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2026 Sam Darnold Super Bowl Props Odds with Expert Betting Predictions

by Joey House - 2/1/2026

Sam Darnold Super Bowl props odds and expert betting predictions

Sam Darnold has engineered a remarkable resurgence with the Seattle Seahawks in 2025. After signing a three-year, $100.5 million deal in March following his breakout 2024 with the Vikings and Seattle's trade of Geno Smith, the 28-year-old former No. 3 overall pick led the team to a 14-3 record, the NFC's top seed, and a Super Bowl LX berth against the New England Patriots. He completed 323 of 477 passes (67.7%) for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, earning a Pro Bowl nod and a 99.1 passer rating while fitting seamlessly into Klint Kubiak's rhythm-based, play-action scheme with weapons like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. In the playoffs, he elevated further, including 346 yards and 3 TDs in the NFC Championship win over the Rams, showing poise and big-play ability. Now in the Super Bowl facing the Patriots' aggressive defense in Levi's Stadium on February 8, 2026, with Seattle favored by 4.5 points and a total around 45.5, Darnold's props provide substantial betting value. Here are some key ones, with analysis for each pick.

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Passing Yards: Over/Under 229.5 Darnold averaged 238.1 passing yards per game during the regular season and cleared similar numbers in 11 of 17 contests, often in controlled, positive scripts. In the playoffs, he pushed even higher in key moments, including his 346-yard performance against the Rams. New England's defense generates pressure but allows yardage when opponents sustain drives or create mismatches in coverage, and Seattle's play-action structure is built to exploit those openings. As favorites, the Seahawks can lean on Kenneth Walker III. Yet, Darnold's quick release and accuracy should keep the passing game efficient and active, especially on intermediate routes to Smith-Njigba and Kupp. Our projections place him in the 235 to 250 yard range, giving him a clear path to surpass this number if the game stays competitive early.

Pick: Over 229.5 yards (-113)

Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under 1.5 Darnold threw 25 touchdowns in the regular season, averaging roughly 1.5 per game, and delivered multiple scores in several playoff outings. Seattle's red zone efficiency has improved with Darnold's timing and willingness to attack tight windows, and New England's defense, while strong near the goal line, still allows passing production when opponents sustain drives. As favorites, the Seahawks should generate frequent scoring chances, and their play-action-heavy approach often creates clean looks inside the 20. Our models project Darnold slightly above this threshold, particularly if Seattle establishes rhythm early.

Pick: Over 1.5 TD passes (-119)

Longest Completion: Over/Under 35.5 yards

Darnold has shown consistent ability to connect on the deep ball this season, hooking up with Smith-Njigba on multiple throws of 40 yards and other vertical threats. In the playoffs, he produced several completions of 35 yards or longer against zone coverage. New England's secondary plays aggressive press-man at times, which can be vulnerable to go routes and deep posts when safeties creep toward the line to defend the run. Seattle is likely to take at least one early shot to stretch the field, and Darnold's arm strength should help clear this number.

Pick: Over 35.5 yards (-115)

First Half Passing Yards: Over/Under 114.5

Seattle often opens big games with a measured approach, leaning on the run and short passes to establish rhythm and protect early leads. Darnold's first-half yardage has been modest in several regular-season wins and in one playoff game where Seattle controlled possession. New England's early pressure packages and disguised coverages frequently force checkdowns rather than explosive plays. If the Seahawks jump out to an early lead, expect a slower pace that limits Darnold's early volume. This play aligns with a favored team that manages the clock rather than pushes tempo.

Pick: Under 114.5 yards (-112)

QB Fantasy Points: Over/Under 18.5 (4 pt passing TD, standard scoring) Darnold has cleared 18.5 fantasy points in 11 regular-season games and in both playoff wins, driven by multi-touchdown performances, efficient passing, and timely scramble yardage. His workload remains stable as Seattle's trusted starter, and the Seahawks' offensive structure consistently puts him in scoring situations through play action, red zone rhythm, and high percentage throws. If Seattle pushes into the mid 20s, his fantasy output naturally rises with it, especially given his recent accuracy and strong touchdown conversion rate.

Pick: Over 18.5 fantasy points (-115)

As Super Bowl LX approaches, Sam Darnold has the chance to complete one of the league's most unexpected ascents by securing his first championship as a starter. His poise, efficiency, and fit within Seattle's scheme contrast with the Patriots' youth and defensive aggression, creating a compelling matchup. With the Seahawks favored, these prop markets outline where Darnold can thrive and where New England may challenge him. Bettors should monitor injury updates and line movement, but Darnold's momentum and command of the offense make him a central figure in this title game.

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