in check from behind the arc tonight. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, and Luke Kennard would love to get into a shooting contest, but the rest of the Hawks' lineup does their best work on the inside. The Hawks have to focus on playing their game rather than getting baited by the Celtics tonight, or else this one could quickly get out of hand. 

For the first bet of the night, we will be laying the points with the Celtics. The -6.5 point spread is a very reasonable number for Boston at home, as they have gone 14-7 at TD Garden this year. Atlanta has been a strong road team themselves, but they are still shorthanded and cannot rely on double-digit comebacks to overcome their slow starts. If this one gets away from them early, the Hawks may elect to save energy with a visit from Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets looming tomorrow night. It’s not fun to fade the Hawks, but when the price is right, we have no other choice. 

In the player prop department, we will tail Luke Kennard to have under 1.5 threes at +115 odds. Kennard is a sharpshooter from deep, holding the best active three-point percentage at 43.98%. He has scored at least three threes in three straight games, but this plus money price is a great spot to sell high on Kennard. His three-point defense is suspect, his minutes have been inconsistent, and he will still likely need 4+ attempts to clear this line. At +115, it’s not a fun one, but we will take the under. 

Finally, we will take Payton Pritchard under 5.5 assists at -150 odds. Pritchard is averaging 5.3 assists per game this season, but he has been selfish with the basketball in recent games. Jaylen Brown is still the lead playmaker, and the Hawks' defense will allow Pritchard to shoot rather than playmaker on the perimeter. Active hands from Atlanta have been a key contributor to their success, and that will allow Pritchard to stay just under this line. 

Pick: Boston Celtics (-6.5) 3 Units

Pick: Luke Kennard Under 1.5 Threes +115 1 Unit

Pick: Payton Pritchard Under 5.5 Assists -150 1 Unit

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 10-5

Spread: 16-13

Total: 1-8

Player Props: 31-19

Overall: 59-44

Total Units: Up 35.9 Units 

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