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NBA Betting: Atlanta Hawks Season Long Handicapping 3/18/2026 vs. Dallas Mavericks

by Spencer Toth - 3/18/2026

NBA betting Atlanta Hawks season long handicapping vs Dallas Mavericks Corey Kispert

Doc’s Sports is your home for free NBA picks and predictions for every Atlanta Hawks weekday matchup. We have been truly dominant with our analysis this season, going up more than 70 units so far with a dozen regular-season games to play. 

On Monday night, the Hawks pushed the win streak into double digits, taking down the Orlando Magic 124-112. Despite ‘Magic City Night’ being canceled, it was still one of the most high-energy, entertaining Hawks games of the season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker got the scoring going early, pouring in 24 first-half points before finishing with 41 points. He scored 8 points in the first four minutes and finished the first quarter with 14. Atlanta went into halftime up 67-50, and they pushed the lead as high as 29 on the back of a 13-6 run to start the second half. It was a ruthless team performance from the Hawks, as their excellent ball movement led to 33 assists on 43 made field goals. They held a 10-2 offensive rebounding advantage at halftime. While the Magic made it respectable in garbage time, this was nothing short of a one-sided affair against a legitimate playoff contender. 

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From a betting perspective, we had the best night of the season, posting a 5-0 record. We took the Hawks' moneyline at -150, which was a sweat-free winner to kick things off. In the player prop department, we took Alexander-Walker to go over 17.5 points and score 25+ at +390 odds. He cashed his standard line in the first half and eclipsed 25 points with his first shot of the second half, giving us a sweat-free win. We also tailed Dyson Daniels on the glass. We took over 6.5 rebounds and 10+ at +450, both of which cashed as he finished with 12. A 5-0 night with two big plus money plays capped off the best night of the season. 

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks (37-31) have a real shot at extending their win streak to 11 games as they visit the Dallas Mavericks (23-46). Dallas is 2-10 in their last 12 games and 4-19 in their last 23 this season. It has been a disaster in Dallas this year, as a long list of injuries, underperforming talent, and a revolving door in the trade market has prevented them from gaining any traction this season. Cooper Flagg is the lone bright spot in an otherwise bleak lineup, and this is expected to be a one-sided affair even with the Hawks on the road. Dallas drains the second-fewest threes in the league, meaning it is unlikely that even a hot streak from behind the arc could allow them to pull off this upset. They have the third-worst offense in the league and are bottom-three in many of the major offensive metrics. They couple that with a mediocre defense, so it is no surprise to see the losses piling up for Dallas this season. These two teams met last week, with the Hawks securing a 124-112 victory. Atlanta dominated for much of the contest, jumping out to a huge lead in the first half, but a hot streak from Klay Thompson tied the game in the fourth before Atlanta eventually pulled away. 

While it is never easy to win ten games in a row, the strength of schedule must be accounted for. Atlanta has only faced one team in a playoff spot during this streak, and that was the Magic on Monday night. Their next hardest opponents were the 76ers (37-32, but heavily injured) and the Trail Blazers (33-36, and were missing their best player). The win over Orlando validated their streak slightly, but Atlanta can only beat the teams in front of them. They needed to string together wins to claw back ground in the playoff race, and they did exactly that. They have the ninth-hardest strength of schedule down the stretch, with only four more games against sub-.500 teams after their trip to Dallas. This team will have lots of time to prove themselves if they can squeak into the playoffs, but let’s take some time to unpack what has gone right in Atlanta before getting into today’s picks.
The Hawks are finally healthy outside of a lingering Jonathan Kuminga injury, which has been a contributing factor to their success. Jalen Johnson is an All-Star, but the Hawks don’t have a true ‘takeover’ player like many of the other contenders. Instead, they rely on consistent shooting, effort on both ends of the court, and a deep bench to find success. A second unit of Jock Landale, Kuminga, Zaccharie Risacher, Corey Kispert, and Gabe Vincent is among the best in the league. This has allowed Atlanta to swarm teams on the glass, get going in transition, and keep things fresh if things aren’t going their way. For their starters, the fact that they have two frontrunners for the Most Improved Player Award should tell you all you need to know. Johnson and Alexander-Walker have both gotten dramatically better this year, and that is not counting that Dyson Daniels won the award last season thanks to his excellent defensive play. Onyeka Okongwu has also transformed himself this season, while CJ McCollum is playing excellent basketball at 34 years old. This team is built similarly to the 2025 Indiana Pacers, who were one game away from winning the NBA championship. 

The Hawks are -320 favorites on the moneyline with a point spread of -8.5 in their favor. While I would love to lay the points, we will continue to play it safe with three units on the moneyline. This is a fantastic opportunity for Atlanta to extend their win streak, but a double-digit win on the road may be too much to ask. Dallas is still dealing with injuries, but they have gotten healthy over the last week and have gone 2-2 since their defeat against the Hawks. 

In the player prop department, I cannot believe we are still getting 6.5 rebounds on Dyson Daniels. We have correctly tailed the over on this line in back-to-back games, and Daniels has cleared this total in five straight appearances. Not only are we riding the hot hand on the glass, but Dallas gives up the third-most rebounds to the small forward position, making this an even stronger pick. Daniels is a crucial member of this rotation that will get plenty of minutes, and a lackluster Mavericks offense will offer up plenty of easy defensive rebounding opportunities. We have to lay a -130 price on over 6.5 rebounds, and we will also chase 10+ at +350 for a potentially big payout. 

Sticking with Daniels, we will be double-dipping on the over on points + rebounds with a line of 18.5. He has cleared this total in four of his last five, and should be a part of the offense tonight. Dallas has a really hard time defending the small forward position with their constant rotations, and Daniels is the exact archetype of a player to thrive in this matchup. Put most of your bet on the standard rebounds prop, but a sprinkle on the combo prop is also worth a wager. 

Pick: Atlanta Hawks Moneyline -320 3 Units

Pick: Dyson Daniels Over 6.5 Rebounds -130 4 Units

Pick: Dyson Daniels 10+ Rebounds +350 1 Unit

Pick: Dyson Daniels Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds 2 Units

2025-26 Season Record:
Moneyline: 14-6

Spread: 17-18

Total: 3-10

Player Props: 48-23

Overall: 83-56

Total Units: Up 74.3 Units 

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