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2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket Advice and Tips for March Madness

by Spencer Toth - 3/17/2026

NCAA Tournament bracket tips Tyler Nickel Vanderbilt Commodores

The most magical time of the year is here, as March Madness is just days away from tipping off. A seasoned college basketball veteran and a blind monkey both have the same odds of crafting a perfect bracket, and that is basically 0%. While Warren Buffett’s $1 billion prize will likely go unclaimed, that won’t stop us from trying to craft the perfect bracket. There will be 63 games needed to crown the champion, and just six wins separate any seed from claiming the ultimate prize. While the perfect bracket will likely be out of reach, there are still a few tips and tricks you can deploy to maximize your odds of coming close. 

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Work Backwards:
Many people, and many bracket websites, will start you in the Round of 64 and allow you to make your picks chronologically. While this makes perfect sense in theory, the better strategy is to select the four teams you envision reaching the Final Four and work backwards from there. It can be easy to drift off and start clicking buttons by the time you reach the 63rd matchup of your bracket, but that is the most crucial pick of all. Putting your predicted regional winners straight into the Final Four makes it much easier for the rest of the bracket to fall into place. 

While there will be upsets along the way, the top seed wins the region 40.6% of the time, with at least one top seed reaching the Final Four in 37 of the last 40 tournaments. A top-three seed wins it 72% of the time, and this strategy prevents you from getting too crazy in the later rounds. The single elimination format with no reseeding prevents overthinking, and working backwards from the later rounds is one of the best strategies for March Madness. 

Focus on the Favorites:

March Madness may be known for its upsets, but the reality is that the favorites dominate this tournament. A Cinderella Story or two will develop, but sticking to the favorites is a much better strategy than trying to pick which Hail Mary will come through. Last year, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for only the second time in March Madness history. While that is unlikely to happen again, you should expect multiple No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four, and the rest to be filled with other top seeds. While there is nothing wrong with mixing in an underdog or two in the opening rounds, calling for a deep tournament run from a double-digit seed is a great way to ensure you are at the bottom of the standings unless a miracle happens. 

Know Your Pool Size:
Not all brackets are created equally. If you are in a one vs. one competition with your friend for who gets the most picks right, simply take every favorite in every matchup. If you are against all of America, you’ll have no choice but to mix in several underdogs or risk being a duplicate bracket. In short, the larger your pool, the more underdogs you will want to take. The more favorites you take, the less variance you will have, which is also a great strategy for not coming in last place, and avoiding a potential March Madness punishment. That may be the primary goal for non-basketball fans roped into a March Madness contest, and limiting your underdogs will help ensure you are in the middle of the pack. Someone will shoot for the stars and fall short, and you just have to edge them out with your boring picks to consider this tournament a success. 

Have Some Fun in the First Round:
Most of the big upsets will happen in the first or second rounds, which historically have the most unpredictable results. Don’t start taking No. 1 seeds to lose to No. 16 seeds, but the 8 vs 9, 7 vs 10, 6 vs 11, and even 5 vs 12 matchups will feature several lower seeds getting through. Even though a 5 vs 12 matchup may feel lopsided, the No. 12 seed pulls off the upset more than 1/3 of the time. Your guess is as good as anyone's here, so don’t be afraid to mix it up before getting back on track down the line. 

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