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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 2/20/2026 vs. Miami Heat

by Spencer Toth - 2/20/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Miami Heat Jalen Johnson

You have found the right place for all your NBA betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will break down every weekday Atlanta Hawks game and provide free best bets along the way. Our season total has now ballooned to more than 40 units of profit as we continue to prove we can exploit certain matchups nightly.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA expert picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

Last night, Atlanta picked up a crucial win over the Philadelphia 76ers, prevailing 117-107 in Philly. The victory helped close the gap to sixth place in the East, as a logjammed conference means there is plenty to play for at this stage of the season. Jalen Johnson had a big game on both ends of the court, leading the team with 32 points, while chipping in 10 rebounds, 3 steals, and a block. Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecomb combined for 48 points for the 76ers, but the Hawks' depth advantage prevailed. 

From a betting perspective, we had a perfect 2-0 night. We correctly tailed the Hawks' moneyline in the road underdog role, as Atlanta continues to rack up wins away from home this season. The +100 odds gave us a nice return, as the shorthanded 76ers were no match for a full-strength Atlanta side. For the player prop, we took under 9.5 points for Corey Kispert, as the role player finished with five points in 15 minutes of action. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (27-30) play on the second night of a back-to-back against the well-rested Miami Heat (29-27). This is another crucial game for the Hawks as they look to claw back into in the playoff race, as the ninth-place Hawks currently sit two and a half games back of the eighth-place Heat. Miami has undergone a complete roster overhaul this season, but Erik Spoelstra continues to get the most out of his ever-changing roster. Tyler Herro is expected to play his 12th game of the season as he returns from injury, Bam Adebayo is as consistent as ever, while Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have both left the injury report. Norman Powell is questionable while Terry Rozier is still not with the team, but the Heat are otherwise as healthy as they have been all season. 

This could be a real trap game for the Hawks. Miami has a real rest advantage, the Hawks have struggled at home this year, and Atlanta has been unable to string wins together in recent months. A healthy Hawks side can certainly challenge anyone in the conference, but this will still be an uphill battle for Atlanta on the second night of a back-to-back. 

What has gone on in Miami is something rarely seen in the NBA. For decades, Spoelstra has deployed a slow-paced, defense-first mentality in Miami. This has paid dividends as it has allowed Spoelstra’s side to stay competitive when the deck appeared stacked against them. Few people expected Miami to make the NBA Finals a few years ago, while even fewer have predicted their sustained success this season either. While that blueprint allowed Spoelstra to find success in the past, he has completely flipped the switch to turn Miami into a high-octane, offensive powerhouse. The Heat still have a top-four defense this season, but they now pair that with the fastest pace of play in the league. This is a side that loves to get out in transition, and that is a phase of play the Hawks have really struggled with. The return of a proven scorer in Herro may encourage the Heat to play more half-court offense, but the Hawks' woeful transition defense will still give Miami open baskets on the break. Herro and Adebayo can both score from all three levels, and their pick-and-roll game is hard to slow down. Now that the Heat can pair their pace and excellent work on the defensive end with scoring on offense, they are suddenly a very dangerous team in a wide-open Eastern Conference. 

All hope is not lost for the Hawks, who still have a real shot at closing the gap tonight at State Farm Arena. While their home and road splits are clearly in favor of the Hawks on the road, the reality is that this team should still be better in their home arena. Their 10-15 home record can be blamed on an above-average home strength of schedule this season, but the reality is that the Hawks cannot expect to find any sustained success if they can’t win at home. 

Atlanta’s injury report has not been released yet, but even a full-strength squad will likely fall to Miami. The Heat will get easy baskets in transition, which will be the difference-maker for two strong half-court defenses. Miami plays at the fastest pace of play in the league, which is a nightmare for a team like Atlanta, and they do an excellent job of controlling rebounds. The Hawks finally have some continuity at the center position, but their 25th-ranked rebounding numbers are nowhere close to the Heat’s second-best 46.9 rebounds per game. Adebayo will dominate on the glass, the Heat’s perimeter defense will thrive, and the tired legs for the Hawks will eventually come back to bite them. It is a bit strange to see two teams with similar records feature a road favorite, but given the aforementioned advantages for Miami, it makes absolute sense. The point spread is at -3.5 in favor of the Heat, and that is a number we can absolutely get behind. 

In the player prop department, we will first look at Jaime Jaquez Jr. to get involved on the glass. Adebayo and Kel’el Ware will get plenty of attention, but it is actually the forwards’ willingness to get involved on the glass that sets the Heat apart. Jaquez Jr. will be on Jalen Johnson whenever the Heat aren’t running two-big lineups, and I expect him to crash the glass early and often. He has hauled in at least four rebounds in 15 straight games, and averages 6.0 rebounds in the month of February. We have to swallow -150 odds for over 4.5 rebounds, but we will also sprinkle on 7+ rebounds at +240 odds. A special note, Doc’s Sports will be taking a week-long break from the Hawks segment, with the next article dropping for their March 4th. We will look to add to our stellar profit with these two picks, and will come back as locked in as ever for the final month of the season. 

Pick: Miami Heat (-3.5) 3 Units

Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 4.5 Rebounds -150 2 Units

Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. 7+ Rebounds +240 1 Unit

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