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NBA Betting Trends Analysis and Expert Handicapping 2/14/2026

by Jeremy Block - 2/14/2026

NBA betting trends and expert handicapping Sam Merrill Cleveland Cavaliers

Nearly two weeks into February, and the NBA trade deadline has already left us scratching our heads over a few “Wait, what?” trades and signings. Seriously, who thought that was a good idea? These moves have made NBA betting an even trickier game than before.

And with All-Star Weekend here, bettors are scrambling to pull together whatever scraps of knowledge they can to make the right calls for the second half of the season. Lucky for you, I’m here to break it all down and highlight the key betting trends you’ll need to watch out for over the next few weeks. So, with all that said, let’s cut to the chase and dive into the top NBA betting trends you should keep an eye on.

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Take the Over on Cavs as Road Favorites

The Cavaliers have had an up-and-down season covering spreads, and it actually makes sense. With repetitive injuries, inconsistent scoring, and most of the load falling on Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland was a team to fade for a bit. But everything changed at the trade deadline when they acquired James Harden for Darius Garland.

So where does that leave you with making money? Start betting the over on Cleveland games when they're road favorites. Look, the Cavs were already solid on the road when favored. But now with Harden in the fold, who's a much better offensive threat than Garland, they're adding serious scoring and playmaking. Throw in Max Strus returning in the coming weeks and Sam Merrill being red hot lately, and this Cleveland offense just may be one of the most dangerous in the league.

They were already 10-6 hitting the over when road favorites before Harden's arrival. I'm expecting things to only get sweeter here as the season continues and they welcome back injured players

Fade Magic ATS After a Win

Similar to the Cavaliers, the Magic have seen better days with injuries constantly hitting key players. Sitting at 28-25 on the season, which isn't terrible but far from what they showed last season.

They were a defensive powerhouse last season. Now? Not so much. And it shows when it comes to covering spreads. Orlando is 9-19 ATS after a win, and this is a trend you can bank on. Even with a healthier lineup now, the Magic just can't hold its own on spreads coming off a win. And it makes perfect sense.

They're stuck in the middle of the pack. Hard to peg as underdogs or favorites from game to game. Sure, they've got the Wagner brothers and Paolo Banchero dropping 21.3 points and 8.4 rebounds a night, but that's not enough firepower to hang with the Celtics or Knicks. And they're not bad enough to struggle with teams like the Nets either.

Whether you believe in this team or not, the writing's on the wall. The Magic are a team to fade after they pick up a win, no matter how it gets there. Young lineup still figuring things out in a tough conference, players trying to stay healthy—there’s just too many moving parts to trust them covering spreads consistently.

I do see them turning things around late in the season. But right now? Fade them after wins.

Jazz to Struggle Without Jaren Jackson

Heading on over to the Western Conference, it's safe to say the Utah Jazz waved the white flag this season and called it 'rebuilding season,' now 18-38 this season, sitting 13th in the West.

But unexpectedly, the Jazz made a move before the trade deadline bringing in Jaren Jackson Jr, another solid 20+ point scorer, which offers another scoring option alongside Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George. That was the plan until a few days ago, according to NBA news, Jackson Jr is undergoing season ending surgery on a growth plate. Talk about an unfortunate situation for Utah.

With the Jazz down its newest addition and already showing some wear and tear on home spreads, this is a trend to jump ahead on the curve—start fading Utah at home going forward. Yes, even though the Jazz has had a solid track record at Delta Center this year, it's been on a downhill roll as of late, now just 16-13 ATS in home matchups

Am I saying this is a team you can bank on to lose home games now by double digits time and time again? No. But as a betting trend, Utah at home has become a legitimate cash maker in recent NBA matchups, and with a key injury that directly affects its scoring output, bettors should keep them on their radar.

Bank Under On Pacers Road Games

Flipping over to the Eastern Conference, it's been a whirlwind season for the Indiana Pacers. From opening night to now, the injury report has only gotten worse. With starters out for the season, role players sidelined with no timetable, and limited veteran leadership on the floor, this version of Indiana isn't built to outscore any team, and the results have clearly reflected that.

But while the offense has accepted it can't outperform most teams in the league, the defense has picked up the slack, with the Pacers now holding opponents to a league-best 11.5 3-pointers a night, which matters—especially on the road. When playing away games, the Pacers are now hitting the under in 63% of those games (10-17), and are a diamond in the rough for bettors to add to their betting slips for their over-under predictions.

Think about it: with limited firepower and tighter rotations, games naturally slow down and possessions matter more. As long as this roster stays thin, which it will, and the scoring options remain limited, which they have been, betting the under in Pacers road games is a trend no NBA bettor should pass up on in future NBA games.

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